略论我国矿业海外投资项目的风险评价
技术经济研究
Study on Technical Econom
略论我国矿业海外投资项目的风险评价
■
梁 斌
(兰州石化职业技术学院应用化学工程系,甘肃 兰州 730060)
摘要:我国企业走出去投资开发国外的矿产资源是以具体的投资项目为依托的。在对投资项目进行经济评价时,就应重视其中的风险分析,通过风险因素识别对风险发生的概率进行估计,在此基础上运用模糊综合评价的方法再对风险进行综合评价,估算风险发生的可能性及其后果的大小,以减少项目计量上的不确定性,以利于做出投资决策。
关键词:矿业;海外投资;风险因素分析;风险估计;风险评价
中图分类号:F407.1 文献标识码:B 文章编号:1672-6995(2011)02-0045-03
1 引言
随着我国经济的持续快速发展,资源约束将越来越成为影响国民经济可持续发展的一个重大因素,资源安全将成为关系社会经济发展全局的一个重大问题,加快开发利用海外资源将是我国的必然选择。但是我国利用海外资源特别是“走出去”建立海外资源供应基地的工作还比较薄弱。所以应当把利用海外资源的工作放到突出的地位,采取有力措施,大力支持我国企业“走出去”开展国际合作,开发利用海外资源[1]。
我国企业走出去投资开发国外的矿产资源是以具体的投资项目为依托的,在对投资项目进行经济评价时,就应重视其中的风险分析,对可能带来投资失败的各种风险因素进行有效的识别,对各个风险因素可能产生的风险的大小进行量化处理,最后对各个风险因素所产生的风险进行综合评价,从而
得出风险的大小,以利于科学的决策。
的风险;保证企业能进行简单再生产的风险因素;安全保障风险因素[2]。
2 我国矿业海外投资项目风险因素识别
风险因素识别是应对风险的重要步骤,风险因素识别就是采用一定的方法,如头脑风暴法、专家访谈法、历史资料查阅法等确定对项目有影响的风险类别。矿产资源赋存隐蔽,成分复杂多变,因而对它的勘探、开发必然伴随着大量的偶然性和不确定性,总有不同程度的风险存在,且风险不仅限于矿业开发的某一特定环节,而是存在于矿业开发的全过程。因此,在进行境外矿业项目投资决策时,必须分析项目可能存在的各种风险因素。一般而言,矿业开发项目存在的风险可以分为以下几类:地质勘查及地质储量有关的风险;市场供求风险;政策风险;环境保护和治理方面的风险;项目建设技术经济方面
3 风险估计
风险估计是对识别出的风险因素进行量化,估计风险发生的概率对项目的影响,发生概率可用数学模型、统计方法进行客观估计,也可采用专家打分分级的方法进行主观判断。这种评价需要由地质勘探,采选工程、财经、法律和商务等各有关领域具备专长和经验的人员来参与完成,一个矿业项目总是包含多个风险因素,风险管理的重点就是对那些发生概率大且影响大的因素采取措施加以控制和防范[3]。
4 风险综合评价
风险评价是估算风险发生的可能性及其后果的大小,以减少项目计量上的不确定性。在对项目的单个风险进行估算和量化的基础上,考虑各个单个风险综合起来的总体
▲ 基金项目:兰州石化职业技术学院教研基金资助项目(SK-08)
▲ 作者简介:梁斌(1973-),男,甘肃省兰州市人,兰州石化职业技术学院应用化学工程系讲师,管理学硕士,研究方向:企业
管理。
2011.2
Natural Resource Economics of China
45
技术经济研究
tudy on Technical Economy
效果,最后确定项目的整体风险是(成功)区间上的隶属函数。新项否能被接受。通过一定的评价方法目评价涉及到的因素错综复杂,有对各风险事件后果进行评价。确定许多不能用精确数学表达的模糊因可接受程度,根据可接受或者危害素。每个专家提出来的评判结果不程度的不同,确定对风险应该采取同,须对各位专家的意见进行综合什么样的应对措施。
评判[4]
。
4.1 评价指标体系的选取及原则
4.3 矿业投资项目风险的模糊综合为了增强评价模式的科学性,评价模型
指标体系的构建和评价方法的选取(1)评价因素集与指标尤其重要。在设计指标体系时,主权重集:分析影响矿业投资要考虑以下几个原则:(1)对风项目的所有因素,得到因素险因素数量的选取要合适;(2)集U={U1,U2...,Un},其中
尽量减少风险因素指标间的相关Uk
(k=1,2,L,9)为第k个风险主因性;(3)尽量增强风险因素指标素;相应的权重集W={w1,w2,L,wn}体系的完备性。综合上述的原则并其中wk{k=1,2,L,9}表示指标Uk在U结合我国的具体国情,现确定风险9
中的权重,∑wk=1k
=1权重的确定用层
评价的指标体系如下(图1): 次分析法。
4.2 评价方法的选择
(2)评语集:V={v1,v2,Lvm},
图1 海外矿业投资项目风险评价指标体系
矿业投资的风险评价选用模糊其中vj(j=1,2,L,m)表示由低到高
综合评价方法,因为矿业勘探开发的各级评语,本文中取m=5,对于手段及其所获资料有限,致使对某矿业项目的风险评价,其评语等级一海外矿业投资项目的评判是模糊分为:低风险,较低风险,一般风概念。在投资开发前没有一个专家险,较高风险,高风险。
敢断言这个项目一定能获得成功,(3)评价矩阵的确定:实际上它是一个介于0(失败)或1从Uk到V的模糊评价矩阵为
46
Natural Resource Economics of China
2011.2
⎡rk1rR=⎢1
k⎢rk1
2
rk12Lrk15⎤
kM2LrMk⎥⎢⎣rMM25
⎥
nk
1rkn2Lrkn5⎥⎦
其中rkij
(i=1,2,L,n;j=1,2,3,4,5;k=1,2,L,9)
表示第k个主因素中第i个子因素指标uki对于评语vj的隶属度,即子评价因素uki获得vj(j=1,2,3,4,5)评语的比率,它是以单因素子评价形式出现的。rkij的值可按如下方法确定,对专家评价结果进行统计整理可得:对于指标uki有vi1个v1级评语,
vi2个v2级评语,…,vi5个v5级评语,则对于i=1,2,…,n
有
rv
ij
kij
=
∑5vj=1
ij
