2008年3_4月国内安全生产事故统计分析

第8卷第3期安全与环境学报Vol. 8 No. 3

2008年6月Journal of Safety and Environment Jun, 2008

O perational Research , 2000, 120(1) :190-2041

[80] TASKAY A -TEMIZEL T, CASEY M C. A comparative s tudy of autore -gress ive neural net work hybrids [J ]. Neural Networks, 2005, 18(5/6) :781-7891

[81] ELLIOT T G, TIMMER MANN A. Opti mal forecast combinations under

general loss func tions and forecas t error distri butions [J]. Journal o f Econometrics, 2004, 122(1) :47-791

[82] T AYLOR J W, B UNN D W. Inves ti ga ting i mprovements in the accuracy

of predic tion i ntervals for combi nations of forecasts:a simulation study [J]. Inte rnational Journal o f Fo recasting , 1999, 15(3):325-3391

摘 要:统计了2008年3) 4月国内发生的各种安全生产事故311起, 包括矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、火灾、毒物泄露和中毒及其他事故。统计表明, 在这些事故中, 其他事故最多, 占39123%, 其次是交通事故(35137%) 、矿业事故(13118%) 、爆炸事故(6175%) 、毒物泄露和中毒(2189%) 、火灾(2157%) 。311起事故共死亡1054人, 伤1286人, 死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故49181%、其他事故20121%、矿业事故17146%、爆炸事故6183%、泄露中毒3104%、火灾2166%; 受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故74111%、爆炸事故8179%、矿业事故7108%、其他事故5121%、泄露中毒3103%、火灾1179%。关键词:安全工程; 事故数据; 统计分析中图分类号:X928101

文献标识码:A

文章编号:1009-6094(2008) 03-0169-04

2008年3) 4月国内安全生产

事故统计分析*

王亚军, 李生才

(北京理工大学爆炸科学与技术国家重点实验室, 北京100081)

Review on the acciden-t forecasting research

methods

ZHENG Xiao -pi ng , LIU Meng -ting, LI Wei

(Institute of Safety Management, Beijing University of Chemical Technology, Beiji ng 100029, China)

Abstract:The present review is conducted in hoping to assist the re -searchers in the field to unders tand the general principles and methods of acciden -t forecasting and prevention in a systematic and comprehen -sive manner as well as provide hints to identify the research status and

trends. As is known, acciden -t forecasti ng is increasingly becoming

the hot topic in the whole society, which is likely to be of great sig -nificance for system safety and accident prevention in advance. Keep -ing these goals in mind, this paper i ntends to generalize the main commonly recognized methods into six major categories, including scenario analysis, regression method, time series method, Markov chain method, grey model as well as the nonlinear model. At the same time, i t has also made a comparative analysis and generalization on them, as well as a study on the model selection and accuracy measure. Thus, i t can be concluded that:1) Most forecasting theo -ries and methods are designated for certain particular application trades or fields. As the model complex i ty, accuracy and data require -men t may differ from each other, a generally adopted method should be sui table and accurate to the specific modes and characteristic fea -tures of a certai n accident; 2) In case a randomly chosen city and contingency were eli minated in order to gain more useful guide of modeling, s tress should be put on analyzing the outlier in the given sample space and the heterogeneity of factors; 3) The sys tem safety proves to be non -linear, dynamic and stochastic in nature, and, ac -cordingly , it is better for realis tic application to combine the quantita -ti ve and qualitative analysi s, the methods both linear and nonlinear in nature , and static and dynamic methods in to an integrated entity; 4) The idea of prevention should be made the focus of the acciden -t fore -casting research based on the state forecasting tasks i n the future.

Key words:acciden t forecasting science; accident forecasting meth -ods; sum mary

CLC number:G303 Document code:A Article ID:1009-6094(2008) 03-0162-08

0 引 言

自2001年5安全与环境学报6创刊, 作者就对国内安全生产事故进行了跟踪式的数据统计和分析[1-一工作, 统计时间为2008年3) 4月。

33]

