奥巴马获胜演讲全文
美国经济衰退结束了?
美国的衰退是否已结束?少数乐观的经济学家已开始这样说,或是马上就会结束。
瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)首席经济学家尼尔•索斯(Neal Soss)表示:―如果说此轮衰退尚未见底,那么也将很快见底。‖
Cantor Fitzgerald的市场分析师马克•普拉多(Marc Prado)本周对客户表示:―我宣布衰退(几乎)正式结束,5月份的经济数据已明显转好。‖
很大程度上,持这种观点的人仍是少数。大多数经济学家认为,经济虽正在企稳,但尚未触底。
高盛(Goldman Sachs)首席经济学家扬•哈奇乌斯(Jan Hatzius)表示:―衰退结束并非不可能,但我觉得还为时尚早,5月份的就业人数仍减少了50万人以上。‖
摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席美国经济学家理查德•伯纳(Richard Berner)对此表示赞同:―我认为衰退会在几个月后结束——或许是在9月份至10月份。‖
负责判断衰退起止日期的美国国家经济研究局(NBER)商业周期测定委员会(Business Cycle Dating Committee),甚至尚未启动围绕本次衰退结束日期的讨论,而且很可能在18个月或更长时间内,都不会就此得出定论。
但无论如何,人们还是在谈论着衰退的结束,这一事实显示出,有关这一话题的争论已变得多么激烈。认为―衰退已结束‖的一派着重举出的证据,是新增申请失业救济人数和工业品新订单。
NBER商业测定周期委员会成员、西北大学(Northwestern University)教授罗伯特•戈登(Robert Gordon)最近发表的研究显示,以往的衰退,通常会在新申请失业救济人数见顶的4至6周后结束。
截至5月23日的最新数据显示,新申请失业救济人数或许已见顶于每周约63万人。
戈登表示:―我在推理后得出结论,根据NBER的标准,本轮商业周期的最终谷底很可能出现在今年5月或6月。‖
5月份的供应管理学会(ISM)制造业指数升至42.8,与以往衰退触底时的指数相符。新订单指数为51.1——自2007年12月本次衰退开始以来,首次升至50以上。
瑞士信贷的索斯表示:―51.1这个数字预示着,未来数月的工业产量将大幅回升——从深度收缩变为持平,甚至出现温和增长。‖
世界大企业联合会(Conference Board)消费者信心指数从4月的40,跃升至5月的54.9。数据显示,尽管房价仍在下跌,但房屋销量已经触底。
尽管如此,大多数专家仍对衰退已结束持怀疑态度。
NBER商业测定周期委员会对经济活动进行全面、综合的考察,重点放在国内生产总值(GDP)上,但也会考虑其它方面的情况,例如月度就业、个人收入、制造业产出和批发销售额等数据。
多数预测人士认为,美国经济要到今年下半年才会开始增长。ISM非制造业指数显示,5月份服务业部门的活动仅微幅上升,新订单则略有下降。这提醒人们,虽然制造业可能随着库存周期的结束得到可观的提振,但规模大得多的服务业部门却未必如此。
甚至新申请失业救济人数也仍高于上次衰退最糟糕月份的数值。实际可支配收入的增加,只是由刺激性减税和救济金发放增加所致。剔除通胀因素的消费者支出,在3月份和4月份均出现下降。
杰弗里•弗兰克尔(Jeffrey Frankel)表示,他将等待就业数据出现突破性的改善,以印证经济正在触底的观点。
NBER商业测定周期委员成员、另一位哈佛大学教授马丁•费尔德斯坦(Martin Feldstein)表示,谈到经济衰退已经结束,―虽然存在这种可能性,但可能性不大‖。
他表示:―我认为眼下更有可能是这种情况——财政刺激措施正发挥出积极的效果。在一段时间内,这将使得我们在过去两个季度见到的、经济全面萎缩的势头得以缓解,但财政刺激的效果是一次性的。‖
多数经济学家认为,经济不太可能再度恶化,资金压力的不断缓解和当前的超低利率,至少可支撑一种有限的复苏。
但如果费尔德斯坦是对的,那么经济就有可能陷入―双底‖衰退——换言之,经济将再度陷入一轮和此前极为接近的低迷,而人们最终将认定,这轮新的低迷是本次衰退的一部分。
Recession's end is nigh (almost)
Is the US recession over? A handful of bullish economists are starting to claim that it is, or that it very soon will be.
―The trough of the recession is imminent, if it has not already been passed,‖ said Neal Soss, chief economist at Credit Suisse.
―I have declared the recession (almost) officially over,‖ Marc Prado, market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, told clients this week. ―The May data clearly has turned the corner.‖
This is still very much a minority view. Most economists think the economy is stabilising but the low point has not yet been reached.
―It is not impossible. But it seems early to me, with payrolls still contracting at 500,000 plus as of May,‖ said Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs.
Richard Berner, chief US economist at Morgan Stanley, agrees. ―I think a few months later – perhaps September to October.‖
The National Bureau of Economic Research business cycle dating committee, which decides when recessions begin and end, has not even begun discussing the end date and will probably not reach a verdict for 18 months or more.
But the fact that the end of the recession is being discussed at all is a sign of how far the debate has moved on. The ―recession is over‖ camp highlights new claims for unemployment benefits and new orders for manufacturing goods.
Robert Gordon, professor at Northwestern University and a member of the NBER business cycle committee, recently published research that shows past recessions typically ended four to six weeks after new unemployment claims peaked.
The latest data, to the end of May 23, suggests new claims may have peaked at about 630,000 a week.
―My reasoning leads me to conclude that the ultimate NBER trough of the current business cycle is likely to occur in May or June 2009,‖ Mr Gordon said.
The ISM manufacturing survey for May rose to 42.8 – consistent with past recession troughs. The new orders index rose above 50 to 51.1 for the first time since December 2007, when this recession began.
―The 51.1 reading points to a big swing in industrial production over the next few months – from steep contraction to flat or even modest expansion,‖ Credit Suisse's Mr Soss said.
The Conference Board consumer confidence survey jumped from 40 to 54.9 in May, while data suggest housing has bottomed in volume terms even if prices are still falling.
Nonetheless, most experts remain sceptical that the recession is already over.
The NBER committee takes a broad overview of economic activity, emphasising gross domestic product but also looking at aspects such as monthly employment, personal income, manufacturing output and wholesale sales data.
Most forecasters think the economy will only start growing in the second half of the year. The ISM non-manufacturing survey showed that service sector activity only inched higher in May while new orders fell slightly. This is a reminder that while manufacturing may get a decent lift as the inventory cycle ends, the much larger service sector may not.
Even new unemployment claims remain higher than in the worst month of the last recession. Real disposable incomes have risen only because of stimulus tax breaks and higher benefit payments. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, fell in March and April.
Mr Frankel said he would be looking for a break in payrolls data to corroborate the notion that the economy was bottoming.
Martin Feldstein, another Harvard professor and NBER cycle dating committee member, said ―it is possible but unlikely‖ that the recession is already over.
―I think it is a more likely scenario that we are seeing the favourable effects of the fiscal stimulus,‖ he said. ―That, for a while, will offset the general diminished trend we have seen over the past two quarters, but it is a one-shot thing.‖
Most economists think a relapse is unlikely and that easing financial strains and ongoing ultra-low interest rates will support at least a muted recovery.
But if Mr Feldstein is right, there is a risk of a double-dip recession – or a renewed bout of weakness so close to the original one that it will ultimately be judged to have been part of the same recession.