i=1,2,…,n;j=1,2,3,4,5;k=1,2,…,94.4 综合评价
(1)一级模糊综合评价运算即按各因素进行模糊综合评价,先对各子因素层指标uki的评价矩阵Rk进行模糊运算,得到主因素指标层Uk对于评语集V的隶属向量
Bk:Bk=WkoRk=(bk1,bk2,bk3,bk4,bk5,)模糊子集Bk是第一级模糊综合评价的结果。在这里o代表模糊运算符号。
(2)二级模糊综合评价运算通过第一级模糊综合评价的运算,得到模糊综合矩阵:
⎡⎢B1⎤⎡b1b12
Lb15⎤
⎢B2⎥⎥⎢R==⎢b
1
2
b2Lb25⎥⎢⎥
⎢M⎥⎥⎢⎢
MMLM⎥
⎣B9⎦⎣b19b92Lb⎥
95⎦
主因素权重向量W={W1,
W2,…,W9},按照模糊综合评价模型再对R进行模糊矩阵运算,即进行第二次模糊综合评价,得到目
技术经济研究
Study on Technical Econom
标层对于评语集的隶属向量为
⎡B1⎤⎢B⎥
B=WoR=w,w,L,wo⎢2⎥=b,b,b,b,b
12912345
⎢M⎥B9⎥⎢⎣⎦
进行还原变换,即
∗∗
B=(c1b1∗,c2b2,L,c5b5)=(b1,b2,L,b5)
求,使得我国的矿业公司必须走出去参与国际竞争,建立属于我们国家控制的世界级的大型矿业公司,这就要求我国的具有一定实力的矿业公司要充分重视科学管理方法的应用,引入各种有效的管理方法,
在矿业的对外投资中,提高风险的可预见性,尽量避免风险的发生同时应采取应对各种风险的有效办法。
收稿日期:2010-10-11
()()
B即为最终评判结果,bj表示评价对象对应评语集中第j个等级的的隶属度,按最大隶属度原则,取bj中的最大者相对应的评价等级为评判结论。
4.5 模糊综合评价应注意的问题
运用模糊综合评价对矿业投资项目进行风险评价虽然有它的优点,但由于风险的评价本身是一项复杂而困难的工作,要想获得比较客观和有效的评价结果,应该正确地使用模糊综合评价的方法进行评价。为达到这个目的应该注意以下几个方面的问题:
第一,是与矿业投资项目相关的信息和数据资料的获取;
第二,有关评价专家组的选择也必须科学合理地安排,这是评价中应解决的最为关键的问题;
第三,各风险因素相关性的处理问题;
第四,模糊综合评价结果失效的处理。
当∑bj≠1,可作归一化处理,
j=1
5
即令
b∗j=
bj
∑b得B*=(b1*,b2*,…,b5*,)到
j=1
j
5
取隶属度最大者即bi*最大者为矿业投资项目的风险程度。
在计算中有时会出现当因素集
U较大,即因素集个数n较大时,在权向量的和为1的条件约束下,相对隶属度bij权系数wi往往偏小,权向量W与模糊矩阵R不匹配,结果会出现超模糊现象,分辨率很差,无法区分谁的隶属度更高,甚至造成评判失败,因此需要对模型加以改进。
(3)模型的改进[5]
令矩阵R的列向量之和为
cj=∑bij
i=1n
则有bij=
∗
bijc
j
构造新矩阵:
∗
⎤Lb15∗⎥Lb2⎥5LM⎥Lb∗⎥
95⎦
⎡b∗
1⎢1∗∗b⎢1R=2
⎢M⎢b∗
1⎣9
b2
Mb∗
92
b12
∗
∗
则B*=W.R*=(b1*,b2*,b3*,b4*,b5*,)虽然求出了B但它是失真的,不能作为最终评判依据,必须对它
*
5 结束语
保障我国经济的可持续发展及满足人民生活水平不断提高的要
2011.2
Natural Resource Economics of China
47
英文摘要
bstracts
(Henan Academy of Social Sciences, Zhengzhou 450002, China)
Abstract: This paper argues that the reasons behind this inadequate protection of wetland development lie in the fact that: legal system is imperfect and lack of specific protection system; the norm of supervision and punishment is weak. Some of the potential problems that may arise are also examined, and this is followed by several suggestions, these include: establishing a scientifi c and effective local legal system; well defining the basic principles of conservation development; improving management and coordination mechanisms; strictly fixing path and measures for development; and establishing the legal system that involve matters: the complete specifications of binding character, authorizations and performance; integrated legal hierarchy of laws, administrative laws and regulations, local laws and regulations, departmental rules and regulations and normative documents; as well as ecological protection, ecological compensation, the restrictions of development, the punishment of irresponsibility, and environmental public litigation.
