商务英语短文阅读1

Lifting Economic Clouds to Boost Asian Exports If, as Bob Dylan once famously croaked, ―The answer is blowin’ in the wind,‖ then Asia’s macroeconomic weather vanes are indicating fair to medium tailwinds, albeit with a risk of low pressure.

The outlook certainly looks better now than it did a year ago. Fourth quarter 2013 data from major markets beat analyst expectations, and the JPMorgan-Markit global Purchasing Managers Index reached 53.3 in December, the highest reading since April 2011.

Asia-Europe containerized trade

The eurozone is forecast to move out of recession this year, with PMI data — which has consistently led GDP growth — suggesting further expansion, boosted by rising consumption in the U.K. and the improved performance of periphery countries. Most analysts expect this to lead to accelerating GDP growth in 2015 and 2016.

Against a backdrop of burgeoning consumer confidence and low natural gas prices, U.S. GDP also is predicted to grow more quickly in 2014 than it did last year.

Indeed, global economic output is set to expand 3.5 percent in 2014, up from an estimated 2.9 percent last year, according to global research and consulting firm PwC.

Improved stability in key markets appears certain to benefit major exporting economies in Asia, as well as ocean carriers, rail operators and airlines that ship their goods.

Rajiv Biswas, Asia-Pacific chief economist for IHS, said accelerating global growth would be a major boost for Asia this year, especially for countries such as South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand that have a high share of exports relative to total GDP.

―The economic outlook for China is also helped by the improving prospects for the U.S. and EU, which remain key export markets for China,‖ Biswas said. ―This upturn in world growth will also drive a rebound in world trade, with growth in world containerized trade forecast to rebound from a sluggish 2.1 percent growth rate in 2013 to 4.7 percent growth in 2014.‖

Although PwC forecasts China’s GDP growth will slow to 7.5 percent this year from 7.7 percent in 2013, other analysts are more bullish. IHS, for example, expects growth of 8.1 percent in 2014 as exports improve and consumer demand remains robust.

In Japan, the ―Abenomics‖ policies installed by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will propel the country to 1.6 percent GDP growth this year, up from a projected 1.4 percent in 2013, according to PwC, while South Korea’s GDP is expected to expand 2.8 percent in 2014, up from 2.7 percent last year.

In terms of export growth, New York-based corporate bank HSBC forecasts major gains this year by China (8 percent growth, compared with 6 percent in 2013), Hong Kong (8 percent in 2014 vs. 6 percent last year), Japan (5.3 percent vs. 1.8 percent), South Korea (7.5 percent vs. 4.5 percent), Singapore (5.6 percent vs. 2.9 percent), Thailand (7.8 percent vs. 4.4 percent), Indonesia (5.1 percent vs. 4.5 percent) and Malaysia (5.6 percent vs. a 0.6 percent drop last year).

Asia-wide, HSBC expects exports to grow an impressive 7 percent in 2014 and accelerate to 8.5 percent in 2015, a huge jump from the estimated

4.7 percent growth achieved in 2013 and just 3.1 percent in 2012.

China’s solid economic expansion and rising demand for imports also will boost intra-Asia trade in 2014. ―China will continue to provide a fast-growing export market for the rest of the Asia-Pacific,‖ Biswas said. ―Association of Southeast Asian Nations exports to China have been growing at an average annual rate of over 20 percent per year over the last decade, and strong ASEAN-China bilateral trade will continue to be an important export growth market for both ASEAN countries and for China.‖

Exports across ASEAN will play a greater role as a growth engine in 2014 than they have in previous years, he said, with domestic demand likely to moderate. Myanmar and Vietnam also will benefit from recent economic reforms.

Trans-Pacific containerized trade

Ample reasons remain for caution on Asia’s prospects for 2014, however. The eurozone still needs further reform of its financial sector, while the U.S. and Japan are struggling with high government debt and related fiscal risks that could hurt GDP growth and trade.

