2016美国总统大选双语
唐纳德·特朗普,亦称唐纳德·川普,1946年6月14日生于美国纽约。政治家、商人、作家、主持人。
唐纳德·特朗普曾经是美国最具知名度的房地产商之一,人称“地产之王”,他在宣布竞选总统之前,从未担任过任何公职。依靠房地产和股市,特朗普拥有纽约、新泽西州、佛罗里达州等地黄金地段的房地产,并且创建“特朗普梭运航空”,也是新泽西州“将军”职业足球队老板。特朗普在风景怡人的城镇兴建数幢豪华大厦与别墅,还购买价值一亿美元的豪华游艇、此外还拥有私人飞机。
唐纳德·特朗普当地时间9日凌晨宣布,希拉里·克林顿已经致电给他,祝贺他赢得2016美国总统大选,特朗普将成为美国第45位总统。
Donald John Trump (born June 14, 1946) is an American businessman and the
President-elect of the United States. He is scheduled to take office as the 45th President on January 20, 2017. As the Republican Party's nominee for president in the 2016 election, he defeated Hillary Clinton in the general election on November 8, 2016.
Trump is the chairman and president of The Trump Organization, which is the principal holding company for his real estate ventures and other business interests – a position he has said he will vacate prior to his assumption of the presidency. During his career, Trump has built office towers, hotels, casinos, golf courses, and other branded facilities
worldwide.
Trump was born and raised in New York City and received a bachelor's degree in
economics from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania in 1968. In 1971 he was given control of his father Fred Trump's real estate and construction firm and later renamed it The Trump Organization, rising to public prominence shortly thereafter. Trump has appeared at the Miss USA pageants, which he owned from 1996 to 2015, and has made cameo appearances in films and television series. He sought the Reform Party presidential nomination in 2000, but withdrew before voting began. He hosted and
co-produced The Apprentice, a reality television series on NBC, from 2004 to 2015. As of 2016, he was listed by Forbes as the 324th wealthiest person in the world, and 156th in the United States.
In June 2015, Trump announced his candidacy for president as a Republican and quickly emerged as the front-runner for his party's nomination. In May 2016, his remaining
Republican rivals suspended their campaigns, and in July he was formally nominated for president at the 2016 Republican National Convention. Trump's campaign has received unprecedented media coverage and international attention. Many of his statements in interviews, on Twitter, and at campaign rallies have been controversial or false. Several rallies during the primaries were accompanied by protests or riots. On October 7, a 2005 audio recording surfaced in which Trump bragged that fame made women amenable to kissing and groping; multiple women accused him of forcibly doing so shortly thereafter. He apologized for the 2005 comments and denied the allegations, describing them as part of a wider smear campaign.
Trump's platform included renegotiation of U.S.–China trade deals, opposition to
particular trade agreements such as NAFTA and the Trans-Pacific Partnership, stronger enforcement of immigration laws together with building a wall along the U.S.–Mexico border, reform of veterans' care, repeal and replacement of the Affordable Care Act, and tax cuts. Following the November 2015 Paris attacks, Trump called for a temporary ban on Muslim immigration to the United States, later stating that the ban would focus instead on countries with a proven history of terrorism, until the screening for potential terrorists is improved.
许多学者认为特朗普对美国民众、特别是低教育白人群体的吸引力是其胜选的重要原因,美国社会精英阶层虽然对特朗普“政治不正确”的表态进行了强有力的口诛笔伐,但是美国社会“民粹化”的倾向最终压倒了精英阶层对媒体的全面操控。特朗普当选与英国“脱欧”是近年来美国等西方国家民粹化浪潮的主要标志。
特朗普当选与美国衰落
其实,对于美国的民粹化要看到其实质,特朗普提出“让美国再次伟大起来”,意味着美国当前的衰落,这与美国的政治精英的判断是背道而驰的。美国的内外政策一直都是围绕着巩固美国的全球领导地位进行的,其“普世价值”的推广,即美国的全民自由、种族平等与民主理念应该为各国接受为圭臬,同时也是美国国内“政治正确”的标杆,是任何美国人在宣示自身价值观时不可以触碰的底线;但是与此同时,美国国内的种族歧视却日益严重、排斥移民由来已久、社会阶层逐渐分化,加之穷兵黩武的“人权高于主权”的对外政策实践,使世人逐渐认识到美国政治制度的劣根性所在,即理念宣示与政策实践的脱节,“说一套,做一套”“只说不做”成为美国国内治理和对外战略的常态化现象。而特朗普则是戳穿这个谎言的人,因此一个几乎背负了所有“政治不正确”的指责却得到了一半以上美国民众认可的新一任美国总统诞生。美国民粹化思潮终于完全浮出水面,简而言之,许多底层白人宁可忍受种族和移民歧视的不道德谴责却高度认可特朗普通过排斥移民,给本国人民工作机会和幸福生活的承诺,因为工作饭碗比任何价值观都重要。
从美国的投票构成和选票分布来看,特朗普的言论更能打动美国普通民众的内心。本次选举,特朗普不仅在摇摆州上表现突出,在一些事先被认为是民主党票仓,比如拥有10张选举人票的威斯康辛州,特朗普的表现也领先于希拉里。
美国的衰落是一个永久性话题,赞成者无法否认其长期性和阶段性调整,反对者同样也不能无视美国、欧洲持续增长的反全球化倾向。因此,任何一种社会制度都需要正视现实,革故鼎新。美国立国之初,白人为主体,虽然历经多次制度改革和调整,但是有色族裔在美国的政治生活中一直不是主流。2016年6月《华尔街日报》消息称:如果55岁以上美国人中有3/4为白人,那么在18至34岁美国人中白人仅占56%,在未成年中甚至低于50%。以此类推,到本世纪中叶,白人成为少数族裔。因此,本次美国大选,美国白人的危机感增强,尤其是白人蓝领超乎寻常的高投票率为特朗普胜选立下汗马功劳。民调结果显示,特朗普在没有受过大学教育的白人中支持率高达65%,而希拉里在这一群体中的支持率只有29%。民粹主义成为主流,而许多支持特朗普的白人怕被扣上“政治不正确”的标签,不愿表露自己真正的投票倾向,直到选举日才投下沉默的“抗议票”。而希拉里团队及其支持者对选情过
于自信,再加上美国政界、学界、商界和主流媒体几乎一边倒地反对特朗普,从而造成美国选前民调集体误判。有别于奥巴马时期的“府院之争”,共和党在本次大选中可谓战绩出色,不仅保住了参众两院的多数,同时还在八年后成功入主白宫,所以特朗普还神奇地具备了成为强势总统的基本条件,这都不是偶然性可以解释的。
