当前中国玉米深加工行业发展现状与政策调控

当前中国玉米深加工行业发展现状与政策调控Current Status and Policy Control of China’s Industrial Corn Industry上海汇易咨询有限公司资讯部总经理陈艳荣Jenny Chen, General Manager Assistant, Shanghai JC Intelligence Co., Ltd. www.chinajci.com

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由于我国玉米供求关系日益趋紧，去年年底以来我国玉米深加工行业持续遭受政府宏观政策连续调控，不仅原料收购受限，同时企业贷款，进项税抵扣，能耗等多方面也遭受冷遇。但是在我国白糖等产品价格历史高位支撑下，部分产业链延伸较长的企业依旧有利可图，导致当前玉米供应青黄不接阶段价格加速上涨。随着新玉米上市脚步日益临近以及新的市场年度来临，我国玉米深加工行业政府后续政策调控及未来发展动向也成为我们关注的焦点。

With corn supply becoming tighter and tighter,China ’s government has China’

strengthened its control on the industrial corn processing industry since late last strengthened its control on the industrial corn processing industry since late last year, but some enterprises with long production chain continues to enjoy good t o enjoy good

margins thanks to the historically high sugar price in China. With new corn availability margins thanks to the historically high sugar price in China. With new corn availability approaching, how the policy control and development trend may gofor the industrial corn processing industry has been drawing market attention.

提纲(Topics for Discussion)一、近年来我国玉米深加工行业发展情况概述Overview on China’s Industrial Corn Development in Recent Years二、目前我国玉米深加工行业发展主要特征Main Features in China’s Industrial Corn Processing Industry三、当前我国宏观政策对深加工行业的影响

Impact of Government Macro-Control on Industrial Corn Industry

四、我国玉米深加工行业发展后市初步展望

Brief Outlook on China’s Industrial Corn Processing Industry

ØＪＣＩ：玉米深加工产品对玉米增值百分率估算Value Increase for Different Industrialized Corn Products备注：１）此计算为业内按照２００５年９月份玉米价格１１００元／吨以及当时深加工产品价格估算结果，与目前情况可能有所出入；２）此估算只计算对吨玉米加工后产值增加的百分比，未计算利润水平。（２）我国玉米深加工主要产品产量情况

Output of Main Industrialized Corn Products in China

ØＪＣＩ：２０００－２０１１年我国玉米深加工主要产品产量表

ØＪＣＩ：

２０００－２０１１年我国深加工主要产品玉米消耗量变化2000-2010 China’s Corn Consumption by Industrial Sector

ØＪＣＩ：２０１０年我国玉米深加工产能及前十大玉米淀粉生产企业

China ’s top 10 corn starch producers and industrial corn processing capacity by province备注：２０１０年排名前十大企业玉米淀粉产量合计１１５５万吨，占到全国玉米淀粉总产量的５５％左右。

ØＪＣＩ：当前我国玉米深加工产能分省图

Ｃｈｉｎａ’ｓ　ｉｎｄｕｓｔｒｉａｌ　ｃｏｒｎ　ｐｒｏｃｅｓｓｉｎｇ　ｃａｐａｃｉｔｙ　ｂｙ　ｐｒｏｖｉｎｃｅ

备注：以上为ＪＣＩ统计各省规模加工企业产量，部分小型企业可能未纳入统计

（３）我国玉米深加工行业发展频繁遭受政策调控

China ’s industrial corn processing industry continues to meet with government macro control in recent years

Ø政策调控的背景(Background for government macro-control)

Ø政策调控的背景

(Background for government macro-control)备注：玉米产量以ＪＣＩ２０１１年８月份预测各地区产量为基数Ø政策调控主要措施(Main Measures of Policy Control)

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ll二、目前我国深加工行业发展主要特征

Main Features in China’s Industrial Corn Processing Industry１、食糖价格历史高位提振我国淀粉糖发展前景良好

（Historically hiked sugar price boosts Chinese starch sugar production growth)

Ø目前我国食糖价格已创历史高位

２、部分产业链延伸较长品种加工利润丰厚

Good profits for enterprises with long production chainØ２０１１年以来我国赖氨酸加工利润变化

2011 lysine production margin Change in China

３、玉米深加工生产与饲料养殖行业效益情况

Margin Comparison for China’s industrial corn production and animal farming in recent yearsØ我国生猪、玉米淀粉以及酒精效益情况Pig farming and corn starch, ethanol producing margin