Uncertainty also clouds the outlook in India, Indonesia and Thailand, all of which face national elections this year. China, meanwhile, is at odds with a number of its neighbors over territorial sovereignty, especially at sea.

Many Asian countries also need to adjust their economies. ―A new round of structural reforms is a must for many emerging market economies, including investment in infrastructure, to reignite potential growth,‖ the International Monetary Fund wrote in its latest World Economic Outlook paper. ―China needs to rebalance growth away from investment toward consumption to make way for more balanced and sustainable domestic and global growth.‖

According to Biswas, the main risk to an upturn in U.S. export demand comes from the impact of Federal Reserve tapering during 2014 if it results in an unexpected slowdown in the pace of U.S. private sector recovery.

―In the EU, a key risk to the fragile economic recovery is that it could still falter due to the impact of ongoing fiscal austerity and weak consumer demand,‖ he added.

Intra-Asian trade, which has become an increasingly important driver for export-led Asian economies, also will be at risk if Chinese growth slows because of the impact of efforts to curb domestic credit expansion, particularly in the shadow banking sector, Biswas said. ―This could significantly dampen intra-Asian trade growth, given China’s role as a key export market for most other Asian economies,‖ he said. ―The territorial dispute between China and Japan also remains a key risk to bilateral Sino-Japanese trade flows if tensions escalate further.‖

In 2014, you may need more than one weatherman to know which way the winds blow.

HSBC Economist: Weak Yen Could Lift Japan’s Exports

Japanese export volumes could finally surge激增 this year after a disappointing 2013 as manufacturers start to reflect反映 the decline下降 of the yen in more competitive pricing in overseas markets, according to one leading economist.declined

在2013年制造业开始在在海外的出口竞争中获得更少的资本的时候便被预测， 日本出口数量在今年最后可能激增

Japanese exports increased 15.3 percent year-on-year in December by value, with major gains seen in the auto汽车, steel钢铁 and organic chemicals 有机化合物 sectors. Yet export shipments发货 rose just 2.6 percent last month, and over the full year volumes contracted契约的 1.5 percent, despite the yen’s falling 17 percent against the dollar.尽管跟美元比起来日元下降了17%。

日本十二月份价值的出口逐年的以15.3%递增，最主要是在汽车，钢铁以及有机化合物方面。到目前为止出口数量比上个月上升了2.6%，尽管跟美元比起来日元的下降了17%，可是整年的契约数量还是上升了1.5%

―By the standards of advanced economies — and economic theory, no less — such an exchange rate swing should have delivered at least a nice bounce 弹跳 in shipments,‖ HSBC’s汇丰银行 Frederic Neumann said. ―Plus,加上 the global economy did better than the year before, so weak demand cannot be blamed.‖

在发达经济还有经济理论的标准下，例如转换利率的不稳定在发货量上引起了至少一个很好的跳幅。汇丰银行的xxx 说：“加上全球经济比上一年要好，所以减少需求量不会受到过大的负面影响。”

The divergence分歧from economic theory was, he said, the result of manufacturers having little faith that the yen would remain weak. Thus, prices charged in换算成 dollars for goods sold overseas were not reduced in case cuts could not be recovered if the yen rebounded反弹. ―All this meant nice profits for Japanese firms — higher yen earnings for their shipments — but no gain in export market shares.‖

他说，经济理论的分歧是，对于没有信仰的制造业的结果可能会使日元继续下跌。万一如果日元反弹, 那么出口海外的货物所得回来的日元换算成美元的的资金不能够减少来弥补切口。“这些都意味着日本公司好的利润-为他们的出口量赚取更多的日元-但是在股份市场的出口上没有什么收获 Neumann believes, however, that if corporate Japan becomes convinced that the yen will stay weak or continue to wobble不稳定, export prices may tumble下降（衰落）. ―Then shipments发货量 would soar上升 and Japan’s competitors, like Korea, may finally feel a squeeze 拥挤, ‖ he added.

