房地产投资风险评估分析 英文版

Analysis on Risk Evaluation of Real Estate Investment*

MENG Jun1 SUN Chao2

Abstract: Real estate is gradually becoming the basic industry of national economy and new economic growth point. However, over-development and over-hot of real estate investment have brought great risk loss for investors. Therefore, how to research the investment risk of real estate systematically is an important task to ensure real estate’s developing healthily. This article first refers to the real estate investment decision-making, the land obtain, the project construction, the management and operation four stage existence risks, and carries on the recognition on these; Next, proposes the evaluation index system of real estate investment risk, and uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the investment plan risk; Finally, based on the risk recognition and the appraisal, proposes the enterprise control countermeasure to enhance the investment risk management and strengthen the ability of guarding and melting risk for enterprises.

Key words: real estate investment, risk evaluation, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation.

1. INTRODUCTION biggest indetermination and flexibility. Real estate investment is once to carry on, it is very difficult to withdraw from the item Real estate is a kind of sparse resource, important production factor construction; otherwise it will pay a high price. The risk of and the necessity of people’s life. With economic growth, social investment decision-making stage mainly comes from policy, progress and the increase in population, the need of real estate economy, social district milieu and development opportunity etc. increases day by day. In the market economy, the real estate is the most important, valuable and concrete property form, because it can have benefit, retain value, increase in value, and becomes the 2.2 The Risk on Land Obtaining Stage good investment object for people to purchase property

(GreenRiehardK 1997). Real estate industry is an important

Once decide to invest and then turn into the stage of land obtaining.

industry in the national economy, which contains the development,

management and evaluation, surrogate, information service, On this stage, the cost of advertising for ground and dismantling to

move is large and require attention, so the risk is stronger. management, repair and so on. Presently, in our country real estate

Advertising for ground and dismantling to move may involve many market develops still not perfectly. The real estate investment also

exits some not mature places. The investors need to improve laws and social problems, so advertising for ground and investment theories and techniques. The real estate investment dismantling to move are very difficult to progress smoothly. In the

end investors have to pay more money and time than expected and needs a amount of fund, usually asks for help of financial tool, and

bear larger opportunity cost. On the stage of land obtaining, the exists risk at any time. Therefore, how to carry on valid investment

decision, understand risk and guard against risk is a problem that risk may also come from natural attribute, social attribute and the needs investor's concern (Liu 2003). indetermination that comes from the department of programming.

2. THE RISK IDENTIFICATION OF THE REAL 2.3 The Risk on Item Constructing Stage ESTATE INVESTMENT

The period of real estate investment is a dynamic state process and full of indetermination. The negligence of whichever tache all may cause the failure of investment, so the investor has to carry on identification to the indetermination factor of each tache and take in to guard against (Myers 1984).

Time, quality and cost are three big management cores in construction stage of the real estate item, are also three strong risk factors. If the management is not appropriate, it will make the enterprise face the risk of procrastinating work period, quality risk and cost risk. Work period once being prolonged, on the one hand the real estate market condition may have bigger variety, and the enterprise may miss the best opportune moment for rent or sale, on the other hand it will increase interest of funds and management

2.1 The Investment Risk on Decision-Making Stage fee. The quality is the life of enterprise. The consumer values the physical quality of house and emphasizes the effect of house more. In the whole process of the development of real estate, the stage of The contractor’s technique level of construction falling behind, investment decision-making is the most important and owns the cheating on labor and material and the hidden trouble of the

building structure are the main factors which result in item quality

risk. Enterprise once losing market or being accused to court

1 Professor, School of Science, National Soybean Engineering

because of the quality problem, it is very difficult to support again, Technological Research Center, Northeast Agricultural University,

Harbin, China; 150001; PH (86) 451-55191507; Email: just finally can fade out from real estate group. The development

cost risk of the real estate item comes from each stage of [email protected]

2 Ph.D. Candidate, Agricultural Economics and Management, development. In the programming and design, the project is old,

the depth is not enough, and the parameter chosen is not reasonable Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China; 150001; PH (86)

451-87994317; Email: [email protected] and not carrying on optimization design, all will cause increment of *The research project has funds supported by Ministry of Education, production cost. During the period of constructing, nation adjusts Humanities and Social Sciences project (08JA790016), Education industry policy and adopt new request or higher technique standard Office of Heilongjiang Province, Key project (1153Lz10), Post-also will make real estate development’s cost increase (Shen 2005).

doctoral start fund research project in Heilongjiang Province.