特朗普对华政策与中美关系未来走向
“反全球化”成为特朗普的特定标签,因此特朗普的对外政策也十分引人注目。中美关系是国际关系领域最重要的一对双边关系,特朗普上台后中美关系的走向显得扑朔迷离。有人认为利好居多,因为特朗普主要关注国内改革,因此美国亚太战略再平衡的压力会减缓,中国紧张的周边局势会舒缓一些;也有人认为,特朗普一直认为中国的崛起夺走了美国工人的就业机会,因此中美的贸易摩擦将会加剧,而中美经济关系是中美关系的压舱石,这样中美关系反而会更加糟糕。
事实上,中美关系多年来韧性十足,有其自身的规律性,尤其是冷战结束后中美关系呈现高度复杂性和震荡阶段性的基本特征。冷战刚刚结束,一直主张对华友好的老布什领军多个西方国家发起对中国的全面制裁,一时间“黑云压城城欲摧”,希望苏东剧变的最后一块多米尼诺骨牌效应在中国显现。克林顿时期,在对华最惠国待遇问题上刁难不断,此外美国在人权、台湾、西藏等问题上不断指责中国,1996年台海危机和1999年炸馆事件都一度使中美两国关系陷入深度危机。小布什时期,上任初期即称要“先发制人”,视中国为“战略竞争对手”,还要“不惜一切代价协防台湾”,一度公开支持“台独”。奥巴马任内推出了“美国亚太战略再平衡”,在钓鱼岛问题上支持日本,在南海问题上挑起事端,中国周边一度热点频现,其中TPP明显是美国在经贸上制约中国的配套战略。但是中美关系“斗而不破”,其中中国的崛起与实力增强既是美国的忌惮所在,又是中美关系的稳定所在,而中国成熟的对美战略则是中美关系的关键所在。盘点冷战后中国的国际环境,中国一直积极培育中美共同的利益交汇点,并且在与美“有理、有利、有节”斗争中和平发展,实现了自身国家利益的最大化。伴随着高度复杂的中美博弈,中国的GDP总量走到了世界第二位,而2013年在别具一格的“习奥会”中,双方就构建不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的新型大国关系达成重要共识。习近平总书记多次强调,中美经贸合作潜力巨大,中国有3亿中等收入人群,未来十年还会翻一番。所以,美国一方面力推TPP,有意排除中国在亚太区域的经贸主导权;另一方面中美双方却正在推进双边投资协定(BIT)谈判,美方从中国快速发展中分一杯羹的想法尽在不言中。
中美关系在多维矛盾中进行着最为复杂的演进。而预计特朗普的对华政策不会离开美国对华战略的窠臼,制造中美关系的麻烦程度也不会超过冷战初期的紧张态势,但是美国对华防范意识和遏制举措将会持续,在经贸领域可预见会摩擦不断。特朗普虽然反对TPP,但是一直将美国人的工作机会的流失归咎于中美贸易的不平衡,同时美国共和党还掌握了参众两院的多数席位,因此民粹色彩浓厚的特朗普在对华经贸战略中也许会祭出比奥巴马更加具有保护主义色彩的举动,对其杀伤力要充分评估。
美国历史不乏“非主流”总统,如里根是电影明星,小布什的英语水平较差,奥巴马没有基层工作经验,因此上任之初面对复杂的中美关系常常不知所措,甚至沿袭竞选时期过激的竞选语言体系。但是,美国总统后面支撑的是一个专业的执政团队和庞大的智库体系,最终能够使美国对华政策重回维护美国国家利益的正确轨道,即遏制和接触并重,防范与合作
共存。当然小布什对华政策回调较慢,2001年“9·11”事件后才使中美关系回到合作的正常轨道。奥巴马的亚太战略再平衡则是对中国国力评估与国际形势研判后的全面回调。所以,许多美国政要包括前总统老布什都经常提醒中国朋友千万不要过度解读美国总统候选人在竞选期间的“语言暴力”。当然,事实胜于雄辩,对特朗普的对华战略以及中美关系的走向还要冷静评估,所谓“热点问题冷观察”。
特朗普崇尚“美国优先”,并不愿意过多干涉到亚太地区局势中。未来,美国很有可能在亚太地区呈现收缩状态,这将为中美保持良好关系奠定重要基础。 国家主席习近平14日同美国当选总统特朗普通电话。习近平祝贺特朗普当选美国总统,并就中美关系发展交换看法。虽然世界重要国家的现任领导人和另外一位准备当然总统的候任领导人之间的电话沟通,是基于礼仪的国际惯例,但中美两国这两位领袖之间的越洋电话却寄托了太多的希望。
美国时间11月8日的2016年美国总统大选投票日,是一个注定会留下深刻烙印的日子。选举前普遍不被看好,没有任何政府工作经历和从政资历的美国亿万富翁、共和党候选人特朗普,击败民主党候选人希拉里,冲破美国诸多主流媒体对特朗普的“集体围剿”,击碎美国的欧洲和亚太盟友的诸多反对和排斥,赢得2016年美国总统大选。世界在这一天确实充斥了惊愕和诧异。
2017年1月20日,特朗普将按照法定的程序成为美国未来四年的总统。随之而来,中美关系也将进入新的调试期。
中美关系是21世纪最重要、但又最复杂的双边关系,中国社会同样充斥着对特朗普本人、他的内外政策、以及未来他会在美中关系中有何作为的激烈争论和分歧。不过,稳定和发展中美关系、造福两国人民和世界的决心,完全可以超越对美国总统个体情怀与价值的怀疑。
什么是中美合作的方向、路径和目标?习近平主席在通话中给出的信息非常直接和坦诚,那就是中美“双方要加强协调,推动两国经济发展和全球经济增长,拓展各领域交流合作,让两国人民获得更多实惠,推动中美关系更好向前发展”。 中国领导人简单实在的话语得到了特朗普先生的热情回应。
就特朗普目前表述的外交政策来看,特朗普崇尚“美国优先”,并不愿意过多干涉到亚太地区局势中。未来,美国很有可能在亚太地区呈现收缩状态,这将为中美保持良好关系奠定重要基础。特朗普又特别重视经济,考虑到中国市场对美国的重要意义,特朗普应该不会在中美良好关系方面,做出什么太出格的事。特朗普目前在叫嚣要对中国征收惩罚性关税。这一做法具有很强的贸易保护特性,值得中国警惕。但是我们也无须过于紧张,毕竟这还只是特朗普的单方面说法,离真正的政策形成,还有不小距离。
总体来说,我们认为在特朗普任内,中美之间维持良好关系的大趋势不会改变。中国领导人已经向特朗普伸出友谊与合作之手,我们期待他能够还之于对中国的信任和对中美关系坚持合作的决心。□朱锋(南京大学国际关系研究院院长)
“反全球化”成为特朗普的特定标签,因此特朗普的对外政策也十分引人注目,
特朗普上台后中美关系的走向显得扑朔迷离。
许多学者认为特朗普对美国民众、特别是低教育白人群体的吸引力是其胜选的重要原因,美国社会精英阶层虽然对特朗普“政治不正确”的表态进行了强有力的口诛笔伐,但是美国社会“民粹化”的倾向最终压倒了精英阶层对媒体的全面操控。特朗普当选与英国“脱欧”是近年来美国等西方国家民粹化浪潮的主要标志。
特朗普当选与美国衰落
其实,对于美国的民粹化要看到其实质,特朗普提出“让美国再次伟大起来”,意味着美国当前的衰落,这与美国的政治精英的判断是背道而驰的。美国的内外政策一直都是围绕着巩固美国的全球领导地位进行的,其“普世价值”的推广,即美国的全民自由、种族平等与民主理念应该为各国接受为圭臬,同时也是美国
国内“政治正确”的标杆,是任何美国人在宣示自身价值观时不可以触碰的底线;但是与此同时,美国国内的种族歧视却日益严重、排斥移民由来已久、社会阶层逐渐分化,加之穷兵黩武的“人权高于主权”的对外政策实践,使世人逐渐认识到美国政治制度的劣根性所在,即理念宣示与政策实践的脱节,“说一套,做一套”“只说不做”成为美国国内治理和对外战略的常态化现象。而特朗普则是戳穿这个谎言的人,因此一个几乎背负了所有“政治不正确”的指责却得到了一半以上美国民众认可的新一任美国总统诞生。美国民粹化思潮终于完全浮出水面,简而言之,许多底层白人宁可忍受种族和移民歧视的不道德谴责却高度认可特朗普通过排斥移民,给本国人民工作机会和幸福生活的承诺,因为工作饭碗比任何价值观都重要。
从美国的投票构成和选票分布来看,特朗普的言论更能打动美国普通民众的内心。本次选举,特朗普不仅在摇摆州上表现突出,在一些事先被认为是民主党票仓,比如拥有10张选举人票的威斯康辛州,特朗普的表现也领先于希拉里。
美国的衰落是一个永久性话题,赞成者无法否认其长期性和阶段性调整,反对者同样也不能无视美国、欧洲持续增长的反全球化倾向。因此,任何一种社会制度都需要正视现实,革故鼎新。美国立国之初,白人为主体,虽然历经多次制度改革和调整,但是有色族裔在美国的政治生活中一直不是主流。2016年6月《华尔街日报》消息称:如果55岁以上美国人中有3/4为白人,那么在18至34岁美国人中白人仅占56%,在未成年中甚至低于50%。以此类推,到本世纪中叶,白人成为少数族裔。因此,本次美国大选,美国白人的危机感增强,尤其是白人蓝领超乎寻常的高投票率为特朗普胜选立下汗马功劳。民调结果显示,特朗普在没有受过大学教育的白人中支持率高达65%,而希拉里在这一群体中的支持率只有29%。民粹主义成为主流,而许多支持特朗普的白人怕被扣上“政治不正确”的标签,不愿表露自己真正的投票倾向,直到选举日才投下沉默的“抗议票”。而希拉里团队及其支持者对选情过于自信,再加上美国政界、学界、商界和主流媒体几乎一边倒地反对特朗普,从而造成美国选前民调集体误判。有别于奥巴马时期的“府院之争”,共和党在本次大选中可谓战绩出色,不仅保住了参众两院
的多数,同时还在八年后成功入主白宫,所以特朗普还神奇地具备了成为强势总统的基本条件,这都不是偶然性可以解释的。
特朗普对华政策与中美关系未来走向
“反全球化”成为特朗普的特定标签,因此特朗普的对外政策也十分引人注目。中美关系是国际关系领域最重要的一对双边关系,特朗普上台后中美关系的走向显得扑朔迷离。有人认为利好居多,因为特朗普主要关注国内改革,因此美国亚太战略再平衡的压力会减缓,中国紧张的周边局势会舒缓一些;也有人认为,特朗普一直认为中国的崛起夺走了美国工人的就业机会,因此中美的贸易摩擦将会加剧,而中美经济关系是中美关系的压舱石,这样中美关系反而会更加糟糕。
事实上,中美关系多年来韧性十足,有其自身的规律性,尤其是冷战结束后中美关系呈现高度复杂性和震荡阶段性的基本特征。冷战刚刚结束,一直主张对华友好的老布什领军多个西方国家发起对中国的全面制裁,一时间“黑云压城城欲摧”,希望苏东剧变的最后一块多米尼诺骨牌效应在中国显现。克林顿时期,在对华最惠国待遇问题上刁难不断,此外美国在人权、台湾、西藏等问题上不断指责中国,1996年台海危机和1999年炸馆事件都一度使中美两国关系陷入深度危机。小布什时期,上任初期即称要“先发制人”,视中国为“战略竞争对手”,还要“不惜一切代价协防台湾”,一度公开支持“台独”。奥巴马任内推出了“美国亚太战略再平衡”,在钓鱼岛问题上支持日本,在南海问题上挑起事端,中国周边一度热点频现,其中TPP明显是美国在经贸上制约中国的配套战略。但是中美关系“斗而不破”,其中中国的崛起与实力增强既是美国的忌惮所在,又是中美关系的稳定所在,而中国成熟的对美战略则是中美关系的关键所在。盘点冷战后中国的国际环境,中国一直积极培育中美共同的利益交汇点,并且在与美“有理、有利、有节”斗争中和平发展,实现了自身国家利益的最大化。伴随着高度复杂的中美博弈,中国的GDP总量走到了世界第二位,而2013年在别具一格的“习奥会”中,双方就构建不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢的新型大国关系达成重要共识。习近平总书记多次强调,中美经贸合作潜力巨大,中国有3亿中
