房地产英文文献
Global Real
Estate Trends
Adrienne Warren (416) 866-4315 Focus On Canada’s
Housing Market p. 2 >
Modest Firming In Global Housing Markets Through Mid-Year
Aggressive monetary policy easing, which has anchored short-term interest rates in many countries near historic lows, alongside pent-up demand are helping to reinvigorate global property markets. Notwithstanding the sluggish pace of economic activity and elevated financial market volatility, inflation-adjusted home prices strengthened year-over-year in the second quarter in the majority of countries in our survey (chart 1). The turnaround is most notable in a number of advanced nations such as the United States and the United Kingdom, but prices are re-accelerating again in some emerging markets as well, including China.
The United States maintains its position near the top of our international ranking, with inflation-adjusted home prices rising 8% y/y in Q2. Demand is being bolstered by moderate job growth and near record housing affordability, while low inventories and fewer distressed sales are supporting prices. We expect rising mortgage rates will moderate, but not derail the recovery, which is still in its early stages from a cyclical standpoint. Household finances have improved, consumer confidence is rising and lending conditions are slowly easing. There is also considerable pent-up demand for housing following the multi-year downturn.
Canadian housing activity remains buoyant, though the underlying fundamentals for continued gains are becoming less favourable. Average inflation-adjusted home prices increased 2½% y/y in Q2 alongside strengthening sales volumes. Low borrowing costs and balanced market conditions continue to attract buyers, though slowing job Chart 1: Real House Prices growth and the recent uptick in fixed mortgage rates will likely cool Chart 1: Real House Pricesactivity later in the year and into 2014. Affordability also is
Peru**
Chinachallenged in some of Canada’s largest urban centres, primarily for Colombia*
U.S.
single-family homes. Indonesia
Switzerland
ChileA number of European property markets are showing early signs of Thailand
Germany***
revival, mirroring the nascent pickup in economic activity and Sweden
consumer confidence. The U.K. housing recovery is becoming more
Brazil
Australiabroad based, supported by ‘Help to Buy’ stimulus measures Canada
U.K.
introduced in the 2013 budget. Real prices moved back above year-Mexico
ago levels in Q2 for the first time in 2½ years. Sweden and
IrelandIndiaSwitzerland reported steady real price growth in the second quarter. Japan*
South Korea Russia2013Q2,
France*y/y % chgConditions are weaker in the periphery. Spain’s property market Italy*remains in a deep slump. While the rate of price decline is slowing, Spain
there is limited prospect of a near-term turnaround with the nation’s -20-1001020jobless rate stuck at over 25%. Irish
property prices appear to be *2013Q1 **2012Q4 ***2012
*2013Q1 **2012Q4 ***2012. Source: Scotiabank Source: Scotiabank Economics
Economics
Scotiabank Economics
This report has been prepared by Scotiabank Economics as a resource for the clients of Scotiabank.
Opinions, estimates and projections contained herein are our own as of the date hereof and are Scotia Plaza 40 King Street West, 63rd Floor
subject to change without notice. The information and opinions contained herein have been Toronto, Ontario Canada M5H 1H1
compiled or arrived at from sources believed reliable but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy or completeness. Neither Scotiabank nor its affiliates accepts
bottoming as demand slowly picks up. However, record mortgage arrears topping 12% of outstanding loans are a significant hurdle to a sustainable housing recovery.
Asian property markets are for the most part holding up in the face of slowing regional growth. Despite official policy efforts in recent years to rein in credit demand, real house prices accelerated in the vast majority of major cities in China in Q2. Australian, Indonesian and Thai property markets also gained momentum in the April to June period, though conditions remain weak in India and South Korea, with prices contracting modestly last quarter.
Latin American property markets are mixed, with strong price growth in Chile, Peru and Colombia underpinned by relatively solid domestic demand and labour markets. Real house prices in Mexico are flat, with modest nominal price appreciation eroded by persistent inflation. Meanwhile, a weakening economy and high interest rates have led to a sharp cooling in Brazil’s previously red-hot housing market.