322

2.4 The Risk on the Stage of Management

The management stage of real estate is last but very important process of the whole real estate investment. After item development is completed, development enterprise should sell or rent merchandise as soon as possible so as to call back funds and obtain profits. Contrary, merchandise buildings which have already been set up can’t be rent or sold due to various reasons, that would cause the house unsalable, the funds being put off and influence the management and development of company. The marketing machinating is the core of management, and its success or failure directly influences the cost whether it can be taken back and the profits whether it can be carried out. In the real estate marketing machinating, price orientation, the outlet of sell, marketing method...etc. are all very important aspects. Among them, list price is the key, because consumers are most sensitive to prices. Higher prices will cause a sale difficulty and be hard to carry out profits. But lower price will not only reduce the profits of real estate, but also may cause the consumers doubt the quality of merchandise building, thus influence real estate company at the image and the prestige within the market. The management level is directly related to corporate reputation and the development of follow-up. The bad after-sales service and unsuited to get the charge of property management are both important reasons which cause the poor prestige and hard development of the enterprise (Lu 2005).

3.2 Calculate the Weights of Various Factors and Their Sub-factors

3.2.1 The Establishment of the Evaluation Criterion Group

The evaluation criterion table is the relatively important degree table which factor U i and U j compares, as is shown in Table 1.

3.2.2 Gather the Results of the Evaluation Done by the Evaluation Group

In this case, the results of evaluation index of the first layer done by the five experts are shown in the Table 2. Because the weight determined by each expert is not necessarily the same, so we need to use the average method to determine the weights of the index of the first layer (Ye 2005, Peter and Cmsbie 2000).

Calculate the average value of each evaluation index: according to the formula

L

∑a

i =1j ≠i

n

ij

P i =∑

R =1

, in this formula, n—the number of the

L

3. THE RISK EVALUATION OF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT

This paper limits to a real estate enterprise and use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to carry on risk evaluation of investment. The investment risk is divided into four parts: the risk on decision-making stage; the risk on land obtaining stage; the risk on item constructing stage; the risk on the stage of management.

evaluation index; aij—the ratio of evaluation index i and evaluation index j; R— Expert serial number. L— The number of experts.

Table 1: Table of the Evaluation Criterion

The evaluation

Factors Importance

criterion

Two factors have the same degree of U

1 U importance.

U

U i is important than U j little. 3 U

i

j

i

j

5 7 9 2,4,6,8

U i U i U i U i

U j U j U j U j

U i is important than U j obviously.U i is important than U j strongly. U i is important than U j extremely.

3.1 Establishment of Evaluation Factor Set

In accordance with this analysis of investment risk, we first establish the four basic evaluation factors: the risk on decision-making stage(d), the risk on land obtaining stage(l), the risk on item constructing stage(i), the risk on the stage of management(m), respectively record as d,l,i,m. Here, we only analyze the second layer, and establish the following multi-layer fuzzy evaluation index system, as illustrated in Figure 1.

A 1

B 1

B 2

B 3

B 4

The median of the above adjacent value judgment

B 1--risk on decision-making stage; B2--risk on land obtaining stage; B 3--risk on item constructing stage; B4--risk on the stage of management; C1--policy risk; C2--economy risk; C3--social milieu risk; C4--development opportunity risk; C5--investment location risk; C6--financing risk; C7--design risk; C8--technique risk; C9--safety risk; C10--cost control risk; C11--quality risk; C12--competition risk; C13--service risk; C14--selling price risk; C15--marketing risk (Zhang 2005).

Figure 1: Risk evaluation index system of the real estate

C 1 C 2 C 3 C 4 C 5 C 6 C 7 C 8 C 9 C 10C 11 C 12C 13C 14C 15

Table 2: Table of the Index of First Layer Given by Experts Expert

Evaluation d(U ) l(U ) i(U ) m(U )

∑ serial 1234

index

number

d(U 1) 1 5 3 1/2 9.5l(U 2) 1/5 1 1/4 1/3 1.78

1

i(U 3) 1/3 4 1 1/6 5.5m(U 4) 2 3 6 1 12d(U 1) 1 4 1/4 1/2 5.75l(U 2) 1/4 1 1/3 1/3 1.92

2

i(U 3) 2 3 1 1/2 6.5

m(U 4) 2 3 2 1 8 d(U 1) 1 3 1 1/3 5.33l(U 2) 1/3 1 1/5 1/6 1.7

3

i(U 3) 1 5 1 1/3 7.33m(U 4) 3 6 3 1 13d(U 1) 1 6 2 1 10l(U 2) 1/6 1 1/5 1/7 1.51

4

i(U 3) 1/2 5 1 1/2 7 m(U 4) 1 7 2 1 11d(U 1) 1 5 2 1/3 8.33l(U 2) 1/5 1 1/3 1/6 1.7

5

i(U 3) 1/2 3 1 1/6 4.67m(U ) 4 6 6 1 17

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Table 3: Remark of Probability of Investment Risk

Evaluation content Remark

Very big Big

The probability of investment risks Medium

Small

Very small

P 1= (9.5+5.75+5.33+10+8.33)/5=7.78; Similarly ，P 2=1.72; P3=6.2; P4=12.2.