Key words: wetland; protection; development; legal system
41
Improved Diamond Model-based Analysis on Competitiveness of Henan Coal Industry
SONG Ying-zhao, ZHU Ke-jun
(School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074)
Abstract: The paper refines the Diamond Model based on
characteristics of coal industry and by referring to relevant evaluation models and applies the improved model to analyze factors of competitiveness of Henan coal industry and draw a conclusion that the biggest competitiveness of Henan coal industry comes from traffic advantage and technical innovation. Competitiveness of Henan coal industry shall be improved by focusing on intensifying geological survey and exploration, speeding up Q&A, restructuring and reform of coal enterprises, developing laws and regulations meeting market needs to further integrate middle to small coal mines, further strengthening the implementation of coal-electricity joint operation, involvement of steel enterprises in coal industry and diversifi cation strategy, and advancing technology improvement and reform to enhance independent innovation of enterprises.
Keywords: diamond model; coal industry; competitiveness; Henan Province
45
Preliminary Discussion of Risk Assessment for
Overseas Investment Project of China’s Mining
Industry
LIANG Bin
(Lanzhou Petrochemical College of Vocational Technology, Lanzhou
730060, China)
Abstract: Chinese enterprises rely on specifi
c investment projects when investing and developing overseas mineral resources. Hence,
importance shall be attached to risk analysis when economic
evaluation is made against investment projects and probability of
risk shall be estimated by identifying risk factors. On that basis,
comprehensive evaluation shall be made against risk with fuzzy
comprehensive evaluation method to estimate possibility of risk and
relevant consequence in order to minimize uncertainty of project
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Natural Resource Economics of China
2011.2
measurement and facilitate investment decision-making.
Keywords: mining industry; overseas investment; risk factor analysis; risk estimate; risk evaluation
48
Discussion on Internal Control System of Geological Prospecting Units from Corporate
Governance Perspective
WANG Yu-fang1, LIU Ye2,GUO Peng-hao3
(1.Qinhuangdao Mineral Hydro-Engineering Geological Team, Qinhuangdao, Hebei 066000,China; 2. Hebei Institute of Physical Education, Shijiazhuang 050031,China; 3. Hebei Qianxi Bureau of Finance, Qianxi 064300,China)
Abstract: This paper points out that geological prospecting units are still at a critical moment of transition and separation of institutions from enterprises, and so the internal control as the important core of enterprise management becomes more especially important. It is argued that perfect corporate governance is the fi rst condition for ensuring smooth operation of internal control system. Therefore, it is suggested that we should start from the point of corporate governance, and establish a internal control system which is appropriate for “three in one” and “mixing together” of administrative procedure, factors, activities and methods with regard to internal control existed in geological prospecting units; thus promoting the realization of goal and leap and integration of methods.
Key words: corporate governance; geological prospecting units; internal control
51
A Brief Discussion on Financial Management Methods for Construction (Infrastructure) Funds of
Geological Research Institutes
MA Yan-hua1, WANG Li2
(1.Institute of Geophysical & Geochemical Exploration, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Langfang 065000; 2. Geological Data Center of Cores and Samples, Ministry of Land and Resouce, Sanhe 065201,China)
Abstract: Geological exploration and research 0institutes are normally public institutions receiving financial allocation from the government and their construction funds are fully from the state budgetary appropriation. As China carries out a very strict control over implementation rate of budgetary funds and no construction project is allowed to exceed budgetary estimate, it’s very important for fi nancial department to monitor and control the use of infrastructure funds during capital construction. Considering the nature of construction funds covered by the state budgetary appropriation, over-lapping management carried out by internal infrastructure, financial and assets management departments and absence of dedicated financial personnel of infrastructure department, construction funds shall be controlled as special project funds by financial department of relevant institute and specific management method shall be developed for special project funds accordingly to regulate operating procedure of construction funds and control construction funds effectively during construction in order to assure strict execution of the state budget.Keywords: construction funds; project funds; management method; geological research institute