等收入人群,未来十年还会翻一番。所以,美国一方面力推TPP,有意排除中国在亚太区域的经贸主导权;另一方面中美双方却正在推进双边投资协定(BIT)谈判,美方从中国快速发展中分一杯羹的想法尽在不言中。
中美关系在多维矛盾中进行着最为复杂的演进。而预计特朗普的对华政策不会离开美国对华战略的窠臼,制造中美关系的麻烦程度也不会超过冷战初期的紧张态势,但是美国对华防范意识和遏制举措将会持续,在经贸领域可预见会摩擦不断。特朗普虽然反对TPP,但是一直将美国人的工作机会的流失归咎于中美贸易的不平衡,同时美国共和党还掌握了参众两院的多数席位,因此民粹色彩浓厚的特朗普在对华经贸战略中也许会祭出比奥巴马更加具有保护主义色彩的举动,对其杀伤力要充分评估。
美国历史不乏“非主流”总统,如里根是电影明星,小布什的英语水平较差,奥巴马没有基层工作经验,因此上任之初面对复杂的中美关系常常不知所措,甚至沿袭竞选时期过激的竞选语言体系。但是,美国总统后面支撑的是一个专业的执政团队和庞大的智库体系,最终能够使美国对华政策重回维护美国国家利益的正确轨道,即遏制和接触并重,防范与合作共存。当然小布什对华政策回调较慢,2001年“9·11”事件后才使中美关系回到合作的正常轨道。奥巴马的亚太战略再平衡则是对中国国力评估与国际形势研判后的全面回调。所以,许多美国政要包括前总统老布什都经常提醒中国朋友千万不要过度解读美国总统候选人在竞选期间的“语言暴力”。当然,事实胜于雄辩,对特朗普的对华战略以及中美关系的走向还要冷静评估,所谓“热点问题冷观察”。
特朗普奇迹般的胜利几乎惊掉了全世界的下巴。台湾的小蔡同学押错了宝,日本的安倍押错了宝,法国的奥朗德押错了宝……全世界的政要们狼狈不堪,但又必须正视选举的结果,这是现实的残酷与吊诡之处。
当然,中国的吃瓜群众也是很关心美国大选的,朋友圈各种直播一直在刷屏,简直比自己家还上心,总算是过了一把参政议政的干瘾。特朗普当选美国下届总统,这已成为政治的现实。那么,从现实政治的角度来看,特朗普时代的中美关系又将如何发展呢?今天我们不妨来前瞻性的预估一下。
要预估特朗普时代中美关系的发展,有三个因素必须正视:其一,特朗普本人的特质与立场倾向;其二,中美关系的现实结构及其惯性;其三,其他国家因素对于中美关系的影响。
首先来看特朗普本人。其在竞选阶段涉及中国的表态很多是前后矛盾的,比如前脚公开指责中国操纵汇率、抢走了美国人的工作机会,后脚又在华裔选民面前高呼他爱中国和中国人等等。别忘了,老特是个商人,商人逐利,这意味着只要对他和美国有好处,他可能比较不会在乎什么节操和原则。
换言之,特朗普虽然是外交白痴,虽然在某些领域和议题上会表现出激烈冲撞甚至对抗的一面,但逐利的本性决定了他的精明和狡猾,决定了他的外交政策的“可塑性”一面。只要中国方面让利,让他尝到甜头,他就几乎一定会变脸。与希拉里对于人权等议题的坚持相比,特朗普似乎不大可能在这些问题上向中国政府施加强大的压力(好桑心)。另外,中美间大国博弈的战场,可能也会从希拉里所力推的“亚太再平衡”和“重返亚洲”,转移到其他的领域(最可能是经贸方面),理由很简单,特朗普是坚定的美国优先论者,不太可能为了亚洲的几个小兄弟的事而跟中国红脸,进而损害美国自身的利益。
再来看中美关系的现实结构及其惯性。中美之间,利益交错纵横,结构面向复杂,互动模式也具有复杂性。这些年来双方你来我往,时而笑脸相迎,时而冷眼相向,一边握手一边较劲,彼此也已在相当程度上习惯了这种互动,具有相当的思维与体制上的惯性。所以即使特朗普上台后,不走奥巴马希拉里的老路,但也不会太过荒腔走板。
最后是不可忽略的“其他国家因素”。这里主要以日韩与东南亚国家为例进行分析。日本是美国亚太再平衡战略的急先锋,这些年来亦步亦趋,步步紧随,因此日本的安倍政府一定想在与美国继续保持密切的同盟关系的同时,继续怂恿美国延续其亚太再平衡的战略,以遏制中国在地区影响力的膨胀。韩国方面,因为有一个不时抽风的邻居,所以韩国在与美国保持密切的盟友关系方面有独特的关切。韩国虽不至于积极参与美国的遏华战略,但也一定会敦促美国向中国施压,以促使朝鲜方面不至于行为失控。东南亚诸国,尤其是与中国在南海问题上有利益冲突的国家,一直是借力打力,希望借重美国的地区性影响力以助力其与中国的南海博弈。所以它们必然也希望美国能够继续甚至是强化其插手南海事务的外交政策。当然,怂恿归怂恿,期待归期待,特朗普时代的美国最终会与中国交往与交手,其着眼点和核心关切,必然是美国自身的国家利益。
以上从三个方面简略分析了特朗普时代中美关系的影响因素与可能情势。具体靠不靠谱,如何发展,作为吃瓜群众,我们就拭目以待咯!
中美,作为当前这个世界上最具有活力和经济实力的两个大国,秉持相互尊重,合作共赢的模式才能够对双方的发展带来机遇,才会给这个世界带来和平和稳定发展。中国对于美国从来没有进行挑衅和制造矛盾,恰恰是美国这些年来一直不断的在中国周边制造摩擦,在双边的贸易往来上设置障碍,以图阻碍中国的发展之路,长期这样的话,中美之间即便不爆发战争,也会陷入一个持续紧张的双边态势,这不利于中国,也不会有利于美国。
而本次选举美国人民选择了特朗普,也就是选择了美国在未来将会改变这种强横的对外策略,改而实行相对单纯的对外交往,不再以阻止他国发展为目的而是致力于自身发展为重点的治国纲要。美国的这种改变,在给这个世界带来稳定的同时,更会让中美关系处于相对平和的发展区间,从而迎来中美关系的崭新一面。
这是世界之福,更是美国之福。
美国现任总统奥巴马在任期内大力推行“亚太再平衡”战略,曾引起一些亚洲国家的不满。观察员尹卓分析,特朗普上任后,将继续推行“亚太再平衡”战略,但核心内涵将与奥巴
马时期有所不同,会做出重大调整。实际上“亚太再平衡”战略,早期是小布什提出来的,是两党一致的,但是这个战略一定会进行修订,而且可能幅度比较大。因为现在美国确实经济力量下滑非常厉害,“亚太再平衡”战略消耗了美国大量的资源,美国没有钱真正实践在“亚太再平衡”战略中所提出的政治、外交特别是军事上的设想。比如说6个航母编队到亚太,小布什提出来到现在已经十一年了,还没有一个航母编队调到亚太。另外60%攻击性核潜艇进亚太,同时14艘弹道导弹核潜艇,8艘到亚太,这些目标十几年都没有实现过。恐怕特朗普虽然要增加军费,但主要是增加研制和采购费,在海外的部署费,尤其是在亚太,特朗普恐怕要进行基地的一定程度的收缩。
观察员尹卓指出,特朗普时代的美国,会让日韩等盟国承担更多自身的防务费和责任,但是不会根本性改变美国在亚太的前沿军事部署和同盟体系。这是非常重要的一个经济因素,就是让日本、韩国等美国亚太同盟国,包括欧洲盟国,比如北约盟国,美国一直要求北约盟国增加军费占GDP的比例,在亚太也会这样,要求承担更多的军费负担。美国已经难以为继,
在日本、韩国几百处的军事基地一定会收缩,这与让盟国承担更多的费用是一致的。另外可能还有些大型部署,联合巡航、大型的军演可能会逐步地取消一部分,这些对盟国做出的承诺都会有一些修订。但是基本的承诺,比如延伸核保护,另外美日同盟,是美国亚太安全的基石,像这些基本的状况可能不会进行调整。
特朗普在竞选时也曾表态说,将恢复美国绝对的军事力量,是否意味着未来美国的全球军事部署将呈扩张之势?观察员尹卓认为,在全球军事部署方面,特朗普执政初期会以收缩为主,但是在军费的投入上,特别在高新武器装备的研制费、采购费上,可能会有一定程度的增加。特朗普对美国军事力量的依赖是显而易见的,因为特朗普女儿在帮助竞选中,始终说要变成一个强大的美国,让美国更加强大。这种强大主要表现在军事力量上,所以这是特朗普的竞选诺言,我认为特朗普增加军费的诺言不会消减。但是增加到什么方向,不是增加在美国在全球的干预参与战争上,而是参与到内部,比如说给军人更高的福利,同时增加研制费,保持美国在高科技领域始终的引领地位,另外增加一部分高技术装备的采购,这都是特朗普可能的今后投向。
观察员尹卓认为,特朗普时代,中美关系的发展机遇与挑战并存。美国对中国将采取“接触”和“遏制”两手,其中“接触”主要表现在经济上,而“遏制”则体现在军事和安全上。中美关系应该说美国对中国仍然是接触和遏制这两手,但同时特朗普会对过去的美国“亚太再平衡”战略,主要针对中国进行修正,因为美国要发展经济,就离不开中国,特别在亚太地区,经济合作伙伴最大的就是中国,必须保持跟中国的合作,
仅仅保持跟日本、韩
国所谓盟国合作,解决不了美国的经济问题。所以跟中国合作,一定是美国的一个趋向。但是这里我们也要注意,美国增加军事力量很大程度上是针对中国的。
中美关系的发展始终有着向前推动的动力和活力,在遇到困难危机的时候始终显示一种韧性和战胜危机生命力。把握中美关系非常重要的是要把握“三性”,重要性、战略性、全局性,这已经超越中美关系范畴,具备了世界影响力。只有站在世界的高度和全球的角度,才能够真正把握中美关系的发展和走向。
中美关系是当今世界上最重要的也是最复杂的双边关系。重要是因为具有战略性、全局性。复杂是因为中美关系的重要性、全局性、战略性还不是全部,还具有困难性、复杂性、长期性。中美关系发展动力、活力、生命力是来自于它的重要性、战略性、全局性。中美关系遇到困难、矛盾、冲突又是怎么产生的?政治制度、意识形态、价值标准这三个因素组成一种因素,绝对是中美关系发展过程当中消极因素。现在中美之间这些问题解决了吗?恐怕没有解决。这三个因素过去、现在、今后恐怕也会起作用。
修昔底德陷阱,掉入还是超越?2008年是一个时间的节点,从那时候起,中美两国出现另外两个方面的冲突和矛盾。第一矛盾是核心国家利益矛盾。2008年中国提出核心国家利益,之后按照主权、安全、发展来界定国家核心利益。第二是谁在南海搞军事化。美国是颠倒黑白,说中国在搞。中美想在南海打仗吗,这一点底线双方都能够守住。所以在最后找到解决办法之前,能够做得就是管控,在管控过程当中去探索新的思路和办法,去缓解甚至是解决中美核心国家利益的矛盾和冲突。
2008年出现的核心国家利益矛盾问题造成了中美两国在诸多问题上这种冲突,甚至是局部问题短暂的对抗,因此中美关系情况出现了“两加”情况:合作在加强,冲突在加剧。
2008年出现的另一个非常严重的矛盾和冲突,就是结构性矛盾。什么是结构性矛盾?一般是指在特定历史条件,崛起国和霸主国处理不好矛盾,双双掉进“修昔底德陷阱”:从冲突到对抗,大部分的情况下以战争告终,以战争解决问题。中国和美国现在就被推到历史的风尖浪口,面临这个矛盾,是超越这个修昔底德陷阱,还是处理不好两国矛盾掉入这个陷阱?