。本文继续这

1 事故数据

2008年3) 4月国内发生的矿业事故、交通事故、爆炸事故、泄露中毒、火灾及其他事故详细情况见文献[34]。表1列

出了2008年3) 4月国内发生的特大事故(死亡10人以上) 。 从表1可以看出, 2008年3) 4月国内发生的特大事故(死亡10人以上) 有17起, 死亡230人, 受伤526人, 分别占事故总数量的5147%, 21182%, 40190%。其中交通事故9起, 矿业事故5起, 爆炸事故、中毒和其他事故各有1起。交通事故所占比例最大。湖南、山东、新疆和云南各有2起事故。

与2007年同期相比, 事故起数减少了4起, 死亡人数减少了118人, 受伤人数增加了403人。对于占事故总量的百分比, 2008年3) 4月事故起数略有增加, 死亡人数有所减少, 受伤人数有较大幅度上升。

2 事故统计分析

统计表明, 在311起事故中, 其他事故最多, 占39123%, 其次是交通事故(35137%) 、矿业事故(13118%) 、爆炸事故(6175%) 、毒物泄露和中毒(2189%) 、火灾(2157%) 。311起事故共死亡1054人, 伤1286人, 死亡人数的百分比分别为交通事故49181%、其他事故20121%、矿业事故17146%、爆炸事故6183%、泄露中毒3104%、火灾2166%; 受伤人数的百分比分别为交通事故74111%、爆炸事故8179%、矿业事故7108%、其他事故5121%、泄露中毒3103%、火灾1179%。见表2及图*收稿日期:2008-05-12

作者简介:王亚军, 讲师, 博士, 从事安全与环境工程研究,

yajunwang@bi t. edu. cn 。

Vol. 8 No. 3 安全与环境学报 1~3。可以看出, 其他事故、交通事故和矿业事故, 发生起数、死亡人数和受伤人数仍然占有很大比重。

2008年3) 4月事故发生较多的前5个省市分别为浙江(26次) 、广东(22次) 、云南(19次) 、四川(19次) 和贵州(17次) 。死亡人数较多的前5个省市分别为山东(101人) 、云南(99人) 、山西(67人) 、四川(61人) 和湖南(61人) 。受伤人数较多的前5个省市分别为山东(459人) 、云南(104人) 、广东

第8卷第3期

(72人) 、贵州(68人) 和四川(64人) 。31个省市的事故情况见表3。

从表3可以看出, 浙江、贵州和北京万人事故率较高, 新疆、云南和青海万人死亡率较高, 山东、云南和山西万人受伤率较高。总体上看, 云南事故状况较严重。

2008年3) 4月事故按月份分布情况见表4。

表1 2008年3) 4月国内特大事故(死亡10人以上)

Table 1 Some major industrial accidents happened in Ch ina during March to April in 2008(more than ten people dead)

时间03-0503-0503-0703-1303-1403-2303-2603-2603-2703-2703-2804-1004-1104-1104-1204-1504-28总计

吉林辽源市东辽县金安煤矿

河北沧州市黄骅市津汕高速吕桥出口至205国道连接线与官周线交叉口处新疆伊犁州霍城县境内西气东输工程果子沟隧道出口云南昭通地区威信县三桃乡菜坝村水洞坪煤矿

云南临沧地区风庆县三岔河镇雅雪线(雅琅河至雪山) K1湖南郴州市永兴县香梅乡张家洲煤矿

新疆吐鲁番市公安局销毁恰特喀勒乡红旗花炮厂广西柳州地区鹿寨县国道323线鹿寨龙江路段四川凉山州木里县大沙湾水电站1号引水隧洞

湖南省张家界市桑植县张家两河口乡潭口村省道S305线青海海西州乌兰县海西州乌兰县茶卡镇国道109线浙江椒江正东

江苏南通海域(长江口东)

辽宁葫芦岛市南票区沙锅屯村第三煤矿山东长江口北角正东

山东省胶济铁路周村站至王村站间17起

地点

黑龙江鹤岗市兴安区泰源煤矿井下五片下十处压风机峒室

电缆起火冒顶相撞雪崩

煤与瓦斯突出翻沟瓦斯突出

烟花爆竹及原材料爆炸碰撞中毒相撞相撞撞船撞船瓦斯爆炸撞船

列车脱轨相撞

[***********][1**********]

13*10*2*11*41552623*2412*435

事故

死亡/人

受伤/人13*

注:*表示不明。

表2 2008年3) 4月国内安全生产事故类型分布Table 2 I ndu strial accidents happened in China du ring March

to April in 2008according to type

事故类型矿业交通爆炸

泄露中毒火灾其他总计

事故/起[**************]