Xxx=认为，但是，如果和一旦和日本真的合作那么日元就会继续的下降或者继续的不稳定，出口价格可能会继续的下降。这样的话发货量会上升，日本的竞争者，就像是朝鲜，将会最后变的紧张起来。他强调。

Report: Asia-Pacific Demand

Growth Critical关键的 for Logistics Firms 物流企业

Growth in demand from the Asia-Pacific will be critical to the fortunes of the logistics industry in 2014, according to the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2014.

The Top 45 countries in the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index.

Full-size image

The annual index, produced by Agility and Transport Intelligence, takes in three main components:// index country rankings, major trade lanes and a survey of trade and logistics professionals.

With global economic growth and trade set to improve, this year’s survey found logistics insiders were ―overwhelmingly upbeat‖ about prospects for emerging markets. Almost three quarters of logistics and trade respondents said prospects for emerging markets were either ―very good‖ or ―good,‖ while 72 percent expect modest growth in the global economy and trade volumes this year.

―Most logistics professional expect an improvement this year on 2013 trade volumes,‖ said Essa Al-Saleh, CEO of Agility Global Integrated Logistics.

Logistics executives were mostly upbeat on the Asia-Pacific. Almost 58 percent believe it will be the fastest growing emerging market this year, compared with a quarter choosing Latin America. Four of the Top 10 emerging countries were located in Asia: China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia.

The greatest supply chain risks in Asia-Pacific identified by respondents were natural disasters and economic shocks. By contrast, executives named corruption and poor infrastructure as the main risks in Latin America, government instability and terrorism as top concerns in the Middle East and North Africa and poor infrastructure and government instability as the main threat to logistics operations in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Some 63 percent of executives said they ―agree‖ or ―agree strongly‖ that manufacturing production will move away from China to other emerging markets countries. Vietnam, India, Mexico and Indonesia were seen as the top alternative destinations.

Countries with the largest up and down changes year-over-year in the Agility Emerging Markets Logistics Index 2014.

John Manners-Bell, CEO of Ti, told the JOC that it was still too early to say whether China’s new government would do more to improve the competitiveness of China’s logistics network and its attractiveness as a location for manufacturing. However, with China expected to see

economic growth of more than 7 percent in 2014, Al-Saleh said China ―would still create many opportunities for many logistics professionals‖ due to the sheer scope of the market, even though relative competitiveness on labor and land costs has seen the cost of doing business increase. ―China remains a strong economy and still dominates our Emerging Markets Index,‖ he said, adding that it retained its commanding position as the leading destination and origin in both ocean and air cargo.

India, second only to China in the index rankings over 2011 to 2013, slipped to fourth position in the 2014 rankings behind Brazil and Saudi Arabia.

―India’s drop is surprising in light of Brazil’s deepening economic woes and the fact that India’s population is 44 times that of Saudi Arabia,‖ the report said. ―Chronic problems – aging infrastructure, high inflation, and obstacles to job creation and business investment – were compounded by the volatility in the Indian rupee.‖

Among the Top 10 largest air lanes identified in the report, the biggest volume gains were on Colombia-U.S., Chile-U.S. and

Bangladesh-European Union. On ocean lanes, the biggest winners in 2013 were Brazil-U.S., where freight volumes rose 62 percent, and South Africa-U.S. cargo, which increased 44 percent year-over-year in 2013.

Yet, although logistics executives are upbeat about demand for logistics in 2014 as global growth improves, some economists have argued that the days of trade increasing at twice the pace of global GDP may now have passed, as protectionism has risen since the recession struck in 2008 and 2009.

Manners-Bell said the index had not examined the link between GDP and trade growth, but agreed that the days of trade growth outstripping GDP growth may have passed.

―In the downturn, demand for exports from China fell in the developed world, whereas many countries in the emerging world started to focus on domestic growth and invested accordingly,‖ he said. ―As the world comes out of recession, we may see this trend reverse again.‖