2011年,中美发表联合声明,那时中美核心国家矛盾和结构性矛盾来势凶猛,中美两国新一轮相互猜疑来得比较猛烈。2012年2月14日,习近平和奥巴马第一次会晤,正式提出构建新型中美关系。2013年6月,习近平和奥巴马第二次会晤,提出中美新型大国关系的基本要求和努力目标。三句话来概括就是不冲突不对抗、相互尊重、合作共赢。2014年11月11日-12日中美两国新型大国关系又跨出一步,把核心内容从中美两国求同存异调整到聚同化疑,到了这一步构建中美新型关系就足够了。
特朗普上台将是中美关系的新起点 四年来,中美两国在构建中美新型大国关系方面取得了明显的进展,但也要看到构建中美关系的过程是曲折复杂的,而且是相当困难的。关键是中美两国应该一条心,共同努力去处理构建中美关系当中出现的问题。中美两国要很好思考,怎样通过交往、对话,增加信任、消除怀疑、管控分歧,来减少两个国家不必要的战略误解和误判,避免修昔底德陷阱,推动中美新关系的构建。
中美构建新型大国关系是顺应时代潮流之举,是前无古人后启来者的伟大视野。特朗普上台可能有利于中美关系。在全球问题合作方面,中国和未来美国新政府当然会继续合作。如果特朗普把它收起来,就会使中美关系产生一个新的矛盾点。
中美关系,有的时候不要太注意它的形式怎么样,能够保持中美关系当然很好,这种保持不是一定保持中美新型大国关系这个称呼,而最重要的是注重中美关系的发展。特朗普上台后在中美关系定位上,某一个时候他一定会提出一个新思路,推出一个新的对话政策。这个政策也许连续性不会那么明显,但也不会出现明显的倒退破裂,去颠覆30多年中美关系发展的积累起来的基础。特朗普的上台不是中美关系的终结,而应该视为中美关系发展的一个新开始。中国要做好预案,怎样对积极的东西推动加以扩大,对消极的东西最小化。 中美两国发展是时代潮流之需要,是两国人民共同利益的反应,不是哪一个领导上台以后就可以轻易改变,有可能有一些决策,但这些决策是可以调和,一定会经过一段时间的磨合,适应和调整。经过这段时间后,中美关系会有一个新的开始,我们仍然可以在这当中看到一定连续性,尽管可能名称有一些改变,但是这个职责不会改变。今年到明年中国十九大期间,这会是中美关系调和时期,中美关系会开始一段相对平稳的发展阶段。
Donald Trump’s shocking victory in the US presidential election has upended all of the certainties that have shaped not only American politics, but also how the world thinks about the United States. Trump must now confront the nitty-gritty of managing America’s international
relationships, and arguably none is more important for the world than that between the US and China. But it is also the relationship that was put in the most doubt by the tenor of Trump’s campaign.
The president-elect could complicate bilateral relations, particularly given that his first year in office will coincide with the Chinese Communist Party’s 19th National Congress next fall. In an ideal world, both Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping should want to keep US-China relations stable. But this will prove difficult, given not only Trump’s Sinophobic rhetoric, but also ongoing disagreements about Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea and North Korea’s nuclear ambitions. Moreover, US-China relations could fall victim to US domestic disputes about global trade, the value of the dollar, and protectionism.
Many Chinese observers accept that Trump will have to grapple with unprecedented divisions at home. He will be challenged not only by the
now shell-shocked Democrats, but also by Republicans who opposed his candidacy, whether openly or covertly. Under these circumstances, he will have to emphasize putting America’s own house in order. If, however, he confuses such an effort with his campaign’s “America first” thrust, even more tension is likely.
Beyond domestic politics, the international order has experienced several shocks in recent years, profoundly changing the global context for US-China relations. Protracted conflicts in Ukraine and Syria hint at a new Cold War between the US and Russia, and the turmoil in those countries, as well as elsewhere, is increasingly disrupting national economies and security regimes.
As the world’s two leading powers, the US and China must figure out how to work together in such unstable conditions. Today, their unsteady relationship features cooperation alongside intensifying competition. Not unsurprisingly, the latter has gained more of the world’s attention than the former.
President Barack Obama has been reinforcing the US military presence in and around China’s neighbors, beefing up security alliances in Asia, and very publicly intervening in the territorial disputes in the South China Sea. The Chinese leadership views these moves, as well as the proposed 12-country Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, as an effort to “contain” China.
At the same time that the US is rebalancing its geopolitical strategy toward Asia, China is asserting its global presence with new security and international-development initiatives, including the “one belt, one road” project, which will link the Chinese economy with much of Eurasia. Likewise, the China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank – which the US views as a Chinese tool for challenging the existing international order – continues to attract such faraway prospective members as Canada, which applied to join in August.
Zero-sum competition between the US and China will make a conflict between the two countries more likely. One potential flashpoint will be North Korea’s nuclear-weapons program. The US is already taking measures to prevent North Korea from attacking it, or South Korea, through enhanced ballistic missile defense systems. The new Trump administration could supplement those efforts with military action to increase the pressure on China. But any effort to bring nuclear-weapons technology to Japan or the Korean Peninsula, something that Trump declared acceptable during the campaign, would create a crisis in Northeast Asia the likes of which the world has not seen since the Korean War.
The US could also clash with China over Taiwan. Relations between Taiwan and mainland China have been fairly peaceful since the 1995-1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis, when then-US President Bill Clinton sent an American aircraft-carrier battle group into the strait. But Taiwan remains a highly sensitive – and emotive – issue for China. If relations with the island sour, so, too, could the US-China relationship.
The world benefits when US-China relations stay on track, so both countries should be more transparent about their national interests. With clearly defined positions, each country could pursue a policy of strategic restraint, avoiding the swaggering displays of force that have sometimes tempted them in the past.
If a conflict between the US and China were to erupt, China’s modernization could be derailed, and the Chinese people would miss out on the “Chinese Dream” that Xi has declared as their goal. For the US, a diplomatic breakdown would indicate that China had been “lost,” as it previously was thought to have been lost when Mao Zedong defeated Chiang Kai-shek’s US-supported Nationalist regime in 1949. More broadly, US-China hostility would be felt worldwide, and would disrupt
international efforts to confront global challenges such as climate change.
To avoid that scenario in the short term, the US and China should consider forming a joint team that includes experienced, high-ranking officials and prominent experts from both sides. This group could chart a course for US-China relations in 2017, identify potential conflicts, and recommend solutions before tensions can reach a boiling point. With a new diplomatic framework for bilateral relations, the US and China could ward off strategic confrontations.
In the long term, the US and China need deeper dialogue and a shared vision for the international order, so that individual countries will not be tempted to form rival blocs among themselves. The US and China should also work together toward “globalization 2.0,” by reforming international rules and institutions to accommodate both established and emerging countries.
While there is much potential for conflict between the US and China in the coming years, there is also space for improved cooperation. Indeed, amid the vast uncertainty created by Trump‟s victory, a new relationship now makes more strategic sense than ever, given changing global circumstances, regional geopolitics, and domestic challenges in both the US and China.
Trump must now choose between cooperation and confrontation as the framework for US policy toward China. His choice should be obvious: a collaborative effort to reform the international order would benefit both sides.
辩论持续时间:90分钟。共分为六个部分,每部分15分钟时限。
大选辩论的意义何在?根据Nielson统计有1/3的选民表示辩论会对他们的投票决定产生重大影响,由此可见,距离大选结果尘埃落定还有一个多月,这三场辩论有着“扭转乾坤”的潜力。这无疑为原本就备受关注的2016美国大选添了油加了醋,增加了大选的戏剧性和可看性。
在这个离大选结果只有一个多月的关头,希拉里和特朗普的两扇大门横在仍旧徘徊不定的选民面前,这场辩论就是他们最后的钥匙,让他们自行选择走进哪扇门。 废话不多说,我们开门见山,直奔主题,看看双方辩手在六个辩论板块中的表现。 Round One: Achieving Prosperity/实现富裕.
这部分讨论的核心是美国的就业现状。
背景:从下图可见美国的失业率自金融危机以来逐渐回落到5%的水平, 但是收入不均现象仍旧险峻,有一半的美国人生活拮据,靠工资度日。
Part1:
主持人:“Why are you a better choice than your opponent to create the kinds of jobs that will put more money in the pockets of American workers?”
“你为什么觉得自己能比竞争对手创造更多的工作机会,以此给美国的工人带去更高的薪水?”
Hillary:“First, we have to build an economy that works for everyone not just for those at the top. That means we need new jobs, good jobs, with rising incomes. I want us to invest in you. I want us to invest in your future. That means jobs in infrastructure, in advanced manufacturing, in innovation, in technology, clean renewable energy and small
businesses."
希拉里:“首先,我们要打造一个为每个人服务的经济体系,而不仅仅是为了顶层人士。这意味这我们需要新的工作机会,好的工作机会,要提高薪水。我希望国家能为个人投资,为个人的未来投资。这意味着我们需要在高端制造业,在技术设施建设,在创新技术领域、再生能源,小型企业中创造更多的就业机会。”
“We also have to make the economy fairer. That starts with raising the minimum wage and guarantee finally equal pays for women‟s work……I also want to see more companies do profit sharing.”
“我们需要让经济更公平。首先从提高最低工资标准开始,并且保证为女性工作者支付平等薪酬……我还希望有更多的公司愿意跟员工分享公司的利益。” 希拉里对于美国的工作现状充满希望,态度乐观,希望能缩小贫富差距,在制造业,基础设施建设领域通过科技创新,创造更多就业机会。
相比之下,特朗普的开堂发言就属于暗黑系。
Trump: “Our jobs are fleeing the country.” “You look at what China is doing to our country in terms of making our product. They are de-valuing their currency and there is nobody in our government to fight them.” “They are using our country as a piggy back to build China.” “We are losing our good jobs. So many of them.”
特朗普:“我们的工作机会都在流失。”“你看看中国对我们做了什么,他们在生产制造我们的产品。他们在让自己的货币贬值,然而我们的政府没有对抗。”“他们把美国当成驮运工来建设中国”。“我们丢失了太多好的工作机会了。”
“Under my plan, I‟ll be reducing taxes, tremendously, from 35% to 15% for company, small and big businesses.” “We have to renegotiate our trade deals and we have to stop these countries from stealing our companies and jobs.”
