蓝宝石应用及市场-2015版:从LED到消费电子
《蓝宝石应用及市场-2015版:从LED 到消费电子》
2015年,苹果iPhone 智能手机和智能手表中的蓝宝石相关组件共消耗了全球20%的蓝宝石产能。蓝思科技近期宣布,计划将筹集9 42亿美元并投资5 32亿美元进一步增强蓝宝石生长和精加工能力。2014年,苹果及其合作伙伴和供应商花费了将近20亿美元,建立了一条蓝宝石显示屏供应链。
Sapphire Applications & Market 2015: from LED to Consumer Electronic
错过2014年的iPhone 6和iPhone 6 Plus,2016年苹果公司的新产品是否将采用蓝宝石显示屏呢?
蓝宝石显示屏供应链的投资活动仍在继续,为什么?
2015年,苹果iPhone 智能手机和智能手表中的蓝宝石相关组件共消耗了全球20%的蓝宝石产能。蓝思科技(Lens)近期宣布,计划将筹集9.42亿美元并投资5.32亿美元进一步增强蓝宝石生长和精加工能力。2014年,苹果及其合作伙伴和供应商花费了将近20亿美元,建立了一条蓝宝石显示屏供应链。蓝宝石材料供应商极特先进科技公司(GTAT )建造并安装了2135台ASF 蓝宝石长晶炉,伯恩光学(Biel Crystal)和蓝思科技部署了将近200台线切割设备和1000台精加工工具及配套设备。但是项目面临诸多问题,所以苹果最终放弃了将蓝宝石显示屏应用于iPhone 6的计划。原因是多方面的,但可以概括为“太早、太快、太多”。该项目期限太短,急于实现量产,然而晶体成长和加工所需的工艺和技术仍处于发展初期阶段。但这一激进的项目却为未来的发展奠定了基础:合作伙伴已经掌握提高蓝宝石产能的经验,并可以合理控制成本。许多制造商也学会了如何制造苹果手表外壳的复杂三维形状。 但问题是:为什么要使用蓝宝石?相比苹果目前使用的康宁“大猩猩”玻璃,蓝宝石的成本高出很多,耐损性差(容易破碎),透光性也差。虽然蓝宝石听上去就有一种奢侈品牌的感觉,但是苹果绝不会仅仅因为其魅力而采用。如果苹果最终选用蓝宝石,这意味着苹果必须有能力改善蓝宝石的抗破损能力,或者开发出基于蓝宝石的独特新功能。为了生存和茁壮成长,显示屏市场需要苹果起带头作用,并取得新突破。目前,除了苹果之外,似乎只有华为能够影响该市场,但与苹果相比,华为仍处于落后地位。不过,替代技术不断涌现,最近,许多OEM 厂商将具有氧化铝涂层的玻璃应用于手机,使得屏幕具有超强的抗划伤性。
2015年蓝宝石应用领域的市场份额情况
2015年,LED 消耗了全球78%的蓝宝石产能,但供应过剩影响市场营收和盈利能力 从2011年底开始,对于大多数供应商而言,蓝宝石价格已经出现小于等于成本的局面,但是2009年以来,蓝宝石产量却马不停蹄地上涨。该市场视产品类别有2-3倍的供应过剩现象,并且情况是复杂的:一线供应商通常保持高开工率运营并维持增长能力;二线供应商低开工率运营或完全没有运营。BIEMT 、住友金属矿业和其它一些公司均已退出蓝宝石市场。2014年,最大的赢家是Monocrystal 、奥瑞德(Aurora )、并木制作所(Namiki )、Rigidtech 和 兆远科技(Crystalwise ),在产量和营收方面实现了双赢。籽晶、晶锭和晶圆的全球市场营收为11亿美元。由伯恩光学、蓝思科技、水晶光电科技(Crystal Optech)等公司制造的成品部件市场规模为18亿美元。其中,赛翡蓝宝石科技(Saifei )的表现尤为引人注目,将其蓝宝石材料应用于日本京瓷的蓝宝石屏幕手机中。
在巨大的价格压力之下,蓝宝石产业成功地降低了成本,但是价格仍在快速下跌。2015年,平均销售价格下降了18%,抵消了由LED 晶圆出货量增长(+16%)所带来的营收。我们预计未来几年价格将继续下降,尽管预计未来五年LED 晶圆出货量的复合年增长率为5.2%,但是由于价格下降等因素使得其市场营收最终将基本持平。
各种智能手机中的指纹传感器介绍及涂层
如果苹果逐步淘汰现有的蓝宝石指纹识别技术,并于2018年在iPhone 中集成“In Display”指纹传感器,那么,光学晶圆(Optical wafers)市场将遇到困境。
图形化蓝宝石衬底的价格趋势(单位:美元)
谁将为苹果显示屏提供产能?