Global Real Estate Trends
600
Chart 2: Canadian Home Resales Chart 2: Canadian Home
Resales
000s, annualized10-year average
500
400
300
200
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics
Focus on Canada’s Housing Market
Canadian housing activity remains quite buoyant, supported by low borrowing costs and reasonably healthy employment conditions. Home resales, after declining through the latter half of 2012, recovered over the spring and summer. The volatile pattern of sales may reflect in part uncertainty
surrounding repeated moves by Ottawa to tighten mortgage rules and lending guidelines in order to slow the housing market’s momentum. Year-to-date, national home sales are trending slightly below last year’s levels, and are in line with the average pace of the past decade (chart 2).
Home prices also are proving resilient. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI), which takes into account changes in the mix of sales by housing type and location, shows national prices tracking around 2-3% year-over-year. This modest rate of house price appreciation is consistent with balanced market conditions and long-term house price inflation.
Regionally, Alberta continues to show the strongest overall conditions, as strong population inflows and full-time job growth fuel growing housing demand. Activity in British Columbia remains on the softer side despite some recovery in sales and pricing in recent months. In most other provinces, sales volumes are fairly ‘typical’ and market conditions balanced.
Buyers are taking advantage of still attractive borrowing costs,
notwithstanding the recent upward drift in fixed mortgage rates. Indeed, the prospect of rate increases may have drawn in potential homeowners from the sidelines. Demand also is supported by immigration and population growth, and mirrors strengthening consumer confidence.
New home construction and building permit demand have also firmed in recent months. However, the 183,000 annualized housing units initiated this year is well below last year’s 215,000 units, and in line with underlying
[***********]
Chart 3: Canadian Housing Chart 3: Canadian Housing Starts
Starts
000s of units, annualized
Multi-unitSingle-family
[1**********]012
Source: CMHC, Scotiabank Economics
[1**********]20
Chart 4: Canadian Household Credit Chart 4: Canadian Household
Credit
y/y % change
Residential
Mortgages
Consumer Credit
[1**********]012
Source: Bank of Canada, Scotiabank Economics
household formation requirements (chart 3). The reduction in starts has been focused on multi-unit projects, primarily in Toronto and Montreal, as builders react to reduced new home demand and rising unsold inventory.
Underlying fundamentals are less conducive to a further ramping up in housing activity. Any pent-up demand from last year’s slowdown has been satisfied with sales now back in line with historical averages. Moderating job growth — employment gains have averaged 13,000 per month this year, half the average gain in 2012 — also should temper demand.
Canadian households appear increasingly reluctant to take on additional debt, heading to repeated warnings from policymakers. Consumer credit and
mortgage growth is advancing at its slowest pace in over a decade (chart 4). The household savings rate is trending up.
Housing affordability at a national level is still within historical norms, with high home prices offset by ultra-low borrowing costs (chart 5). However, affordability is expected to become a bigger challenge for buyers over the coming year with interest rates now drifting up. The deterioration in
affordability should be manageable under a gradual upward trajectory for interest rates, moderate income growth and modest to flat home price
increases. A sharp spike in interest rates, a decline in household incomes or a re-acceleration in home price appreciation pose a greater risk. National
affordability measures mask more strained conditions in several major centres, primarily for single-family homes in Toronto and Vancouver.
Homeowners have a number of options in the face of rising borrowing costs. Variable rate mortgages are expected to remain near historic lows in 2014, and move up only slowly thereafter as the Bank of Canada gradually normalizes monetary policy. Many homebuyers are insulating themselves to a higher rate environment by locking in at historically low rates. For homeowners with a mortgage coming up for renewal, most face a lower rate today relative to the discounted rate available 1, 3 and 5 years ago.
The combination of moderately higher interest rates and slowing job growth will likely dampen home sales later this year and into 2014. Meanwhile, increased supply should limit price gains. However, the risk of a large price correction nationally remains low barring a major adverse shock such as a sharp rise in unemployment. Sellers have been responsive to shifts in supply conditions, mortgage quality is solid, and arrears rates are low and edging lower (chart 6).
