重复购买行为与新产品创新扩散

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重复购买行为与新产品创新扩散

作者：郭斌 郭琳 汪玥琦

来源：《浙江大学学报(人文社会科学版)》2014年第03期

［作者简介］ 1.郭斌，男，浙江大学管理学院教授，博士生导师，管理学博士，主要从事技术创新管理、创新策略和知识搜寻研究； 2.郭琳，男，浙江大学管理学院博士研究生，主要从事创新扩散和知识管理研究； 3.汪玥琦，女，浙江大学管理学院博士研究生，主要从事知识管理和管理认知研究。

［摘要］ 新产品扩散研究目前大多数是基于单次采纳行为的研究，而对重复购买行为及其对新产品创新扩散的影响关注不足。通过将产品复杂性视角引入采纳者与非采纳者的动态知识转移过程，建立基于无标度网络结构的三阶段扩散仿真模型来分析重复购买对新产品扩散的影响后发现：第一，重复购买对新产品扩散规模和扩散速度的影响并不是简单地随重复购买比例的提高而增加；第二，产品复杂性对重复购买与新产品的扩散规模和扩散速度起到相反的调节作用；第三，当负面口碑的作用减弱时，重复购买对新产品扩散速度的影响会降低。 ［关键词］ 新产品扩散； 重复购买； 产品复杂性； 复杂网络； 系统仿真； 负面口碑 Repeat Purchase and New Product Diffusion: The Role of Product Complexity

Guo BinGuo LinWang Yueqi

（School of Management， Zhejiang University， Hangzhou 310058， China）Abstract： New product diffusion has long attracted the attention of both industrial practitioners and academic researchers. However， most of the literature is based on firstpurchase analysis rather than on repeat purchase study. In fact， repeat purchase may have strong influence on new product diffusion in terms of diffusion scale and diffusion speed. As such， it is worth noting that in the literature， researchers disagree about the influence of repeat purchase on diffusion scale. We argue that such disagreements can be largely attributed to the neglect of the impact of product attribute. In addition， the influence of repeat purchase on diffusion speed is much less examined in the literature. Thus， this paper attempts to simultaneously investigate the impacts of repeat purchase on diffusion scale and diffusion speed， as well as the potential moderating effect of product complexity on the relationship between repeat purchase and new product diffusion．

In doing so， we use Netlogo 413 to establish a multipleagent model with a scalefree network structure based on the model in Peter van eck ， Wander Jager and Peter Leeflang （2011）. This model extends the basic model in the following aspects. First， we introduce the perspective of product complexity into the analysis of the influence of repeat purchase on new product diffusion. Second， by incorporating the negative effect of wordofmouth and the dynamic process of knowledge transfer in new product diffusion， we employ a threestage model to simulate the