2015年7月,苹果仍在积极推动该项目,并调查供应链,但还没有做出最终决定。我们设想是苹果将于2016年发布一款蓝宝石iPhone 机型。如果该设想成立,那么预计一年之内苹果将需要约1亿块蓝宝石屏幕。苹果将会延续对产业链的投资方式,如苹果投资极特先进科技公司。这意味着一家或多家供应商需要加大投资、加强能力,以应对苹果蓝宝石屏幕可能性。
尽管存在风险,许多中国公司仍纷纷宣布加大投资力度,如奥瑞德(Aurora )、达瑞祥光电(DARX )、亿晶光电(Eging )、勤上光电(Kingsun )、晶禾光电(Sunphire )等,就目前而言,伯恩光学、蓝思科技是最可靠的两家公司。成熟的蓝宝石厂商拥有强大的专业知识和良好的成本优势,但还需要投资者或战略合作伙伴以提高产量。不管苹果订单花落谁家,对这些公司而言,留给他们的时间已经很短(距2016年新iPhone 发布的时间)。因此,2016年春天,蓝宝石产能必须到位。极特先进科技公司的约2400台ASF 蓝宝石长晶炉及其配套设备仍然是一个值得考虑的选择。现有的165kg 蓝宝石制作工艺并不能达到苹果给出的最初目标成本,但仍具有一定的竞争力。泡生法(Kyropoulos )是制作工艺的第二选择:Monocrystal 刚推出300 kg蓝宝石制作工艺。其它技术如VHGF 、EFG 或ARC Energy也具有竞争力,ARC Energy的新型CHES 长晶炉可生产300 kg蓝宝石晶锭。
如果机会兑现,那么未来2年蓝宝石市场增长将超过6倍。否则,许多由投资者或母公司支撑的厂商将迅速消失。目前而言,蛮力策略已见成效:实力较弱的竞争者已经消失,幸存下来的公司出货量巨大,并持续压低价格和保持投资,未来这些公司将巩固他们在蓝宝石市场中的地位。
2014年蓝宝石公司营收的市场份额
报告目录:
Executive Summary
• The 3 page summary
• China dominates
• Sapphire industry growth drivers: Historical perspective
• Application breakdown
• Consumer electronic applications
• List of mobile devices with sapphire components
• Smart watches
• Sapphire display covers
• 2014 Sapphire company revenue
• Sapphire supply and demand
• LED applications
• Alternative substrates
• Sapphire wafer forecast
• Core shipment forecasts
• What happened to silicon on sapphire?
Past year and Noteworthy News
Introduction to the Sapphire Industry
• Industry Overview
• Sapphire properties overview
• Sapphire properties vs. orientation
• Value chain
• Example: Sapphire wafer process
• Material defects and slicing
• Core / brick length
• Major industry players: crystal growth companies
• Major industry players: wafer slicing and finishing
• Major industry players: PSS
Status of the Sapphire Industry
• Price trends: cores for LED and optical wafers
• Material cost structure exemple: Aurora Sapphire
• Price trends: Conventional sapphire substrates for LED
• Price trends: Patterned sapphire substrates for LED (PSS)
• Discussion
• Price trends: bricks and optical wafers for consumer electronic
• 2008-2020 price forecast
• 2014 top 20 Sapphire company revenue for core, bricks & wafers
• Detailed breakdown by segment
• Revenue structure: captive and open markets
• 2014 revenue breakdown for Core & bricks and polished wafers
• 2014 revenue breakdown for optical and PSS wafers
• Geographic breakdown per product category
• Exchange rates impacts
Supply and demand analysis
• Definitions and metrics
• Brick and core extraction
• Geographic and product category geographic breakdown
• Crystal Growth Capacity: 2012-2015 evolution by region
• Crystal Growth Capacity: Top 20 ranking
• Crystal growth technology breakdown (Q3-2015)
• HEM furnaces
• Finishing Capacity: 2012-2015 evolution by region
• Finishing Capacity: Top 20 ranking
• PSS Capacity: 2012-2015 evolution by region
• PSS Capacity: Top 20 ranking
• Material, finishing and PSS Supply vs demand
• Attrition and consolidation
• Why does capacity keep increasing?
• Focus on China / Taiwan / Korea / Europe / North America
• Supply vs demand analysis: no sapphire display cover
• Supply vs demand analysis: sapphire display cover adoption
• Discussion
“Optical Wafers”market review and forecast: Camera lens, fingerprint readers and heart rate monitors covers
• Sapphire components at Apple
• Optical wafer manufacturing:
• Camera lens covers: overview and adoption trends
• Fingerprint reader covers: overview / emerging technologies/established technologies / alternative technologies / sapphire use / adoption trends
• Heart monitor sensor covers
• Optical Wafers 2012-2020 volume and revenue forecast / ingot (core) forecast Smart watches market review & forecast
• Forecasting the Smartwatch market
• Smartwatch volume forecast 2012-2020
• Sapphire in Smartwatches: Apple Watch / other brands / sapphire adoption rate forecast • Sapphire smartwatch cover volume & revenue forecast
• Sapphire covers design and slicing pitch
• Smartwatch volumes and forecast
Sapphire display covers - market review and forecast
• Mobile devices display covers-Overview
• Touch panels-technology overview
• Display and touch sensor structures
• Touch sensors and display panels supply chain
• Display cover manufacturing process
• Potential benefits of sapphire display covers: mechanical strength / dielectric constant • Putting sapphire to the test: GTAT vs Corning / Ubreakifix.com / impact of finishing process
• Conclusions on mechanical testing
• Major issues of Sapphire display covers
• Summary
• Current status
• Apple sapphire patent portfolio overview
• Which Strategy for differentiation?
