解读中国的"一带一路"倡议

Understanding China’s Belt and Road Initiative

解读中国的“一带一路”倡议

Opportunities and Risks 机遇与风险

SOURCE: AP/Anonymous

Barges navigate on the Grand Canal in China, plying a trade route built 2,500 years ago, October 2010.

By Ariella Viehe, Aarthi Gunasekaran, Hanna Downing

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

China is increasingly flexing its economic muscle in order to assert itself as a responsible global power. The United States’ reaction has been generally skeptical—even negative. In March 2015, the United States at first privately and then publicly opposed China’s establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, or AIIB, even as 53 other countries joined as founding members. In July, dramatic falls in the Chinese currency market sparked renewed U.S. concern regarding China’s assertive role in international finance and its potentially destabilizing effects on global commerce, as well as its influence on the U.S. dollar’s dominance as a global currency.

中国日益凸显其经济实力，以彰显其作为负责任大国的身份。美国对此一贯持怀疑态度，甚至是消极态度。2015年3月，美国首次由私下方式转为以公开方式反对中国成立“亚洲基础设施投资银行” (亚投行)，即便是在53个国家成为“亚投行”创始成员国之后，美国亦是如此。2015年7月，中国货币市场利率急速下滑，引发美国对中国在国际金融中的可靠地位、中国对全球商业产生的不稳定的影响和中国对美元作为全球主导货币的影响的新一轮担忧。

While these developments raise questions within the United States and other developed countries, many developing countries eagerly welcome China’s investment. Chinese investments in Asia, the Middle East, and Eastern Europe—provided under the new Belt and Road initiative—are responding to the regions’ need for investment and development. Such development is certainly a boon to China, as well as the United States. New rail, roads, and ports provide access to previously excluded regions, such as the energy-rich states of Central Asia, while new energy and communications infrastructure can accelerate productivity for local economies in South and Southeast Asia. Yet, for the economies of these developing countries and the United States’ own economic interests in the region, how—and if—China will undertake these development initiatives in a cooperative and sustainable manner is crucial to understand.

然而在这些事态发展对美国和其他发达国家发问的过程中，很多发展中国家却热切盼望中国的投资。在新的“一带一路”倡议支持下，中国在亚洲、中东和东欧等地区的投资响应了这些地区对投资和发展的需求。这些发展无疑给中国带来了福利，对美国来说，亦是如此。新的铁路、公路和港口建设项目进驻之前排除在外的地区如中亚能源丰富的国家；同时，新能源和交通基础设施建设能够加快南亚、东南亚当地经济的生产率。然而，对于区域内的发展中国家经济体和存在美国自身利益的经济体来说，理解中国如何/是否以合作和可持续的方式承担起这些发展项目的建设至关重要。

The Belt and Road initiative concept

“一带一路”倡议的概念

In September 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping formally announced the Silk Road Economic Belt in Kazakhstan and subsequently expanded the program to include the Maritime Silk Road in February 2014. Commonly referred to in English as the Belt and Road initiative, the program aims to unlock massive trade potential and bolster economic development to the so-called belt—the land route starting in western China that crosses through Central Asia to the Middle East—as well as to the so-called road: the maritime route around Southeast Asia, the Persian Gulf, and the Horn of Africa.

2013年9月，中国国家主席习近平在哈萨克斯坦正式提出“丝绸之路经济带”的倡议，随后于2014年2月对这一倡议的内容加以补充，将21世纪“海上丝绸之路”纳入其中, 在英语中通常将其统称为“the Belt and Road” Initiative（“一带一路”倡议）。“一带一路”倡议旨在释放庞大的贸易潜能，支撑所谓的“丝路经济带”（陆路路线以中国西部地区为起点，途经中亚，到达中东地区）和“海丝之路”（海路路线覆盖东南亚、波斯湾和“非洲之角”等地区）沿线国家的经济发展。

图1：中国“丝绸之路经济带”和21世纪“海上丝绸之路”路线图（公布于2015年6月）

Given its leading role in decades of global development, the United States should keep an eye on the Belt and Road initiative’s expansion but avoid instinctively reacting negatively to China’s global economic ambitions. The United States should instead assess specific projects in key regions and make smarter, nuanced assessments regarding China’s rising role in the world and its effect on the international system, as well as what it will mean for U.S. interests around Asia and beyond.