死亡/人[***********]4

受伤/人

[**************]

286

图2 事故死亡人数饼图Fig. 2 Pie chart of casualty

number

图1 事故起数饼图

Fig. 1 Pie chart of accident

number

图3 事故受伤人数饼图Fig. 3 Pie chart of wounded number

2008年6月 王亚军, 等:2008年3) 4月国内安全生产事故统计分析 Jun, 2008

表3 2008年3) 4月国内安全生产事故省市分布

T able 3 Industrial accidents happened in China during March to April in 2008according to provinces and cities

省市安徽北京福建甘肃广东广西贵州海南河北河南黑龙江湖北湖南吉林江苏江西辽宁内蒙古宁夏青海山东山西陕西上海四川天津西藏新疆云南浙江重庆全国

事故/起

[***********][***********][**************]1

死亡/人

[***********][***********][***********]42291054

受伤/人 人口/万人

[***********][***********][***********]01286

[***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********]

万人事故率/%

[***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][**************]8

万人死亡率/%

01507

[***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][1**********]

万人受伤率/%

[***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][***********][**************]4

注:人口数据为2005年数据, 来源于5中国人口统计年鉴20066; 万人事故率、万人死亡率和万人受伤率的定义见文献[11]。

表4 2008年3) 4月国内安全生产事故月份分布

Table 4 I ndustrial accidents happened in China during March to April

in 2008according to month

2008年3月

矿业交通爆炸泄露中毒火灾其他总计

[1**********]67

[***********]

[**************]7

[1**********]4

2008年4月

[**************]

[**************]9

事故/起死亡/人受伤/人事故/起死亡/人受伤/人

2) 2008年3) 4月, 其他事故、交通事故、矿业事故, 发生起数、死亡人数和受伤人数占很大比重。

3) 省市事故统计表明, 2008年3) 4月, 云南省事故状况严重。

References(参考文献) :

[1] HUANG Ping(黄平) , WANG Yajun (王亚军) , LIU Qiang(刘强) .

Statistical analysis of maj or acci dents in China in the year 2000[J ]. Journal o f Saf e ty and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2001, 1(1) :44-471

[2] WA NG Yajun(王亚军) , WU Qiong(吴琼) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) .

Statistics of indus trial accidents i n China during January to March i n the year 2001[J]. Journal of Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2001, 1(2):60-641

[3] WA NG Yajun(王亚军) , LIU Xia(刘霞) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) .

Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na duri ng April to July in the year 2001[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2001, 1(4) :57-641

[4] WA NG Yaj un(王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) . Statistics of industrial

accidents occurring i n China in the peri od from Augus t to Nove mber of 2001[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2001, 1(6) :55-641

[5] WA NG Yaj un(王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) . Statistics of industrial

accidents in Chi na duri ng the period from December in 2001to February i n 2002[J]. Journal o f S a f e ty and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2002, 2(2) :54-641

[6] WA NG Yaj un(王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) . Statistics of industrial

accidents in Chi na during the period from M arch to J une in 2002[J ]. Journal o f Saf e ty and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2002, 2

3 结 论

通过对2008年3) 4月国内安全事故的统计, 得到如下结论。

1) 2008年3) 4月国内发生的特大事故(死亡10人以上) 与2008年1) 2月[33]持平, 死亡人数增加5人, 受伤人数有大幅增加; 事故起数和死亡人数占事故总数的百分比略有减小, 受伤人数占事故总数的百分比有大幅增加。特大事故中, 交通事故最多。

Vol. 8 No. 3 安全与环境学报

(4) :52-641

[7] HUA NG Ping(黄平) , WANG Yaj un(王亚军) . Statis tics of industrial

acci dents in China during the period from J uly to October i n 2002[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2002, 2(6) :43-561

[8] WANG Yaj un (王亚军) , HUANG Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in China during the period from November in 2002to February in 2003[J ]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2003, 3(2) :78-801

[9] WANG Yaj un (王亚军) , HUANG Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in China during the period from March to J une i n 2003[J]. Journal o f Sa f ety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2003, 3(4) :78-801

[10] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from July to October in 2003[J]. Journal of S a f et y and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2003, 3(6):77-801