• Sapphire adoption trends
• Display cover adoption scenario
• Display cover adoption rate forecast 2015-2020
Apple Sapphire ecosystem and strategy
• Apple supply chain: overview
• 2014 revenue from Apple
• Optical wafers supply chain
• Apple Watch supply Chain
• Discussion
• Display cover supply chain overview: GTAT, Biel and Lens
• GTAT – Apple partnership: what went wrong?
• What’s next for GTAT and the mesa furnace
• iPhone display covers: current status
• Partial roll out in a premium model
• Full roll out in major iPhone model(s)
• Material supply chain requirements
• Most significant capacity investments 2014-2016
• Material capacity evolution 2014-2016
• Who will supply Apple display covers?
• Who will supply material for Apple display covers?
• Conclusions
Crystal growth technologies for display covers
• Sapphire growth methods for display covers: KY etc…
• Sapphire technology-VHGF
• HEM CHESS
• EFG Method
• Orientation for display covers
Sapphire display cover manufacturing cost
• 2014 cost model
• Sapphire brick-GTAT ASF cost
• Sapphire brick-Kyropoulos cost
• Brick cost modeling Results
• Discussions
• Brick cost structure
• Yields impact
• Full display cover cost
• Conclusions
Alternative technologies for display covers
• Strengthened glass-Gorilla glass
• Alternative technologies-Coatings
• Schott “Hard and clear” solution
• Alternative technologies-Exfoliation & laminates
• Alternative technologies-DLC
• Transparent ceramics: ALON TM & spinel
LED market overview
• LED market growth cycles
• LED adoption trends per application
• General lighting market segmentation and main drivers
• Previous LED market forecast (2014)
• Updated LED forecast
• Discussion
• LED bulb lifetimes
• LED market Trends-Display
Alternative LED substrates
• Gan-on-Si overview
• GaN-on-Si cost of ownership
• Gan-on-Si adoption
• Key players and strategic positioning
• GaN-On-Gan
• Alternative substrates adoption forecast
LED Epitaxy (MOCVD) capacity trends
• Gan MOCVD capacity 2010-2015 evolution per region
• GaN MOCVD capacity supply vs demand trends
• Gan MOCVD Q3-2015 utilization rate per region
• Gan MOCVD Q3-2015 utilization rate in China
• Geographic breakdown and conclusions
LED wafer market & forecast
• LED wafer forecast methodology
• LED wafers value chain
• Sapphire wafer consumption Q3-2015 geographic breakdown
• Incentive for adoption of large diameter wafers
• Challenges for the adoption of large diameter wafers
• Q3-2015 Diameter breakdown per region
• Q3-2015 Diameter breakdown-global
• 6” adoption and beyond
• LED wafer diameter breakdown forecast 2012-2020
• 2008-2020 sapphire wafer start by diameter
• Patterned sapphire substrates–benefits
• When are PSS used?
• Pattern design
• PSS manufacturing process overview
• Lithography techniques for LED
• Nano-Imprint Litography
• PSS market: historical perspectives
• Q3-2015 CSS and PSS consumption per region
• PSS supply chain
• 2008-2020 CSS and PSS volume forecast
• 2008-2020 core shipment forecasts
• 2008-2020 LED wafer revenue forecast
LED filaments
• Overview
• Filament material
• Filament manufacturing process
• Performance and cost
• Analysis
• LED filament 2012-2020 shipment and revenue forecast
Aurora Sapphire (哈尔滨奥瑞德光电技术股份有限公司)
• Overview
• 2011-2015 revenue and gross margins trends
• Growth technology and cost control
• 2012-2015 ASP and gross margins trends per product
• 2012-2014 capacity and utilization rates trends
• 2015 capacity expansion plans
• 2012-2014 revenue by product & application
• 2014 revenue breakdown by product & application
• 2012-2014 revenue geographic breakdown
• Major customers 2012-2014
LENS Technology (蓝思科技股份有限公司)
• Overview
• Capacity
• Revenue breakdown by product and customers
• Sapphire revenue breakdown
• Sapphire investment status and future plans
Other Company Profiles
• BIEL Crystal (伯恩光学有限公司)
• Biel-Roshow Sapphire (伯恩露笑蓝宝石有限公司)
• Sapphire technology
• Rubicon technology
• Monocrystal
• Saifei (广东赛翡蓝宝石科技有限公司)
• Crystal Optech (浙江水晶光电科技股份有限公司)
• NJC (南京京晶光电科技有限公司)
• Kama Crystal
购买该报告请联系:
麦姆斯咨询 吴越
电话:[1**********];电子邮箱:[email protected]
若需要《蓝宝石应用及市场-2015版:从LED 到消费电子》样刊,请发E-mail :[email protected]