Calculate the weight value of each evaluation index: bring the

P A i =i

, we can gain the above the values into the formula

∑P i

i =1

Table 4: Remark of Result of investment risk Evaluation content Remark

Bad Medium Slight

Very slight

factor evaluation matrixR i , For example:

weight of the index of the first layer：B1=0.3; B2=0.1; B3=0.2; B4=0.4.

Similarly, we can gain the weight of the index of the second layer.

C 1=0.3;C2=0.15;C3=0.2;C4=0.25;C5=0.1;C6=0.4;C7=0.6;C8=0.5;C 9=0.35;C10=0.15;C11=0.3;C12=0.2;C13=0.2;C14=0.15;C15=0.15.

⎡r 11r 12r 13r 14r 15⎤⎢r r 22r 23r 24r 25⎥ 211⎢⎥R i =

⎢" " " " " ⎥⎢⎥⎣r n 1r n 2r n 3r n 4r n 5⎦

In this formula, r nj － the membership of imparting remark V 1j according to the evaluation index U nj , V 1j —1 means the first evaluation content, j means the remark of five grades, j=1, 2, 3, 4, 5; R i 1－superscript 1 means the first evaluation content, i means the sequence number of the single factor (i=1, 2, 3, 4); superscript 1 of the matrix means the first evaluation content.

According to experts’ evaluation results, we have established the fuzzy evaluation table of investment risk of the real estate enterprise.

According to the Table 5, we can gain the comprehensive evaluation Bi of each single factor.

Evaluation content 1(The probability of investment risk):

⎛0.3⎞⎛0.60.20.200⎞⎜0.15⎟⎜0.40.20.20.20⎟1

B 1=A 1D R 1=⎜0.2⎟D ⎜0.60.4000⎟

⎜0.25⎟⎜0.60.20.200⎟ ⎜0.1⎟⎜0.60.4000⎟⎝⎠⎝⎠

=(0.30.20.20.150)

1

=(0.40.40.200)B 2=A 2D R 21

Similarly, B 3=A 3D R 3=(0.50.40.20.150.2)

1

=(0.30.20.20.20)B 4=A 4D R 4

1

3.3 Confirm the Evaluation Content

In the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of investment risk of the real estate enterprise, we follow the general principles of safety investment, from the following two aspects to evaluate the risk of the investment risk: 1. the possibility of the investment risks; 2. the consequences of the investment risk. Regarding the two evaluation contents, the Table 3 and 4 has separately given their remark sets.

According to the Table 3 and 4 we can establish the remark set of the comprehensive evaluation = {V1, V2}, in this formula, V1 = {V11, V12… V15} , V 2 = {V21, V22 ...V25}.

3.4 Calculate the Single Factor Evaluation Matrix and System Evaluation Matrix According to the Relation between U and V

Establish single-factor evaluation matrix is to identify the membership of the factors. In the evaluation factor set U, the synthesis of the membership of all indexes, is namely the single-

⎛B 1⎞⎛0.3⎜B ⎟⎜B =⎜2⎟=⎜0.4

B 0.5⎜B 3⎟⎜0.3⎝4⎠⎝

0.20.40.40.2

0.20.150⎞0.200⎟ 0.20.150.2⎟0.20.20⎟⎠

System evaluation matrix:

Basic evaluation

factor A i U i Weight

U 1

0.3

U 2 U 3

0.1 0.2

U 4

0.4

Table 5: Table of the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation

Evaluation content

Evaluation

V 1 V 2

sub-factor R i The probability of investment risk The result created by investment risk

A ij U ij Very big Big Medium Small Very smallVery badBad Medium Slight Very slight

U 11 0.30 0.6 0.20.2 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 U 12 0.15 0.4 0.20.2 0.20 0 0.2 0.8 0 0

R U 13 0.20 10.6 0.40 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0

U 14 0.25 0.6 0.20.2 0 0 0 0 0 0.6 0.4

0.6 0.40 0 0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 U 15 0.10

0.8 0.20 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0 U 21 0.40 R 2

0.4 0.40.2 0 0 0 0 0.4 0.6 0 U 22 0.60

0.6 0.40 0 0 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.4 U 31 0.50 R 3 U 32 0.35 0.4 0.20.2 0 0.2 0 0 0 0.4 0.6

