GMAT阅读解析练习之全球变暖酝酿古怪天气-智课教育

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GMAT阅读解析练习之全球变暖酝酿古怪天气-智课教

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GMAT阅读最重要的就是要学会分析文章结构，理清文章脉络，把握作者的逻辑态度，简而言之就是要不断提高自己的阅读能力。但提高阅读能力不是一朝一夕就能实现的，为此，小编专门整理了一系列的GMAT阅读解析练习，本文包含了文章结构，题材分类，作者评价，难句解析……所有分析都淋漓尽致堪称完美，最大程度满足学生需要。希望能帮助大家不断提高阅读能力，最终取得满意的成绩。今天小编为大家整理的是关Global warming brews weird

weather的完美解析，赶快学起来吧。

Global warming brews weird weather

全球变暖酝酿古怪天气

Global warming has profoundly changed the odds of

extreme heat, rain and snowfall, researchers report on 27 April inNature Climate Change1. Climate change caused by humanactivities currently drives 75% of daily heat extremes and 18% ofheavy rain or snowfall events, the team found — warning thatfurther global warming will sharply increase the risks of suchweather. The researchers looked at 'moderate' extremes, whichthey defined as events expected to occur on 1 in every 1,000days under present conditions.

“Climate change doesn’t ‘cause’ any single weatherevent in a deterministic sense,” says Erich Fischer, a climatescientist at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich(ETH Zurich), Switzerland, and the study's lead author. “But awarmer and moister atmosphere does clearly favour morefrequent hot and wet extremes.” The researchers found thatlocal variations in weather are already large, even though theglobal average temperature has risen by just 0.85 °C since thestart of the Industrial Revolution.

This finding agrees with earlier research on climate andweather extremes. A paper published in Nature in 2011, for

example, found that climate change has already doubled the riskof the atmospheric conditions that produced catastrophic floodsin England and Wales in 20002; an earlier study found the sameresult for the conditions that triggered a massive European heatwave in 20033. And human influence on the ‘moderate’extremes examined in Fischer’s study is set to increase withevery degree that the temperature rises, finds the analysis. If theworld were to warm by 2 °C above the pre-industrial level,

human-caused climate change would drive 40% of rain and snowextremes and 96% of heat extremes, the researchers found.

Higher temperature, bigger influence

The probability of a daily heat extreme in a world with 2 °Cof warming is twice as high as that in a 1.5 °C world, and 5 timesthat under present conditions. “The rarer and more extreme anevent, the higher is the fraction of risk we can attribute to climatewarming,” says Fischer. He and co-author Reto Knutti, also aclimate researcher at ETH Zurich, analysed simulations from 25climate models. First they determined how many daily extremehot or wet events had occurred between 1901 and 2005. Thenthey compared these figures with model simulations of extremeweather frequency and severity between 2006 and 2100, under ascenario in which emissions of greenhouse gases remain high.

The team did not investigate how severely any changeswould affect societies and ecosystems in different parts of theworld. Even so, the results, which agree with the observedincrease in extreme rain and heat since the 1950s4, make a

strong case for policy efforts to keep global warming below 2 °C,says Fischer.

Model misgivings

Critics caution that existing climate models have troublereplicating observed rain and snowfall trends, raising questionsabout how well they can project future precipitation.

“All weather events are influenced by the changed

environment,” says Kevin Trenberth, a climate researcher withthe US National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder,Colorado. “The global perspective the authors provide ishelpful, but none of the models they use do precipitationrealistically and some are quite bad.”

But regardless of model uncertainties, the paper is a starkreminder to policy-makers and the general public that climatechange could have dramatic effects on human health and

welfare, says Michael Oppenheimer, a climate-policy researcherat Princeton University in New Jersey.

“The risk of heat-related premature deaths has alreadyincreased and it will very likely starkly increase further in the

future,” he says. “Clearly, governments should not only seek toslow global warming, but must also prepare societies for whatwarming will inevitably happen.”

先来预习一下生疏单词：

odds:几率，胜算，差别

moderate:稳健的，适度的，温和的

triggered:引起，引爆

severity:严重，猛烈

scenario:方案，情节，剧本

premature:早产儿，过早发生的

inevitably:不可避免地，必然滴

deterministic:确定性的，注定的

massive:大量的，厚重的

长难句解析：

Climate change caused by human activities currently drives75% of daily heat extremes and 18% of heavy rain or snowfall

events, the team found — warning that further global warmingwill sharply increase the risks of such weather.