Slowing home sales should in turn lead to a reduction in new home
construction. We expect starts will fall to about 170,000 units in 2014, below demographic replacement demand. A period of below-average construction will help absorb excess housing stock. Unsold inventory has been creeping up in recent years with starts exceeding household formation trends, but is not particularly high from a historical perspective (chart 7).
Global Real Estate Trends
0.70
Chart 5: Canadian Housing Chart 5: Canadian Housing
Affordability Affordability
Mortgage payment /
PDI per worker
National Average
0.60
0.50
Long-term average
0.40
0.30
0.20
90
95
00
05
10
Source: Scotiabank Economics
0.800.700.600.500.400.300.200.100.00
90
Chart 6: Canadian Residential Chart 6: Canadian Residential
Mortgage Arrears Mortgage Arrears
% of mortgages 30 days or more past due
95000510
Source: CBA, Scotiabank Economics
Chart 7: Completed & Unsold
Housing Inventory
16
units per 10,000 population 25+[1**********]
90950005
Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics
10
Multis
Singles & Semis
Canada’s Major Condo Markets Are Rebalancing
Potential overbuilding of condominiums in a number of major urban centres remains a concern, especially in light of recent evidence that demand is waning. In Toronto, where reasonably good data on new home sales are available, purchases of both new low-rise and high-rise homes have fallen sharply over the past year. Reduced expected returns have dampened
investor demand for new condos, while high prices and supply constraints have undercut low-rise sales. Sales of resale condominiums are holding up better, evidence that demand by owner occupiers (which dominate resales) remains healthy.
Homebuilders are responding to the shift in market conditions. Toronto housing starts dropped from a record 48,000 units last year to a 33,000 annual rate over the first eight months of 2013 (chart 8). Based on annual household formation of close to 38,000 from 2006-2011, starts have moved back below underlying housing demand.
The slowdown primarily reflects fewer high-rise projects breaking ground. Toronto apartment starts have fallen almost in half this year, from 30,000 units in 2012 to an annual rate of 16,000 from January through July. Given the weakening trend in new home sales, construction will likely move even lower over the coming year. Toronto apartment starts fell to an annual rate of 13,000 in 2009-2010 following the recession slump in sales.
Despite the slowdown in starts, a record number of completed condominium units will come onto the Toronto market over the next two years. Given strong condominium rental demand — lease transactions reached a record high in Q2 — low vacancy rates and rising rents, we expect a large number of investor-owned units can be absorbed by the rental market. Even so, new supply will likely outstrip demand, putting some downward pressure on new and resale condominium prices.
There are also potential imbalances emerging in the Montreal and Vancouver condominium markets. Here too builders are slowing the pace of new
construction in order to reduce inventories — apartment starts this year are down roughly 30% and 10%, respectively (charts 9 and 10). Data on new condominium sales for these markets are limited, though resale reports point to somewhat softer conditions.
Over the medium term, a number of factors will continue to support homeownership condominium demand. These include the high cost of single-family homes in Canada’s largest urban centres, lifestyle
considerations (e.g. the desire for shorter commutes and lower maintenance) and demographic shifts (e.g. immigration, an aging population and the rise in one-person households). From a supply perspective, development restrictions and land constraints are expected to continue to promote urban intensification.
Global Real Estate Trends
[**************]0
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CMHC, Scotiabank Economics
Chart 8: Toronto Housing Chart 8: Toronto Housing Starts
Starts
000s of units, annualized
Single-familyMulti-unit
25
Chart 9: Montreal Housing Chart 9: Montreal Housing Starts
Starts
000s of units, annualized
Single-familyMulti-unit
20
15
10
5
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CMHC, Scotiabank Economics
20
Chart 10: Vancouver Housing Chart 10: Vancouver Housing Starts
Starts
000s of units, annualized
Single-family
15
Multi-unit
10
5
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CMHC, Scotiabank Economics
Canadian Residential Markets
New Home Construction
300
000s of units, a.r.
y/y % change
2015
250
New Housing
Price Index
10
Global Real Estate Trends
20050
150
Housing Starts
100
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
-5-10
Existing Home Sales
400
$, 000s
Unit Sales
300
400
000s of units, a.r.