“在我的计划里,我会降低税收,大幅度降低,把所有大小型企业的税收从35%降到15%”。“我们必须重新商定贸易协议,我们必须阻止其它国家把工作机会和公司从我们国家偷走。”
特朗普“嫌弃”中国、墨西哥等国家“偷走”了美国大量的劳动机会,所以表示自己会通过降低税率来吸引“流失”海外的公司回到母亲怀抱。他认为这样一来国家的就业未来就会美如画。
希拉里回应特朗普的开堂。她以退为进,首先肯定了贸易和降低税收的重要性,然后将话题拉回自己的论点:fair trade deal(公平贸易),反驳说:
“The kind of plan that Donald is put forward would trickle down economy all over again. And that would be the most extreme version.” “That is not how we grow the economy. ”
“唐纳德的计划会让我们的经济再次下滑。他的计划是最激进的做法。”“我们不能以这样的方式发展经济”。
“I think we come out of it with somewhat different perspectives. I understand that. You know Donald was very fortunate in his life and that‟s all to his benefit. He started his business with 14 million dollar borrowed from his father. And he really believes that the more you help wealthy people, the better off will be. I don‟t buy that.”
“我和他的出发点不同。我完全理解。你知道唐纳德十分富裕,他的计划显然是迎合了自己的利益的。他14岁的时候向他的父亲借了1.4亿美金。然后他相信只要为富人服务得更多,我们所有人都会更有钱。我不信这一套。”
“What I believe is that the more we can do for the middle class, the more we can invest in‟ you, your education, your skills, your future, the better we‟ll be off and the better we grow.”
“我只相信,我们为中产阶级做得越多,我们就能够为大家投入更多,投入到个人的教育培养个人的能力,投入到你的未来中去,只有这样我们才能更服务,我们才能发展经济。”
主持人对特朗普施压,追问:How would you force companies to bring jobs back to U.S.?/你要怎么让公司和工作机会回到美国。
特朗普反咬希拉里一口:
“Secretary Clinton? Yes? Is that Ok? I want you to be very happy.” “国务卿?对吧?这样叫OK?我希望你不介意。”
“When she started to talk about this. It was really very recently. She‟s been doing this for thirty years and why hasn‟t she made the agreement better?”
“当她谈到这个问题的死后。其实她已经为此(在国务卿的位置上)做了30年,但是为什么贸易协定没有修订得更好呢?”
针对如何把工作机会吸引回国,特朗普的主要观点是:place a substantial tariff on imported goods/对进口货物加重关税。强制性阻止工作机会流失海外。 Hillary: “We are 5% of the world‟s population. We have to trade with the other 95%,”
希拉里:“我们占全球5%的人口,我们必须跟剩下的95%进行贸易。”
“Eight years ago, we had the worst financial crisis, the great recessions, the worst since1930s. That was in large part because of tax policies that slash taxes on the wealthy and failed to invest in the middle class.”
“八年前,我们经历了最坏的金融危机,最大的衰退,自20世纪30年来以来最严重的。这最主要就是因为施加在富人身上的巨额税务,而不是为中产阶级进行投入。”
“Donald was one of the people who rooted for the housing crisis. He said, back in 2006, „I hope it does claps. Cuz I can go in and buy some and make some money‟”
“唐纳德是笃定次贷危机的一员。他当时说: „我希望房贷垮掉,这样我就能进去赚点钱‟。 ”
Trump: “That‟s called business by the way.”
特朗普:“这叫做生意。”
Hillary:“9 million people lost their jobs. 5 million people lost their homes.” 希拉里:“900万人失去了工作。500万人失去了自己的家。”
“Here is what we can do. We can deploy a half billion more solar panels. We can have enough clean energy to power every home. We can build a new modern electrical grid. That‟s a lot of jobs. That‟s a lot of new economic activity.”
“我们可以这么做。我们可以建更多的太阳能电池板。我们可以给每个家庭带去清洁能源。我们可以建立一个新的现代化的电话。这能带来很多的就业机会。这
都是大把的新的经济活动啊。”
Trump: “She talked about solar panels. We invested in a solar company. That was a disaster. We lost plenty of money on that one. Now look, I am a great believer in all forms of energy. But we are putting a lot of people out of work. Our energy policies are disasters. Our country is losing so much in terms of energy, in terms of paying off our debt.”
“We have to do a much better job at keeping our jobs. And we have to do a much better job at giving companies incentives to building new companies to expand.”
“她说到了太阳能电池。我们投资过一家太阳能公司。这简直是灾难。我们在这桩生意上赔了很多钱。其实我相信一切形式的新能源。但是我们确确实实在让人们失业。我们的新能源政策简直是灾难。我们国家在新能源方面表现不佳,从贷款就可以看出来。”
这部分辩论到最后又说回了特朗普之前迟迟不放出自己的税收单这件事情。 Hillary: "I think you've just seen another example of bait and switch here," Mrs. Clinton says, then launches into the possible reasons why her opponent won't release his taxes.
“我认为你又用了诱导转向法将大家的注意力分散到别处去了,”希拉里说,接着又抛出了几个为什么特朗普不愿意拿出报税单的可能的原因。
Hillary: "I have no reason to believe that he's ever going to release his tax returns because there's something he's hiding,' she said. "And we'll guess, we'll keep guessing at what he's hiding."
希拉里:“我有十足的理由相信他肯定不会拿出自己的报税单因为他肯定隐藏了不可告人的事情。来让我们尽情想象吧,想象他到底隐瞒了什么。”
她表示特朗普的财富全是虚报的,他可没有自己宣扬的那么富有,至少没有他自己说的那么爱做慈善,要么是他自己的商业事务混乱不堪,要么就是他没有向国家缴税。
Trump:“I will release my tax returns against my lawyers wishes when she releases her 33,000 emails that have been deleted. As soon as she releases them, I will release my tax returns.”
特朗普:“只要她把33000封被删掉的邮件发出来,我就愿意不管律师反对把我的税单发出来。只要她公开,我就公开。”
Part 2 Race Relation
第二部分种族关系
Hillary: Race remains a significant challenge in our country and we need to restore trust between community and police. Our police should be retrained to use fore only when necessary. Everybody should acts by the
law and respect the law.
希拉里:长久以来种族问题一直是我们国家的一个大问题。我们需要重铸社区居民和警察之间的关系。同时我们的执法人员也需要重新接受培训,只有在万不得已的时候才可以使用暴力。我们每个人都要依法行事尊重法律。
Trump: Our society needs law and order. The situation of
African-American is that they are living in the hell. The community is dangerous. Thousands of shootings happened in Chicago. We should bring back law and order. Law and order. Illegal immigrants are bad people and they are dangerous, we should take guns away them to protect our inner cities.
特朗普:我们的社会需要法律与秩序。非裔美国人的现状就是他们简直生活在地狱里。他们生活的社区太危险了。芝加哥发生了数不清的枪击案。我们应该让法律和秩序重回我们的社区。法律和秩序。非法移民都是坏人,他们很危险,为了保护我们所居住的城市应该禁他们的枪。
Hillary: Such a negative picture of black community. If you are
African-American, Spanish, Latino,you are more likely to be arrested. You cannot just say, you need a plan. You need a positive way to work with it.
希拉里:你把美国黑人的生活描绘的可真黑暗啊。毋庸置疑,如果你是少数种,不管是非裔美国人,西班牙人还是拉丁人,你都比美国白人更容易被逮捕,但你不能只是说说啊,你得拿出个计划来。
Trump:Seems like you‟ve prepared so much for this debate, huh? 特朗普:某人好像为这次辩论准备得过分了啊
Hillary:Prepare for the debate? I just prepare to be the president. 希拉里:准备辩论?我只是准备当总统而已。
Part 3 Birther Claim
第三部分奥巴马的出生证明事件
Trump:Hillary‟s campaign manager fell to find Obama‟s birth evidence, but I did. I was the one to press him (Obama) to show the birth certificate. 特朗普:还不是因为你们的竞选团队没找到证据(才来攻击我),但是我找到了!是我让他不得不出示出生证明的。
Hillary:Just listen to what you heard! He was really started his political activity based on this race‟s lie that our first black president was not
American. But, he started his career back in 1973, being sued by a justice department for racial discrimination because he would not rent
apartments to African-American and he was sued twice. We have a long record of his engaging in racist behavior. Birther lie was the most hurtful one. Do you know how much President Obama way annoyed and disturbed? Just like Michelle Obama mentioned in her speech on
democracy “wheh they go low, we go high.”, and President Obama went
high despite of Mr. Trump‟s action.
希拉里:你们敢信自己刚刚听到了什么吗?!特朗普是以质疑我们国家历史上第一任黑人总统是不是美国公民来开始自己的政治生涯的。但是,这也不是第一次了,实际上,从1973年开始他就有前科了,他曾被起诉种族歧视因为他不肯将自己的公寓租给非裔美国人,还被告了两次。关于他种族歧视的例子真的是数不胜数。奥巴马总统的出生证明事件是最令人震惊的。你们知道奥巴马总统被他质疑之后有多困扰吗?但是就像米歇尔奥巴马在她的演讲中提到的一样“当别人没品的时候,我们就要高尚起来。”,奥巴马总统对待此事就要比特朗普的小手段高尚的多。
Part 4:Cyber Attack
第四部分:网络攻击
Holt asked: "We want to start with a 21st century war happening every day in this country, our institutions are under cyber attack, and our secrets are being stolen. So my question is who's behind it and how do we fight it?"
Holt问:“我们想从一个正在发生在我们身边的21世界的战争说起,我们的机构正在遭受网络攻击,有人来窃取我们的机密。我的问题是,我们正在遭遇的网络攻击的幕后黑手是谁?我们如何抵御网络攻击?
希拉里的回应:
"There's no doubt now that Russia has used cyber attacks," Clinton said. "[Russian President Vladimir] Putin is playing a tough, long game here."
希拉里说:“俄罗斯经常使用网络攻击,这个毫无疑问的。”“普京正在玩一个艰难漫长的比赛。”
“And we are not going to sit idly by and permit state actors to go after our information, our private sector information or our public sector
information, and we're going to have to make it clear that we don't want to use the kinds of tools that we have. We don't want to engage in a different kind of warfare.”