[11] HUAN G Ping(黄平) , WANG Yajun(王亚军) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from November in 2003to February i n 2004[J ]. Journal o f Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2004, 4(2) :92-961

[12] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from M arch to June i n 2004[J]. Journal of Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2004, 4(4) :93-961

[13] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from July to October in 2004[J]. Journal of S a f et y and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2004, 4(6):96-991

[14] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from November to Dece mber in 2004[J ]. Journal o f Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2005, 5(1) :124-1281

[15] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from January to February in 2005[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2005, 5(2) :122-1251

[16] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from M arch to April in 2005[J].Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2005, 5(3) :121-1241

[17] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from M ay to J une in 2005[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2005, 5(4) :119-1221

[18] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from July to August i n 2005[J]. Journal of Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2005, 5(5) :125-1281

[19] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from September to October i n 2005[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2005, 5(6) :123-1251

[20] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from November to Dece mber in 2005[J ]. Journal o f Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2006, 6(1) :141-1441

[21] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from January to February in 2006[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2006, 6(2) :138-1411

[22] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from M arch to April in 2006[J].Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2006, 6(3) :141-1441

[23] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from M ay to J une in 2006[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2006, 6(4) :136-1391

[24] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from July to August i n 2006[J]. Journal of Safety and Env ironment (安全与环境学报) , 2006, 6(5) :136-1391

[25] WANG Yajun(王亚军) , HUAN G Ping(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生

才) . Statistics of indus trial accidents in Chi na during the period from September to October i n 2006[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment

第8卷第3期

[26]

[27]

[28]

[29]

[30]

[31]

[32]

[33]

[34]

(安全与环境学报) , 2006, 6(6):138-1411

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from November to December in 2006[J ]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2007, 7(1) :154-1571

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from J anuary to February in 2007[J ]. Journal of S a f e ty and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2007, 7(2):154-1571

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from March to April in 2007[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2007, 7(3):153-1561

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from May to June in 2007[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2007, 7(4):152-1551

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from J uly to August in 2007[J]. Journal o f S a f e ty and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2007, 7(5):142-1451

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from September to October in 2007[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2007, 7(6):127-1301

WANG Yajun (王亚军) , HUANG Pi ng(黄平) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statistics of industrial accidents i n China during the period from November to December in 2007[J ]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2008, 8(1) :173-1761

WANG Yajun(王亚军) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Statis tics of indus -trial acci dents i n China duri ng the peri od from January to February in 2008[J]. Journal o f Safety and Environment (安全与环境学报) , 2008, 8(2) :170-1731

WANG Yajun(王亚军) , LI Shengcai(李生才) . Re port o f industrial accidents in China during the period from March to April in 2008[R/OL]. [2008-05-10]. Http://www.aqyhj xb. com. cn/hydt/.

Statistics of industrial accidents in C hina during the period from March to April in 2008

WANG Ya -jun, LI Sheng -cai

(State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of T echnology, Beijing 100081, China)

Abstract:The present paper reports the statistical data and analysis of industrial accidents in China during the period from March to April in 20081There are 311accidents in total, which can be summarized and classified into si x categories:mining industry, traffic, explosion, leakage and poisoning, fire, and the others. Of all the 311acc-i

dents, the percentages of the si x categories can be illustrated accord -ing to their freq uency order 13118%, 35137%, 6175%, 2189%, 2157%, and 39123%respectively. The total casualty is 1054and the percentages for the six categories are 17146%, 49181%, 6183%, 3104%, 2166%, and 20121%respectively. T he number of the wounded is 1286and the percentages for the si x categories are 7108%, 74111%, 8179%, 3103%, 1179%, and 5121%respec -tively. The analyses of the statistics show that the top five provinces and cities with the highest accident number are:Zhejiang (26acc-i

dents) , Guangdong(22) , Yunnan(19) , Sichuan(19) , and Guizhou (17) . The top five provinces and cities with the largest casualty num -ber are:Shandong(101dead) , Yunnan(99) , Shanxi(67) , Sichuan (41) , and Hunan(61). And the top five provinces and cities with the bi gges t wounded number are:Shandong(459wounded) , Yunnan (104) , Guangdong(72) , Guizhou(68) , and Sichuan(64) . Key words:safety engineering; accident; statistical analysis C LC number:X928101 Document code:A Article ID:1009-6094(2008) 03-0169-04