600
Existing Home Inventory
3.5
ratio of new listings-to-sales3.02.52.0
Roughly Balanced
Market
500
200
Average Price
300
1.51.0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics.
100
[**************]4Source: CREA, Scotiabank Economics.
06
08
10
12
200
Housing Starts
Canada
(000s units, sa)
[***********]112012
2013ytd2013f2014f(units, nsa)
[***********]1120122013ytd
[***********]183180170Vancouver20,73619,5918,33915,21717,86719,02719,788
B.C.39.234.316.126.526.427.5262523Calgary13,50511,4386,3189,2629,29212,84113,877
Alberta48.329.220.327.125.733.4353632Edmonton14,8886,6156,3179,9599,33212,83717,241
Sask.6.06.83.95.97.010.0877Toronto33,29342,21225,94929,19539,74548,10537,330
Manitoba5.75.54.25.96.17.2776Ottawa9,29410,3028,9309,1338,2148,7859,358
Ontario68.175.150.460.467.876.7605654Montreal23,23321,92719,25122,00122,71920,59116,586
Quebec48.647.943.451.448.447.4373838Halifax2,4892,0961,7332,3902,9542,7543,357
Atlantic12.412.210.912.812.512.6111110St. John’s1,4801,8631,7031,8161,9232,1531,730
Source: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Scotiabank Economics calculations and forecasts. Year-to-date data are expressed at annual rates.
Canadian Residential Markets
Residential Mortgage Rates
[**************]
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Bank of Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Prime
%
5-Year Conventional
876543290
92
94
Global Real Estate Trends
Household Mortgage Debt Service
% of disposable income
Mortgage Interest
Payments
[***********]
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Residential Mortgage Credit
20
y/y % change15
Residential Mortgages
0.60.8
Residential Mortgage Arrears
% of mortgages in arrears three or more months
Mortgage Arrears
100.4
50.2
090
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Bank of Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
0.0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Canadian Bankers Association (CBA), Scotiabank Economics.
Home Sales
AtlanticCanadaBritish ColumbiaAlbertaMan.-Sask.OntarioQuebec
Avg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnits
[***********]1120122013ytd
307,089304,944320,342339,106362,716363,740372,096
521,016431,739464,962446,692458,636453,372444,996
439,119454,599465,725505,178561,304514,836521,470
102,80568,92385,02874,64076,72167,63767,339
357,483353,748341,818352,301353,394363,208376,024
70,95456,04557,54349,72353,75660,36963,629
171,526205,026215,814231,235246,659260,264269,460
26,46824,06324,18124,03627,07527,95826,837
299,544302,287318,313342,376365,980385,519393,606
213,336180,937195,737195,372200,558196,383193,294
207,531215,323225,368241,455252,145260,559271,864
80,64776,75279,10880,02777,17177,46372,024
158,589171,258182,640193,174201,009208,952210,196
26,25824,53222,84422,46122,91223,10421,430
VancouverCalgaryEdmontonTorontoOttawaMontrealHalifaxAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnitsAvg. PriceUnits
[***********]1120122013ytd
570,795593,767592,441675,853779,730730,063746,906
38,97825,14936,25731,14432,93625,44525,949
414,066405,267385,882398,764402,851412,315432,054
32,17623,13624,88020,99622,46626,63428,428
338,636332,852320,378328,803325,595334,318340,866
20,42717,36919,13916,40316,96317,64118,778
377,029379,943396,154432,264466,352498,973511,637
95,16476,38789,25588,21491,76088,15785,807
273,058290,483304,801328,439344,791352,610354,652
14,73913,90814,92314,58614,55114,49713,901
250,213259,046271,677292,919307,462318,240327,488
43,66640,44041,75342,29840,35740,13336,590
216,339232,106239,158253,610260,950270,742275,123
7,2616,4726,0625,9446,1196,2395,078
Source: Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), QFREB, Scotiabank Economics calculations. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
Canadian Non-Residential Markets
Office Markets
[1**********]00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Scotiabank Economics.
%
National Central
OfficeVacancy Rate
[1**********]
01
02%
Global Real Estate Trends
Industrial Markets
National Industrial Vacancy Rate
[***********]1213
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Scotiabank Economics.