“我们绝对不会闲坐在那里,然后允许以国家利益为理由的行动者获取我们的信息。不管是我们的公开信息还是非公开信息,我们必须要明白我们并不打算使用这些我们拥有的工具。我们不想卷入一场这样的冲突。
“But we will defend the citizens of this country, and the Russians need to understand that. I think they've been treating it as almost a probing, how far would we go? How much would we do? And that's why I was so, I was so shocked when Donald publicly invited Putin to hack into Americans. That is, that is just unacceptable. It's one of the reasons why 50 national security officials who served in Republican information, administration have said that Donald is unfit to be the Commander-in-Chief. It's
comments like that that really worry people who understand the threats that we face.”
“我们将会保护这个国家的公民,俄罗斯必须要明白这一点。我认为俄罗斯把网络攻击视为一种挑衅和试探,来试探我们有多在乎,我们愿意付出多少代价?这
就是为什么当川普邀请普京来网络入侵美国的时候,我有多么的震惊。这是绝对的不能接受的。这就是为什么50个国家安全官员明确生成川普不够资格成为总司令。这是那些明白我们正在面临什么样威胁的人给我们提出来的建议。”
川普的回应:
"I don't know if we know it was Russia who broke into the DNC," he said. "She's saying Russia, Russia, Russia. Maybe it was. It could also be
China, it could be someone sitting on their bed that weighs 400 pounds." 我不知道是不是俄罗斯网络攻击了DNC,希拉里一直在说俄罗斯,俄罗斯,俄罗斯。也许曾经是俄罗斯,也许是中国,也可能是那些躺在床上体重400磅的人。
“So we have to get very, very tough on cyber and cyber warfare," he continued. "It is a, it is a huge problem. I have a son. He's 10 years old. He has computers. He is so good with these computers, it's unbelievable. The security aspect of cyber is very, very tough. And maybe it's hardly doable. But I will say, we are not doing the job we should be doing. We have so many things that we have to do better, certainly cyber is one of them."
“在关于网络战争上,我们面临着一个非常艰难的处境。这是一个极其艰难的问题,我有一个儿子。他今年10岁。他有一个电脑。他如此的擅长电脑,这简直不可思议。网络安全是一个非常非常艰难的问题。但是我会说,我们现在做的不够好,我们本可以做的更好。我们有如此多的事情可以做的更好,网络安全显然是其中之一。”
Part 5:Homegrown Terror
第五部分:本土恐怖袭击
Mr. Trump gets a question in his wheelhouse: How to stop homegrown terrorism perpetuated by Muslim American citizens.
特朗普被问了一个问题:如何制止由美国穆斯林公民持续发起的本土恐怖主义。 He didn‟t press his proposals to forbid Muslim immigration or install “extreme vetting” from nations where terror acts have taken place.
特朗普没有强调他禁止穆斯林移民或者进行在恐怖袭击附近进行极端严格审查的策略。
Instead Mr. Trump pivoted to his call to press NATO allies to pay back dues and assist the U.S. to “knock the hell out of ISIS.”
相反,特朗普把重点转向了呼吁北太平洋公约组织成员一起协助美国,把ISIS送入地狱。
He never did address the question of how to stop homegrown terrorism in the United States.
特朗普并没有直接回答如何阻止美国本土恐怖主义的滋生和蔓延。
Part 6:Stamina
第六部分:希拉里的身体状态
Trump: She doesn‟t have the president look. She doesn‟t have the stamina and I don't believe she has.
特朗普:她长得就没有总统相。她也没有足够的精力去胜任美国总统,我也不信她有。
Hillary:As soon as he travels to 112 countries and negotiates a peace deal, a cease fire, or even spends a 11 hours‟ testifying in front of a congressional committee, he can talk to me about stamina.
希拉里:等他访问了112个国家,谈个和平协定再签个停火协议,哪怕在国会委员会面前听个11个小时的听证会,让他再来跟我说精力。
Clinton Hits Trump Over Past Comments About Women
随后,希拉里攻击川普对女人的评价
Mrs. Clinton notes that Mr. Trump has called women "pigs, slobs, and dogs."
希拉里说川普曾经把女人比喻成“猪,笨蛋和狗”
She adds that he has previously said women "don't deserve equal pay unless they do as good a job as men" and recounts an anecdote that Mr. Trump called a beauty contestant "Miss Piggy" and "Miss
Housekeeping," adding that she is a Latina.
希拉里补充说,“川普之前曾经认为女人不配得到平等的工资待遇,除非她们能和男人一样完成好工作”,并且陈述了一个关于川普的轶事:川普曾经把一个拉丁裔的争辩者称之为“猪小姐”,“家庭主妇小姐”。
"She has become a U.S. citizen. And you can bet she's going to vote this November," Mrs. Clinton said, over Mr. Trump asking, "Where did you find this."
在川普质问“你从哪里找到了这个”之后,希拉里回应说,“她(川普侮辱过的女士)已经是一名美国公民,我敢打赌她今年11月份会去投票。”
希拉里有经验,但是都是极坏极坏的经验
当希拉里质疑川普没有经验时,川普说:“ Clinton Has Experience, But 'It's Bad, Bad, Bad”(希拉里有经验,但都是极坏极坏的经验)
“She should have solved any of the problems she is seeking to fix during her decades in public life.”Trumo said
特朗普说:克林顿有经验,不过这种经验是“坏坏”的经验。特朗普试图推垮希拉里拉选时的承诺。他说:她应该在10多年的政治生涯中解决掉她想解决的事情,然而事实并不是这样。
Mr. Holt then pressed Mr. Trump on his past statement that Mrs. Clinton “doesn‟t have the presidential look.” Mr. Trump argued he meant that she “doesn‟t have the stamina,” though he didn‟t rebut the charge from Mr. Holt.
Holt先生就特朗普所言:“希拉里没有总统相”展开追问。特朗普争辩说:“她就是没有那个精力”,他并没有反驳Holt的指控。
He then summed up his case against Mrs. Clinton: “Hillary has
experience, but it‟s bad experience,” Mr. Trump said. “It‟s bad, bad, bad.”
最后,特朗普结尾说道:“希拉里的确有经验,但是都是不好的经验,极坏极坏的经验。"
2016年美国大选,在中国舆论场上,一些人的表达造成的印象,一是认为他们太乱,二是认为他们是金钱游戏,三是以“疯子与骗子的对决”将人家贬得一文不值,四是完全采信批评者的意见,五是过多美化共和党人特朗普而过分贬低民主党人希拉里,六是过于情绪化地参与评说等。这样的状态,会对美国大选作出完全错误的判断,届时,又有可能让外界认为我泱泱中华无人矣。
人许多时候,往往就是缺什么在乎什么。你的强烈好奇心,你的强烈的感情投射,你的非理性表达,往往取决于你对某事的不了解,或没有足够的、理应有的经验与实践所致。对美国大选,既然大家那么感兴趣,那还是要把视角瞄准好。没有正确的视角,你一错再错,那到时候成为别人的笑料,那可别又受不了。
第一,美国大选就是一直吵,一直相互贬低、羞辱与暗算的。在美国历史上,只有首任总统华盛顿当选得相对顺利。按当时的国际环境,他老人家原本可以当国王,但他坚辞,国人就高度一致,非选他当首任总统不可。其后的历任总统,就没有那种好福气。在美国,如果一个总统没有被人骂得狗血喷头,都不好意思写个人回忆录。杰斐逊当年,就是被攻讦与羞辱得体无完肤,想死的心都有了。后人综合评判,在所有的美国总统中,杰斐逊受到的诽谤言论几乎是最多和最严厉的。但回顾美国史,杰斐逊却是美国历史上最伟大的总统之一,美国的总统山上四大总统,杰斐逊就为其中之一。这种现象,老航在另文中说过,不妨再强调下。
第二,美国是批判精神很强烈的一个国家,不仅有参选人之间互相抹黑,也有民间与社会精英的种种看不惯,但批评不是绝望,而是为了新的希望。社会有批评之声,也有肯定之语。主动找问题,发现问题,才有可能解决问题。同时,在批评声浪中,另一面就是肯定与支持。希拉里与特朗普各自有自己的拥趸,且数量庞大。
第三,美国大选虽然花费不少,但相比起美国经济,只不过是九牛一毛。主要经费来源,出自社会捐助。希拉里的筹款能力很强,特朗普是亿万富豪,但不等于有钱就能当选。1992年,克林顿击败老布什当选总统。那时,他的筹款能力就远逊于老布什,但他赢了大选。2008年,奥巴马异军突起,先击败希拉里,再击败共和党的麦凯恩,并非是钱起到决定性作用。简单地将美国大选归于金钱操纵,不符合实情。1990年代,以IT为代表的新贵成为美国新型富豪,他们多倾向于民根本主党人,恰恰是他们根本无需屈从于政客。他们比较认同的是民主党人在科技发展、环保、新能源等方面,与他们追求的理念比较接近。
第四,维基解密阿桑奇的搅局,虽然产生一定心理冲击,但究竟有限。主要原因是那些机密文档的公开是有选择性的,并且证实与证伪也有相当大的难度。一个对希拉里充满仇恨的澳大利亚人试图干扰美国大选,多数美国人实际持反感或漠视的态度。
第五,美国主流媒体选择一边倒地支持希拉里,并不代表他们失去了公正。当然,绝对的公正是不存在的。根本点是特朗普胡言乱语太多,他本人又有侮辱少数族裔、侮辱妇女、偷逃税(合理避税)等道德瑕疵。希拉里或许给人的感觉不够好,但媒体主流看法是她比特朗普靠谱得多。特朗普不仅在媒体人那儿获得差评,而且文化艺术界,包括非常有影响力的影视明星,也几乎比较一致地看不惯他。在共和党内,也有许多重量级的人,包括前重要政客、现议员等,竟然也公开表示特朗普不适合当总统,不会将自己的一票投给他。这种状况,实质是美国精英阶层的价值判断问题。在任何一个国家,一个人明显有缺陷,那就不可能获得社会的整体肯定,尤其是精英阶层,他们会积极表态,充当维护社会基本价值观的责任担当。
第六,大选期间的一些策略、计谋,只要是合法的,便无可厚非。不管他们的表现看起来是不是有些不道德,有些卑鄙、无耻,但那是有边界的。如果有谁犯法,踩过界了,即便当选,最终也会惨遭滑铁卢。尼克松当年的“水门事件”就是一个至今也令参选人胆寒的历史铜镜。
第七,美式大选不是真直选,而是间接选举。先是各州对总统候选人决出结果,然后再由各州的“选举人”最终投票决选谁当选总统。48个州是赢者通吃,获得全部选举人票,缅因和内布拉斯加两个州是按普选票得票比例分配选举人票。不是简单多数就能当选,是给选举设了一个关口。这种制度虽不时遭到一些人的嘲笑与非议,但美国立国以来一直就这样子的,并且运行良好,证明有其充分的合理性。
第八,美国选民优先看重的永远是经济与民生,其次才是外交等方面。希拉里的夫君克林顿那8年任期内,美国经济优异的表现,一直让人追念,那是希拉里的重要正资产。
第九,美国人并不相信他们需要一个十全十美的政治领袖,而只是希望有一些比较能干的人。总统候选人不仅在选举期间要受到饱和式批评与攻击,而且当选后更得小心翼翼,千万不可犯诨,捅出大篓子来。这种人曾经说过的话,做过的事,曾经许下的承诺,反对党和民众都会拿出追问、质询。竞选期间要自卖自夸,当选之后则要一步一个脚印,努力做好每一件事。不然,社会就万箭齐发,万炮齐轰。事情闹得比较大的时候,弹劾的危险就跟着来了。克林顿当年就因在拉链门上面向公众撒了一次谎,就差点遭遇弹劾。若那时节克林顿真被弹劾下台,如今也就不可能再有希拉里竞选总统的任何可能性了。
第十,在美国有选举权的华人已不是中国人,虽然他们是中国的亲属。美国华人有他们的政治判断,那是他们的选择。有相当多的华人倾向于特朗普,原因有点复杂。那些华人比较勤劳,在工作中比较听话,愿意付出,那就比黑人、拉美人等拥有了明显的个人发展优势,可也因此与那些人发生过太多的冲突。他们在美国生根开花,社会地位逐渐提高,忘记自己也是少数族裔身份,不想美国接纳太多的非法移民,是基于群体利益的考量。所以,特朗普提出严厉打击非法移民的主张,深得他们的欢心。这样,他们就纷纷成为特朗普铁粉,便不能接受对特朗普的任何批评。美国华人过去远离政治,闷声发大财,发觉不是事儿。而今关心起政治来了,却还是功利心重了些,影响到他们的大局观和综合判断能力。但美国华人只有400万左右,他们对美国大选的影响力比较轻微。当然,他们相互间也有不同的意见与立场。有些人平常在网路上说得慷慨激昂,但真到了投票日,也未必去投票。
这10个角度,只是老航的一点浅见。我不是要说服谁,只不过提醒大家思考深一些,全面一些。反正2016美国大选再过两周就有结果,到时候再看吧。
奥巴马就2016美国大选结果发表讲话
(PS:奥巴马演讲从2分钟处开始哦)
President Obama: Good afternoon, everybody. Yesterday, before votes were tallied, I shot a video that some of you may have seen in which I said to the American people: Regardless of which side you were on in the election, regardless of whether your candidate won or lost, the sun would come up in the morning.