鉴于中国在过去几十年发展过程中的主导地位，美国应该密切关注“一带一路”倡议的发展，但要避免本能地消极反对中国的全球经济抱负。相反，美国应当对重点区域的具体项目进行评估，对中国在世界上的地位上升、中国对国际秩序的影响以及中国对美国在亚洲和世界的利益的意义作出更明智、更细致的评估。

The Belt and Road initiative has become a defining strategy for economic outreach to China’s partners—a wide range of nations that include Spain, Indonesia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, as well as others. The United States’ reaction has been fairly muted. In a March 2015 Washington, D.C., panel, Deputy Secretary of State Tony Blinken suggested that the Chinese effort was “consistent” with U.S. goals and could be “complimentary” with U.S. efforts but had few examples to offer.

“一带一路”倡议已成为中国与具有合作伙伴关系的国家开展经济合作的决定性战略，其合作伙伴范围很广，包括西班牙、印度尼西亚、俄罗斯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和其他国家。美国对此一直持相当温和的态度。2015年3月，美国常务副国务卿在华盛顿指出，中国的“一带一路” 倡议与美国的战略目标相一致且彼此呼应，但却未能举出几个例子。

The Belt and Road initiative in reality

真真正正的“一带一路”倡议

Through open-source and field research, the Center for American Progress has tracked funded Belt and Road initiatives in order to see where and how these contracts and projects are developing—specifically focusing on which countries in Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa are receiving heavy investment, as well as what types of projects are emerging. Current projects reflect China’s economic expertise, such as financing comparatively low-cost manufacturing or infrastructure initiatives, and China’s global economic needs, such as easier access to ports and new sources of energy. For example, President Xi’s state visits have consistently highlighted new projects under the Belt and Road initiative, including the Suez Canal in Egypt, energy production in Pakistan, and port development in Indonesia. Also, recent maps of the Belt and Road initiative have adopted existing trade corridors as additions, including the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Corridor, and others.

美国进步中心通过开源和实地研究，了解了获得“一带一路”倡议资金支持的项目，意在察看这些项目合同和项目的实施情况，重点关注亚洲国家、获得大笔投资的中东和北非地区和新兴项目类型等情况。当前的项目体现出中国的经济专长(支持成本相对低的制造业或基础设施项目建设)和中国的全球经济需求（如通往港口和获取新能源的便捷渠道的项目）。例如，中国国家主席习近平的一系列国事访问一直将新项目作为“一带一路”倡议框架下的重点项目，包括埃及的苏伊士运河、巴基斯坦的能源生产和印度尼西亚的港口建设等项目。同样，中国将现有的几条贸易走廊作为补充内容纳入“一带一路”倡议路线图之中，其中包括“中国—巴基斯坦经济走廊”、“孟加拉—中国—印度—缅甸经济走廊”和其他走廊。

Despite locking in more than 1,400 contracted projects and $7.06 billion worth of contracts with more than 60 countries, the Belt and Road initiative has faced political, social, and economic obstacles that are an inherent part of economic development and global partnerships. How China responds and adapts to these obstacles will remain important for U.S. interests across Belt and Road initiative countries.

尽管中国与60多个国家启动了1400多项承包项目，签订了总额为70.6亿美元的项目合约，但“一带一路”倡议仍面临政治、社会和经济上的困难，这些困难是经济发展和全球伙伴关系发展的一个内在部分。中国如何应对这些困难，对美国在“一带一路”沿线国家中的利益来说将仍旧是重要的。

Belt and Road initiative quick facts

“一带一路”倡议见成效

• More than 60 countries have welcomed Silk Road Economic Belt and Maritime Silk Road investments.

全世界60多个国家对“丝绸之路经济带”和21世纪“海上丝绸之路”倡议表示欢迎。

• China has launched the $40 billion Silk Road Fund for Belt and Road initiative projects. Current projects are also funded by the China Development Bank, the Agriculture Development Bank, and the Export-Import Bank of China.

中国出资400亿美元成立“丝路基金”，为“一带一路”建设项目提供融资支持。 另外，这些建设项目由中国国家开发银行、中国农业发展银行和中国进出口银行3家银行共同出资。

• Belt and Road initiative projects accounted for more than 40 percent of China’s overseas construction projects in the first half of 2015, with returns to be realized over a period of 10 years or more.

2015年上半年，“一带一路”建设项目占中国海外总建设项目的40%以上，投资回报期在10年左右。

• As of July 2015, the Belt and Road initiative has announced more than 1,400 contracted projects related to high-speed rail, electricity upgrades, port development and enhancements, as well as coal power plants.

截至2015年7月，“一带一路”倡议宣布达成了1400多项承包工程项目，包括高铁、电力系统升级、港口开发与升级、火电厂等项目。

• Chinese enterprises have signed $7.06 billion worth of contracts with more than 60 countries involved in the Belt and Road initiative—a year-on-year increase of 17 percent.

中国企业与“一带一路”沿线的60多个国家签订了总额为70.6亿美元的项目合约，同比增长17%。

• China has specified five types of Belt and Road initiative projects: policy coordination, facilities connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and strengthening people-to-people bonds.