句子主干the team found Climate change caused by humanactivities currently drives 75% of daily heat…句子的主语被放在了后面，省略了宾语从句的引导词that，caused by做后置定语修饰Climatechange，warning分词作伴随状语，that引导宾语从句。

Even so, the results, which agree with the observed increasein extreme rain and heat since the 1950s4, make a strong casefor policy efforts to keep global warming below 2 °C, saysFischer.

句子主干the results make a strong case for policy efforts tokeep global warming…which引导定语从句，修饰the results，Evenso表示“尽管，即使”make effort to…努力，不遗余力地做…

话题分类：自然科学

文章展开套路：现象解释型

作者态度是什么：客观评价

参考译文：

P1: 研究人员在4月27日的自然气候变化的报道中指出全球变暖已经深刻地改变了极端高温，降雨和降雪的可能性。该团队发现，人类活动导致的气候变化目前推动75%的日常酷热天气和18%的大雨或大雪事件，这警告我们全球进一步变暖将大幅度增加这样极端天气的风险。

P2：瑞士苏黎世联邦理工学院气候科学家，研究报告的主要作者埃里希菲舍尔说，“以确定的意义上说气候变化并不会导致任何单一天气事件，”“但是，温暖潮湿的大气明显有利于更频繁的极端的炎热和潮湿。”研究人员发现，即使全球平均气温自工业革命开始上升了0.85℃，当地的天气变化很大。

P3：这一发现和早期的极端天气和气候的研究一致。例如发表在2011年Nature上的一篇论文，他们发现，气候变化已经带来了大气条件的双倍风险，2002年在英格兰和威尔士发生了灾难性的洪水。早期研究也发现了相同的结果，引发2003年欧洲大规模的热浪天气。而在Fischer的研究中人类对于适度极端的影响也会随着温度的升高而增加。研究人员发现，如果世界温度高于工业化水平前2℃，人类造成的气候变化

将带动40%的雨雪极端事件和96%极端热的的天气。

P4：温度越高，影响力越大

“罕见和更加极端的情况下，较高的风险是，我们可以归因于气候变暖的部分，”菲舍尔说。他与合作人Reto Knutti，都是苏黎世联邦理工学院气候研究人员在，分析了25个气候模型。首先，他们确定了许多1901年至2005年发生的日常极热或极湿的事件是如何发生的，然后他们把这些数字与2006年和2010年极端天气的频率和严重程度的模型对比，前提是温室气体排放居高不下。

团队并没有研究变化如何剧烈影响地球上不同地方的社会和生态系统。即便如此，结果与290世纪50年代以来观察到的极端降水和酷热一致，需要强大的政策努力把全球变暖控制在2℃，Fischer说。

P5：模型疑虑

批评者警告说，现有的气候模型很难复制观察到的降雨和降雨趋势，对他们未来如何预测降水提出疑虑。“所有的天气事件受变化了的环境的影响，”科罗拉多州博尔德市的美国国家大气研究中心的气候研究员说。“作者提供的全球视角是有帮助的，但他们没有用任何一个做现实降水预测，并且有些是相当糟糕的。” 新泽西州普林斯顿大学气候政策研究员迈克尔·奥本海默说，不考虑模型的不确定性，这一论文很好的提醒政策制定者和一般公众，气候变化可能对人类健康和福利会有戏剧效果。“酷热造成的早死亡的风险已经增加，并很可能在今后进一步增加，”他说。“显然，政府不仅要设法减缓全球变暖，还必须为社会不可避免发生的变暖做准备。”

上述就是有关GMAT阅读解析练习的一篇文章，希望上述的解题方法能够给大家的备考带来一些积极地参考价值，俗话说“只要功夫深，铁杵磨成针”，提高阅读能力不能急于求成，只要掌握正确的方法，平时多加练习，拿下GMAT阅读指日可待。更多关于GMAT阅读材料解析练习的介绍小编会为大家呈现。预祝各位考生最终能够取得理想的考试成绩。