0.4 0 0.4 0.20 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.4 U 33 0.15

U 41 0.30 0.8 0 0.2 0 0 0.2 0 0.4 0.4 0

0.4 0.20.2 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 U 42 0.20 R 4 U 43 0.20 0.4 0.40 0.20 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2

0 0.20.4 0.40 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 U 44 0.15

0.4 0.20 0.40 0.2 0.4 0.4 0 0 U 45 0.15

324

Probability Score

Table 7: The Risk Grade of Technological Disaster Risk grade 5 4 3 2 1

Very Very

Risk degree Dangerous Generally safe Safe

dangerous safe

The score of Below

100-81 80-61 60-41 40-21

the risk 20

⎛B 1⎞

⎜B ⎟

C =A D B =(A 1A 2A 3A 4)D ⎜2⎟

B ⎜B 3⎟⎝4⎠⎛0.30.2⎜

=(0.30.10.20.4)D ⎜0.40.4

0.50.4⎜0.30.2⎝

=(0.30.20.20.20.2)

Table 6: Score of Each Remark Very big Big Medium Small 100 80 60 40

4. CONCLUSIONS

Very small

20

Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a method that it makes use of the basic theory of fuzzy math -membership to make the fuzzy quantitative information quantitative, it is reasonable to choose factor domain values, and continues to use traditional mathematical methods for multi-factor quantitative evaluation, thus come to the scientific conclusions of the evaluation. In this article, through the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation of investment risk of the enterprise, we may have an approximate understanding about the investment risk factor to the enterprise, the resulting possibility of investment risk and the serious degree of investment risk, basically grasp the condition of safety in investment, seek security problem which needs to solve, thus have to set down the pointed appropriate safety control decision-making, strengthen the safety control work, safeguard the benign development of the enterprise(Yin 2002, Saaty 1977).

0.20.150⎞0.200⎟ 0.20.150.2⎟0.20.20⎟⎠

References

Chen, X. H. and Liu, W (2003). Fuzzy evaluation of the real estate

investment risks, Wuhan University of Technology publishing, Wuhan, China.

Green, R. K. (1997). “Follow the Leader: How Changes in Residential and

Non-Residential Investment Predict in GDP.” Real Estate Eeonomies, 45-47.

Liu, Q. Y. (2003). Real estate investment analysis, Dongbei University of

Finance and Economics publishing,, Harbin, China.

Lu, K. H. (2005). Basic system with the real estate policy, China

Architecture and Building publishing, Beijing, China.

Myers, S. (1984). “FinaneeTheory and Financial Strategy.” J. of Inter-Faees , 14, 126-137.

Peter, J., Cmsbie, Jeffrey, R., and Bohn (2000). “Modeling Default Risk,”

SAN FRANCISCO: KMV. LLC, 3, 5-8.

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Architecture and Building publishing, Beijing, China.

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structures.” J of Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 15(3), 234–81. Ye, J. P., and Liang, X. G. (2005). Real estate broker Code, China

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Normalized,0.3+0.2+0.2+0.2+0.2=1.1,CP =(0.3/1.1,0.2/1.1,0.2/1.1,0.2/1.1,0.2/1.1)=(0.28,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18).(P—Probability).

Evaluation content 2 (The result created by investment risk): Similarly we can gain: CR = (0.15, 0.22, 0.22, 0.22, and 0.19). (R-Result).

3.5 Calculate the Total Score of the System and Confirm the Risk Grade

The grade score of each remark is shown in the Table 6.

Therefore we can gain the total score of the two evaluation contents separately:

F P =CP *ST (0.28*100+0.18*80+0.18*60+0.18*40+0.18*20) =64

F R =CR * ST = (0.15*100+0.22*80+0.22*60+0.22*40+0.19*20) =58.4. (S-Score)

risk is: F ==61

Here we divide the investment risk into 5 grades, as is shown in the Table 7.According to the Table 7, we can gain that the risk grade of the investment risk of the coking enterprise is 4(dangerous)(Chen 2003).

325

Analysis on Risk Evaluation of Real Estate Investment

作者：作者单位：

MENG Jun， SUN Chao

MENG Jun(School of Science, National Soybean EngineeringTechnological Research Center,

Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin, China 150001)， SUN Chao(Agricultural Economics andManagement, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, China 150001)

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引用本文格式：MENG Jun. SUN Chao Analysis on Risk Evaluation of Real Estate Investment[会议论文] 2009