中国提出“一带一路”5大合作重点：政策沟通、设施联通、贸易畅通、资金融通、民心相通。

• China’s gross domestic product, or GDP, growth is expected to fall below 7 percent as early as 2015, making Silk Road connections more important for private-sector growth outside of China, as well as for excess manufacturing capacity such as building new markets overseas.

2015年初，中国国内生产总值（GDP）增速的预期目标将低于7%。“一带一路”对接项目的建设对中国境外私人企业的发展和中国过剩产能的解决（如建立新的海外市场）的作用越发重要。

Four key takeaways 四大主要成果

Current Belt and Road initiative projects are linked by their proximity and utility to diversify and insulate China’s trade access. The Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor

will allow China to circumvent India and the Straits of Malacca, and as a result, it is critical in shortening Chinese trade routes. Israel is an inland corridor that keeps China immune from the effects of Egypt’s political instability on the Suez Canal. Indonesia’s ports and strategic maritime location is a critical pillar in Southeast Asian trade, while Europe is another destination market for Chinese goods and finance. Recently, China and Spain have heralded an agreement for rail transportation from western China’s Xinjiang province to Madrid, Spain. The rail line is expected to cut the transit time between the two destinations by more than half, taking approximately 21 days rather than 45 days through shipping routes. Similarly, new energy development in Pakistan and Central Asia seeks to diversify energy access as China observes the volatility in the Middle East. Furthermore, China has sought to vary its financial markets, seeking linkages with Germany’s Börse stock exchange in order to increase trading in renminbi and accelerate its use as a global currency.

当前，“一带一路”建设项目相互联系：既具有相似性，又使中国的贸易机会多元化。“中国—巴基斯坦经济走廊” 建设项目使得中国绕行印度和马六甲海峡，因此，这对缩短中国的贸易路线至关重要；作为一条内陆走廊，以色列可以使中国在苏伊士运河上的贸易路线免遭埃及政局不稳定因素的影响；印度尼西亚的港口及其海上战略位置是东南亚贸易往来的重要支点，同时，欧洲是中国商品和金融的另一个目标市场；中国和西班牙近日对外宣称一项铁路运输建设项目的协议，该项目由中国西部的新疆自治区为起点，到达西班牙的马德里，该铁路线预计将把两地之间的运输时间缩短一半以上，将45天的海上航运时间缩短至大约21天。

在中国观察到中东地区的不稳定因素时，巴基斯坦和中亚国家新能源的发展也同样寻求多元化的能源获取方式。此外，中国已寻求改变其金融市场现状，实现与德国证券交易所的证券交易相对接，以增加人民币的交易量，加快将人民币作为全球性货币的使用速度。

The Belt and Road initiative pursues development projects that enhance the domestic economic viability of potential trade partners. For example, investments with Southeast Asian countries include large infrastructure projects—ports, energy plants,

and urban housing—that meet the host countries’ development demands. The theme of integration and connectivity inherent to the Belt and Road initiative is in sync with other similar regional initiatives, such as the still-developing Master Plan on ASEAN Connectivity. Through Chinese government-backed financial institutions and the $40 billion Silk Road Fund, Chinese loans offer financing beyond what partner governments or other international institutions are offering. Many of these countries welcome Belt and Road initiative investments—particularly in expensive infrastructure—but some countries, such as Ukraine, are already struggling to repay the extensive loans that are required to finance such projects.

“一带一路”倡议推行可以加强国内潜在贸易伙伴的经济活力的开发项目。例如，中国在东南亚的国家的投资包括大型基础设施项目如港口、能源工厂、城市住房等，以满足东道主国家的发展需求。“一带一路”倡议内在的主题—融合和互联互通与世界上其他类似的地区性倡议相一致，例如仍处于发展中的《东南亚国家互联互通总体规划》。在中国政策性金融机构和400亿美元的“丝路基金”的支持下，中国提供的融资贷款的范围要比与中国建立伙伴关系的国家或其他金融机构广。其中，很多国家对“一带一路”倡议的投资表示欢迎，尤其是对昂贵基础设施的投资。然而，像乌克兰这样的一些国家，它们已经在努力偿还这些项目亟需的大量融资贷款。

The Belt and Road initiative is heavily invested in countries that have both a strong government relationship with China and hold popular support for Chinese investment. China’s bilateral relationships with partner countries have been key—both in ensuring political support for Chinese-led development, as well as in providing domestic security and engagement with villages and workers affected by Chinese projects. This is a nuanced departure from China’s traditional noninterference approach to development and business relationships with partner countries. China’s strong political connections on the government level have been useful for its economic activity in partner countries. For example, Pakistan has promised to provide domestic security forces for its $46 billion Chinese-led Belt and Road initiative projects. However, in other countries, China’s bilateral relationships have weakened at the local level. Construction of the Myitsone Dam in Myanmar is at a standstill due to local protests regarding the environmental and cultural effects of damming the river. Sri Lanka has also halted Chinese-funded projects because of development and political concerns. As the Myanmar Institute of Strategic and International Studies has noted:

“一带一路”倡议大量投资于与中国政府关系紧密且衷心支持中国投资的国家。与中国建立双边关系的伙伴国家是其投资重点，这样既可以赢得它们对中国引领的发展的支持，也可以为中国的投资项目提供国内安全和全民参与。这与中国传统上的不干涉与伙伴国家之间的发展和商业关系的政策有微妙的偏离。中国与伙伴关系国家紧密的政府级别的政治联系对中国在伙伴国家开展的经济活动有所裨益。例如，巴基斯坦承诺为中国在巴基斯坦境内主持修建的460亿美元的“一带一路”建设项目提供安全保障。然而，在其他的一些国家，中国与其建立的伙伴关系在地方一级层面上遭到削弱。缅甸的密松大坝建设项目搁浅，这是因为当地居民抗议拦河筑坝会对当地的环境和文化产生影响；斯里兰卡出于对发展

和政治关切的考虑也中止了中国援建的项目。正如缅甸战略与国家问题研究院所指出的那样：

[T]he Belt and Road Initiative was generally welcomed by many countries, but there were also countries that had concerns and apprehensions … [success] would greatly depend on the successful implementation of the project.

“一带一路”倡议受到许多国家的广泛欢迎，但是，还有一些国家对此倡议持关切和忧虑态度。“一带一路”倡议的成功取决于该倡议能否顺利实施。

Such projects in the region have not appeared as official projects of the Belt and Road initiative.

区域内的建设项目未曾出现涉及 “一带一路”倡议的官方项目。

Finally, as the above trends imply, while Chinese firms and government entities are pursuing Belt and Road initiative projects independently of one another, their respective tracks are both parallel and coordinated. CAP’s analysis of press reports notes that the commercial efforts—such as those in the Special Economic Zone for Myanmar—are largely motivated by how investments will help China’s economy. Other contracts, such as handshake agreements between two governments, are worked out between Chinese government entities—embassies and ministries—and partner governments and then handed off to Chinese companies to implement. With its overarching goals, the broad Belt and Road initiative has allowed the Chinese government and Chinese companies to work in relative tandem.

最后，正如以上发展态势所意味的那样，中国企业和政府机构独立开展“一带一路”建设项目的过程中，这些项目各自的运作方式具有相似性和协调性。中国议事专家协会（CAP）对相关的新闻报道研究表明，中国参与的这些商业活动（如缅甸经济特区内的建设项目）在很大程度上是出于对项目投资如何推动中国经济发展方面的考虑。对于其他的合作协议，例如两国政府间的握手协议是中国政府机构—大使馆和部委与各伙伴国家签订，再交给中国相关企业负责实施建设。从全局出发，“一带一路”倡议允许中国和企业共同参与项目建设。

The Belt and Road initiative is fulfilling a global demand for investment and development that can connect millions of people and spur increased economic growth for both China and many other nations stuck in their development paths. Yet, as one Chinese interlocutor noted, “We rely too much on money to solve our problems.” As its experience in Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and elsewhere indicates, China will need to grapple with the additional political, social, and economic considerations inherent to successful investment and development. With the international development community prioritizing sustainability, it is in the interest of China, the United States, and partner countries to ensure that the Belt and Road initiative continues to evolve and adapt in the coming months and years. Such adaptation can not only achieve important economic development—it can also ensure China does so sustainably and in a manner that does not undermine that very development.

“一带一路”倡议力图满足全球范围内的投资发展需求，将数百万人联系在一起， 刺激中国和许多陷入发展困境的其他国家的经济持续增长。然而，正如中方的一位受访者所说的那样，“我们太依赖于用钱来解决问题。”正如中国此前在斯里

兰卡和缅甸及其他地区所经历那样，中国需要解决与投资开发顺利实施有着内在联系的其他政治、社会和经济问题。随着可持续性国际社区的优先发展，确保“一带一路”倡议持续推进和适应未来数月乃至数年的发展需求，符合中国、美国和其他伙伴国家的利益。这样做，不仅可以使经济取得重要发展，还可以确保中国实现可持续发展而不是影响其发展。

Ariella Viehe is a CFR Fellow with the National Security and International Policy team at the Center for American Progress. Aarthi Gunasekaran is a Research Assistant at the Center. Hanna Downing is a former intern at the Center.