奥巴马总统:大家下午好!昨天,我在选票结果统计出来之前拍了个视频,可能有些人已经看过了。在视频中,我对美国人民说:无论你在大选中支持哪一边,无论你支持的候选人是否能获胜,明天一早太阳都会照常升起。
And that is one bit of prognosticating that actually came true. The sun is up. And I know everybody had a long night. I did, as well. I had a chance to talk to President-elect Trump last night – about 3:30 in the morning, I think it was – to congratulate him on winning the election. And I had a chance to invite him to come to the White House tomorrow to talk about making sure that there is a successful transition between our presidencies.
而这也是预言中成真的那一小部分,太阳确实升起来了。我知道你们每个人都度过了漫长的一夜,我也一样。我昨晚,大概是凌晨三点半的时候,和当选总统的特朗普通话,祝贺他赢得大选,并邀请他明天来白宫做客,谈谈如何确保我们任期之间的顺利过渡。
Now, it is no secret that the President-elect and I have some pretty significant differences. But remember: eight years ago, President Bush and I had some pretty significant differences. But President Bush’s team could not have been more professional or more gracious in making sure we had a smooth transition so that we could hit the ground running. And one thing you realize quickly in this job is that the presidency, and the vice presidency, is bigger than any of us.
大家都知道,我和这个未来的总统之间有着许多意见分歧。但是,请记住,八年前我和布什总统之间也有着不少分歧。尽管如此,布什总统团队在任期过渡和积
极开展工作上都表现出了很强的专业素养。而在这项工作中你会很快意识到,总统和副总统的职位本身比我们任何一个人都更加重大。
So I have instructed my team to follow the example that President Bush’s team set eight years ago, and work as hard as we can to make sure that this is a successful transition for the President-elect – because we are now all rooting for his success in uniting and leading the country. The peaceful transition of power is one of the hallmarks of our democracy. And over the next few months, we are going to show that to the world. 因此,我教导我的团队要遵循布什总统八年前树立的先例,竭尽全力确保总统任期的顺利过渡,因为现在我们都支持他成功地领导和团结这个国家。平和的权力交接是我们民主的标志之一。而在接下来的几个月中,我们会让全世界见证这一点。
I also had a chance last night to speak with Secretary Clinton, and I just had a chance to hear her remarks. I could not be prouder of her. She has lived an extraordinary life of public service. She was a great First Lady. She was an outstanding Senator for the state of New York. And she could not have been a better Secretary of State. I’m proud of her. A lot of Americans look up to her. Her candidacy and nomination was historic and sends a message to our daughters all across the country that they can achieve at the highest levels of politics. And I am absolutely confident that she and President Clinton will continue to do great work for people here in the United States and all around the world.
昨晚我也与国务卿希拉里通了电话,并在刚才聆听了她的演讲。我为她感到无比骄傲。她为公共事业贡献了非凡的一生,她曾是伟大的第一夫人、杰出的纽约州参议员,作为国务卿她表现得再好不过。我为她感到自豪。许多美国人尊敬她,她的候选人资格和提名具有历史意义,向全国各地我们的女儿们传递了一个信息:她们可以在政治巅峰有所成就。我坚信她和克林顿总统将会继续为美国乃至全世界人民进行卓越的工作。
Now, everybody is sad when their side loses an election. But the day after, we have to remember that we’re actually all on one team. This is an intramural scrimmage. We’re not Democrats first. We’re not Republicans first. We are Americans first. We’re patriots first. We all want what’s best for this country. That’s what I heard in Mr. Trump’s remarks last night. That’s what I heard when I spoke to him directly. And I was heartened by that. That’s what the country needs – a sense of unity; a sense of inclusion; a respect for our institutions, our way of life, rule of law; and a respect for each other. I hope that he maintains that spirit throughout this transition, and I certainly hope that’s how his presidency has a chance to begin.
每个人都会因为自己支持的阵营落选而伤心,但在以后的日子里我们必须记住,我们实际上都是一个团队。这是一场内部斗争。我们并非首先是民主党人或共和
党人,我们首先是美国人,首先是爱国者。我们都想要为自己的国家谋得最佳。这是我从特朗普先生昨晚的演讲中听到的,也是当我直接同他通话时听到的。我为此深受鼓舞,这正是这个国家所需要的:团结意识,包容意识,对我们体制、生活方式和法治的尊重,以及相互尊重。我希望他能够在这一过渡期内保持这种精神,我当然也希望他能够由此展开他的总统任期。
I also told my team today to keep their heads up, because the remarkable work that they have done day in, day out – often without a lot of fanfare, often without a lot of attention – work in agencies, work in obscure areas of policy that make government run better and make it more responsive, and make it more efficient, and make it more service-friendly so that it’s actually helping more people – that remarkable work has left the next President with a stronger, better country than the one that existed eight years ago.
我也跟我的团队讲,把头抬起来。他们在各种机构、无名的政策领域日复一日地卓越工作,虽然通常不被大肆宣传,也不为大众所关注,但正因如此,才使得政府可以更好地运转、更加积极回应大众、更有效率,且更加服务友好,并真正帮助更多的人。这些非凡的工作为下一任总统留下了一个比八年前更为强大和优秀的国家。因此,不论赢得这场选举还是落败,这始终是我们的使命。自第一天起,这便是我们的使命。我团队中的每一个人都应当为他们所做的每一件事而感到格外自豪,我在全国各地遇到的倚赖这一进步而每天努力工作的所有美国人亦应如此:学校里的老师,急诊室里的医生,倾其所有起步并确保好好对待其雇员的小型企业,每一个州的爸爸妈妈及家人和教堂会众所做的所有重要的工作,是使这一联盟日趋完美的工作。
So, win or lose in this election, that was always our mission. That was our mission from day one. And everyone on my team should be extraordinarily proud of everything that they have done, and so should all the Americans that I’ve had a chance to meet all across this country who do the hard work of building on that progress every single day. Teachers in schools, doctors in the ER clinic, small businesses putting their all into starting something up, making sure they’re treating their employees well. All the important work that’s done by moms and dads and families and congregations in every state. The work of perfecting this union.
这是一个漫长而艰辛的选举,许多美国人在今天意气风发,还有许多美国人则没那么激动。但这就是竞选的本质,这就是民主政治的本质。这是艰难的,有时还是富有争议且喧闹的,竞选并不永远是激动人心的。但对那些第一次参与政治且可能对结果感到失望的年轻人,我只想你们知道,你们一定要保持信心。不要怀疑,永远不要认为你们不能有所作为。正如国务卿克林顿(希拉里)今天上午所说,为正确的事物而战是值得的。
So this was a long and hard-fought campaign. A lot of our fellow Americans are exultant today. A lot of Americans are less so. But that’s the nature
of campaigns. That’s the nature of democracy. It is hard, and sometimes contentious and noisy, and it’s not always inspiring.
所以,这是一场漫长而艰辛的竞选。今天,很多美国同胞欢欣鼓舞,也有很多人没那么激动。但这就是竞选的本质,这就是民主的本质。这是一个艰难的过程,有时还充满了喧嚣和争议,而且并不总是鼓舞人心。
But to the young people who got into politics for the first time, and may be disappointed by the results, I just want you to know: you have to stay encouraged. Don’t get cynical. Don’t ever think you can’t make a difference. As Secretary Clinton said this morning, “fighting for what is right is worth it.”