Ø玉米在不同行业以及不同区域产值与效益情况比较

Value of corn in different industry and different region

备注：１、以上价格均以８月２５日价格为基础；

２、以上计算为粗略估算的理论值，与实际水平可能有差异；

中国汇易CHINAJCI ３、玉米的能源属性及燃料乙醇加工利润情况

Price relation between CBOT corn and crude oil

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４、深加工副产品国际贸易形势

International trade of industrialized corn by-products

Ø２０１１年以来我国ＤＤＧＳ进口量受反倾销影响下降明显

中国汇易CHINAJCI Ø国产ＤＤＧＳ

价格上升明显China ’s local DDGs price shows marked rise

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Ø近年来我国杂粕进口量显著上升

China ’s other protein meal imports gain marked increase

中国汇易CHINAJCI 三、当前我国宏观政策对深加工行业的影响Impact of Government Macro-

Control on Industrial Corn Industry１、原料玉米限收与禁拍是企业面临的最大难题；众多小型企业陷入

原料与利润双重困境，开工率明显下降，转型势在必行中国汇易

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２、深加工企业盈利水平明显分化

Production margins vary much among enterprises with different size

山东西王：主营业务玉米油和胚芽粕，２０１１年上半年净利增长３１％，

其中散装玉米油和胚芽粕毛利率分别同比增长３．８％和１．２％

中粮生化：二季度净利同比上升２１％，毛利率为１２％，上升５％；燃料

乙醇及副产品毛利率－３．８５％，但该业务的政府补贴仍为主要利润来

源。同时，柠檬酸和氨基酸类产品毛利率也持续提升。

备注：２００４年以来某定点燃料乙醇生产企业所获补贴变化（单位：元／吨）

CHINAJCI ３、年初政策限收背景下不同企业应对之策Enterprises’countermeasures under government macro control政策限收意图：减少玉米市场收购主体，为国储补库让道，同时避

免国内玉米价格过快上涨以及深加工与动物争粮；政策实际效果：因缺乏监管，难以达到预期效果企业应对之策：１、深加工企业厂门收购暂停，但维持暗地购买；

２、暗地收购价格更高，成本向下游产品转嫁；

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４、大型规模化企业持续扩张（例举）

continual expansion by large-sized enterprises--(example)

CHINAJCI 四、我国深加工行业发展后市展望Brief outlook on China

’s industrial corn processing industry１、政策宏观调控仍将贯穿玉米深加工行业发展相当长时期，直至供求拐点出现２、原料受限下，深加工行业增速或将放缓：增速由１０％以上下降至５％左右甚至以下３、全球货币供应充斥、通货膨胀压力巨大下，深加工产品价格应持

续在相对高位运行

４、深加工产品出口限制性政策难改，进口或呈逐年上升态势

l出口：２０１０年７月１５日起取消玉米淀粉及酒精出口退税５％；

今年以来关于氨基酸出口退税取消或下调传言不断

l进口：通货膨胀压力下，整体进口量应呈逐年上升趋势

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５、不同深加工品种政策将趋于分化：

２０１１年产业结构调整指导目录：

l鼓励类：玉米胚芽油生产线；发酵法生产小品种氨基酸（赖氨酸、谷氨酸除外）；新型酶制剂、多元醇、功能性发酵制品（功能性糖

类）等

l限制类：白酒、酒精生产线；年加工玉米３０万吨以下、绝干收率

９８％以下玉米淀粉湿法生产线、

总结：与前几年规划的“提高淀粉糖、多元醇产量，稳定淀粉产量，控制味精、赖氨

酸等供过于求的产品产量，控制使用玉米来发展酒精和乙醇基本吻合。

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总结（summary) ：CHINAJCI 在我国玉米市场供需拐点已现，深加工被指与饲料养殖行业争粮的大背景下，综观当前国内经济形势与调控物价的紧迫性，后期我国玉米深加工行业发展进程中仍将难免频繁遭遇政策调控。但是在小型企业发展遭遇原料与成本双重压力下，大型企业部分加工利润较好品种生产线扩张势头仍将有望“曲进”中得以延续。随着今年新玉米上市步伐临近，今年我国深加工企业原料收购将面临何种政策指引值得关注，但放松的可能

性极小。With corn supply/demand situation in China coming to the turningpoint, industrial corn processing industry widely blamed for the competition for corn source with feed industry, and China under great pressure of price control,JCI deems that China’s industrial corn processing industry may be hard to get rid of the government macro-

control in the future. However, with small-sized enterprises suffering pressure from both raw material supply shortage and high cost, some large-sized enterprises may continue their expansion amid fluctuation thanks to good margins from some products. With the availability of new corn approaching, what kind of corn procurement policy will be set for China ’s industrial corn processing industry draws wide attention, but generally speaking there is slim possibility for the procurement policy to be loosened this year.

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总结（summary) ：CHINAJCI

我们也注意到，目前深加工与养殖行业加工利润差异较大以及不同

区域加工利润也存在分化，同时政策调控品种间也存在差异性，预计后期我国玉米深加工行业发展将更具区域性和复杂性。但是，产区玉米深加工龙头企业在地方政府利益驱使下，仍将会迎来一个较快的扩张时期，北方产区玉米南下供应数量趋势将可能呈现逐年下降的趋

势，应引起我国政府有关部门及相关厂商的高度关注。We have also

noticed that currently the production margin from industrial corn and feed industry as well as among different regions vary a lot, and government macrocontrol also differs depending on the products. It is predictable China’s industry corn industry

development may show characteristic of regionality and complexity. However, the

leading enterprises in the producing regions are hopeful to haverelatively fast

development with the support from local government, while corn supply from the

northern producing regions to the southern consuming regions maytrend down as

years go by, which the government as well as related enterprisesshould pay high

attention to.