但是对于那些初次涉足政治的年轻人来说,这个结果可能令你失望,我只想让你知道:你依然要保持积极向上的心态,不要愤世嫉俗。永远不要认为你不能有所作为。就像国务卿希拉里今天上午所说的那样,“为正确的事物战斗是值得的”。
Sometimes you lose an argument. Sometimes you lose an election. You know, the path that this country has taken has never been a straight line, with zig and zag, and sometimes we move in ways that some people think is forward and others think is moving back. And that’s okay. I’ve lost elections before. Joe hasn’t. (Laughter.) But, you know. So I’ve been sort of – 有时你输掉的是一场辩论,有时你则输掉一场选举。要知道,这个国家所选择的道路从来不是笔直的,我们在曲折中前进,有时一些人认为我们在进步而另一些则认为我们在倒退。但这也没什么,我曾经也在选举中失利过。乔(指美国的副总统拜登)没输过(笑声)。不过,你知道。所以,我可以确定——
Vice President Joe Biden: Remember, you beat me badly. (Laughter.) 副总统乔·拜登:记住,你那时候可是完败了我。(笑声)
President Obama: That’s the way politics works sometimes. We try really hard to persuade people that we’re right. And then people vote. And then if we lose, we learn from our mistakes, we do some reflection, we lick our wounds, we brush ourselves off, we get back in the arena. We go at it. We try even harder the next time.
奥巴马总统:政治有时候就是这个套路。我们想方设法让人民觉得我们是对的。然后大家投票。如果我们输了就从失败中汲取教训,反思回顾,舔舐伤口,抛掉过去,重回竞技场。我们定下目标,下次会更努力。
The point, though, is, is that we all go forward, with a presumption of good faith in our fellow citizens – because that presumption of good faith is essential to a vibrant and functioning democracy. That’s how this country has moved forward for 240 years. It’s how we’ve pushed
boundaries and promoted freedom around the world. That’s how we’ve expanded the rights of our founding to reach all of our citizens. It’s how we have come this far.
重点是我们都需要怀揣着对我们的公民好的信念—因为对好的信念的憧憬是激发和推动民主的精髓。也是这个国家在240多年的历史中前行的原因。也是我们在世界范围内不断冲破阻碍宣扬自由的方式。这是我们在建国之初赋予每一个公民的权利基础上不断进行权利扩充的方式。这是我们一路走来的原因。
And that’s why I’m confident that this incredible journey that we’re on as Americans will go on. And I am looking forward to doing everything that I can to make sure that the next President is successful in that. I have said before, I think of this job as being a relay runner – you take the baton, you run your best race, and hopefully, by the time you hand it off, you’re a little further ahead, you’ve made a little progress. And I can say that we’ve done that, and I want to make sure that handoff is well-executed, because ultimately we’re all on the same team. 这也是我对美国会继续这段不可思议的旅途充满信心的原因。我很期待尽己所能在未来协助新的总统在这段旅途中取得成功。我以前说过,我在这份工作中是一位接力赛选手—你接过接力棒,在赛跑中竭尽全力,怀着希望在转交接力棒的时候可以处于一个比较靠前的位置,你自己在这场比赛中取得了一些进步。现在我可以说我们做到了,并且我希望转交过程可以顺利执行,因为最终我们参与的是同一场比赛。
All right? Thank you very much, everybody. (Applause.)
好了,非常感谢你们每一个人。(掌声)
The Republican presidential race has been all about the economy. With sluggish economicgrowth and millions of Americans still out of work, the candidates for the nomination have beentrying to portray themselves as the best person to fix it.
共和党总统候选人之争一向都是围绕经济话题展开。在经济增长乏力、数百万美国人依然面临失业的情况下,候选人努力将自身描绘成解决这一问题的最佳人选。
But social issues — which have energised Republican politics for decades — returneddramatically to the fore during the past week, with controversies involving contraception andabortion, religious freedom and same-sex marriage filling the airwaves.
但最近,数十年来为共和党的政治活动源源不断地注入活力的社会问题,重新被推到了风口浪尖,有关节育与堕胎、宗教自由以及同性婚姻的辩论,充斥着媒体的各个角落。
"For a substantial portion of the Republican base, this is the central issue," says Bill Galston,a respected political analyst at the Brookings Institution. "They are concerned about whatthey see as the cultural decay of America."
“对偏向共和党的很大一部分选民来说,这才是中心问题。”备受尊敬的布鲁金斯学会
(Brookings Institution)政治问题分析师比尔•盖尔斯顿(Bill Galston)指出,“他们认为美国的文化正在衰败,并为此感到担心。”
The spotlight on social issues will probably benefit Rick Santorum, who won a clean sweep inthe nomination contests in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri on Tuesday night.
对社会问题的关注,或许将令里克•桑托勒姆(Rick Santorum)从中受益。近日,在科罗拉多州、明尼苏达州和密苏里州的总统候选人提名之争中,桑托勒姆大获全胜。
A social conservative with hardline views — he opposes abortion in all cases, including rapeand incest — he has focused his campaign efforts on Christian conservatives. He has beenunapologetic about putting social issues front and centre, even in a time of economic strife.
作为一名立场强硬的社会保守派——他反对一切情况下的堕胎行为,包括因强奸和乱伦而导致的堕胎——桑托勒姆将竞选重点放到了信仰基督教的保守派选民身上。他没有辩解为何要将社会问题置于重中之重,即便是在经济领域矛盾重重的情况下。
But Mr Santorum, a Catholic with seven children, played down the role the contraception issueplayed in his victories.
"I don't think it was a big issue at all," he told Fox News yesterdaymorning. "Our numbers were doing much better before this controversy came up." 不过,有着7个孩子的天主教徒桑托勒姆却认为,节育问题在帮助他获胜的过程中所起的作用其实没那么大。“我完全不认为这是一个重要的问题。”他向福克斯新闻(Fox News)表示,“这一争议出现前,我们的支持率要高得多。”
Still, analysts say the issues played to Mr Santorum's strengths with his party's conservativebase.
尽管如此,分析人士表示,鉴于共和党所拥有的保守派选民基础,这些问题还是强化了桑托勒姆的优势。
Social issues have garnered new attention since the Obama administration ordered last weekthat employers — including Catholic hospitals and universities — must provide healthinsurance for contraception, including the morning-after pill.
奥巴马政府近日要求,各用人单位——包括天主教医院和大学——必须为节育提供医疗保险(包括紧急避孕药),此后,社会问题再次受到选民们的关注。
This comes after a decision, later reversed, by the Susan G. Komen breast cancerfoundation to pull funding from Planned Parenthood, a service that provides contraception andabortions, after being put under pressure.
此前,由于受到压力,苏珊•G•科门(Susan G. Komen)乳腺癌基金会决定将资金从提供节育和堕胎服务的计划生育联盟(Planned Parenthood)中撤出。不过后来,该基金会取消了这一计划。
It also coincides with a federal court ruling declaring California's voter-supported ban on gaymarriage was unconstitutional.
与此同时,一家联邦法院作出裁决:同性恋婚姻禁令虽得到加州选民的支持,但却违反了宪法。
"When you couple social issues with broaderconcerns like freedom of conscience, it's biggerthan a pure social issue," said Mike Franc of theHeritage Foundation, a conservative think-tank.
"This is not just about contraception, it's about whogets to make core decisions."
“当你把社会问题与更广层面的担忧,比如良知的自由联系起来时,它就不只是一个纯粹的社会问题了。”保守派智库传统基金会(Heritage Foundation)的迈克•弗兰克(Mike Franc)表示,“这不仅是节育的问题,而是重大决定将由谁来作出的问题。”
Social conservatives have played a decisive role in presidential politics in recent decades.George W. Bush courted them assiduously in his successful campaigns in 2000 and 2004, whileJohn McCain appeared less comfortable addressing their concerns in 2008.
最近几十年间,社会保守派在大选政治中扮演着关键性的角色。乔治•W•布什
(George W. Bush)在2000年和2004年成功竞选的过程中,对他们不敢有丝毫怠慢,而约翰•麦凯恩(John McCain) 2008年竞选时,面对社会保守派提出的问题,应对起来则显得不那么从容。
The Tea Party's focus on the size of the US government and the budget put social issues inthe background, but recent debate has rekindled passions. 茶党对美国政府及预算规模的关注,曾使社会问题淡出了人们的视线,而最近的争论又重新点燃了人们的兴趣。
Catholic leaders have responded angrily to the Obama administration's directive on providingcontraception, saying it would force them to subsidise and offer a practice that goes againsttheir beliefs.
针对奥巴马政府要求用人单位提供节育保险的指令,天主教领袖表达了强烈不满,他们表示,这将迫使他们进行补贴,并做出有违其宗教信仰的举动。
The issue is even more high-stakes given that Catholics are the biggest swing religious bloc ofthe electorate and routinely vote for the eventual president. 考虑到在全体选民中,天主教徒的人数在摇摆不定的信教人群中是最多的,而且他们投票支持的候选人常常会成功当选,鉴于这两点,上述问题就显得更加非同小可。
Seeing Mr Santorum gaining in the polls, Mitt Romney, the frontrunner for the nomination whohas been accused of "flip-flopping" on social issues for the sake of political expediency, hasalso sought — unsuccessfully — to win over social conservatives this week.
看到桑托勒姆的民调支持率上升后,米特•罗姆尼(Mitt Romney)最近也试图赢得社会保守派的支持——但结果却事与愿违。有人指责,在共和党初选中领跑的罗姆尼出于政治便利的考虑,在社会问题上的态度总是“飘忽不定”。
Mr Romney has joined the chorus of criticism against the administration, calling its newregulations an attack on "religious liberty", apparently in an attempt to appeal both to thereligious right and centrist Catholic voters.
罗姆尼也对政府提出了批评,称其新规是对“宗教自由”的践踏,这似乎是为了博取宗教右翼选民和中间派天主教选民的好感。
The administration's new directive was a real blow "to our friends in the Catholic faith," MrRomney, who is a Mormon, said in Loveland, Colorado, this week. 身为摩门教徒的罗姆尼近日在科罗拉多州洛弗兰德表示,政府的新规大大伤害了“我们那些信仰天主教的朋友”。
“This kind of assault on religion will end I'm president of the United States,” Mr Romney said.
他表示,“如果我是美国总统,宗教受到的这种伤害将会结束。”