Office Vacancy Rates Largest Five Markets
[1**********]00
01Ottawa02
03
2
Industrial Vacancy Rates Largest Four Markets
10
%
Montreal
Toronto
6
%
Montreal
8
Toronto
4
Calgary
Calgary04
05
06
07
Vancouver
Vancouver
[***********][***********]1213
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Scotiabank Economics.
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Scotiabank Economics.
Building Permits
Building Permits
400
index: 1999Q1 = 100
300
Residential
200
100
Industrial
000
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics.
Institutional & Government
TotalRes.Indust.Comm.
Inst. & Gov’t6.97.88.68.58.08.08.3
[***********]1120122013ytd
74.470.461.072.474.080.980.8
(C$ billions)45.55.017.040.95.116.734.73.913.843.55.115.444.55.216.348.46.517.948.1
5.5
18.9
Source: Statistics Canada, Scotiabank Economics. Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates.
U.S. Residential Markets
2.42.01.61.2
Single-Unit
0.8
Multiple-Unit
0.40.0
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
Total
Global Real Estate Trends
Housing Starts
mns of units, a.r.
1.21.00.80.60.40.20.0
90
92
94
Housing Starts by Region
mns of units, a.r.
South
West
MidwestNortheast
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
New Home Sales
1.61.41.21.00.80.60.40.2
90
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
Average Price
mns of units, a.r., 3MMA
Unit Sales
[1**********]0
$, 000s, 3MMA
350300
876543290
92
94
96
Existing Home Sales
mns of units, a.r., 3MMA
$, 000s,3MMA
300250
Average Price
200150
Unit Sales (Singles only)
10050
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR), Scotiabank Economics.
Housing Starts
Total
[***********]1120122013ytd2013f2014f
1.3550.9060.5540.5870.6090.7810.9120.941.14
Singles1.0460.6220.4450.4710.4310.5350.611
Multiples
West
South
Midwest0.2100.1350.0970.0980.1010.1280.135
North East0.1430.1210.0620.0710.0680.0800.095
Total
Permits
Single
Multiple
(millions of units)0.3090.3210.6810.2840.1960.4530.1090.1170.2780.1160.1200.2970.1780.1320.3080.2450.1750.3980.302
0.216
0.467
(millions of units)
1.3980.9800.4190.9050.5760.3300.5830.4410.1420.6050.4470.1570.6240.4180.2060.8300.5190.3110.944
0.608
0.336
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics calculations and forecasts.
Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates.
U.S. Residential Markets
Mortgage Rates and Applications
987654300
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
09
10
11
12
13
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), FHLMC, Scotiabank Economics.
3
30-Year Mortgage Rate
21
0-290
92
94
2
Global Real Estate Trends
Housing Costs
6
8
Consumer Price Index, y/y % change64
Rent of Primary Residence
%
index
MBA Mortgage Application Index –Purchases Only
54
Owners' Equivalent Rent
[***********]
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Scotiabank Economics.
New and Existing Home Inventories
14
months' supply, 3MMA1210864290
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors (NAR), Scotiabank Economics.
NewExisting
[1**********]290
92
94
%
Apartment Vacancy Rates
Midwest
South
WestNortheast
[***********]
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics.
Total
[***********]1120122013ytd
(sa)5.0404.1104.3404.1904.2604.6605.056
Existing Home Sales
Avg Price Months’ ($000s)Supply(nsa)(nsa)263.88.7240.410.0217.18.3220.29.0212.98.1224.05.8241.2
4.9
West1.070
0.9901.1301.0801.1301.1601.211
South
Midwest
New Home Sales
Avg Price Months’ North
Total
($000s)SupplyEast
(million units, saar, unless otherwise noted)2.0701.1900.7200.769308.88.41.5900.9500.5700.482288.910.71.6400.9800.5900.374268.29.01.6300.9100.5700.321271.58.01.6800.9100.5400.306263.46.61.8401.0700.5900.368285.44.82.014
1.183
0.647
0.440
313.2
4.4
Source: National Association of Realtors (NAR), U.S. Census Bureau, Scotiabank Economics calculations.
Year-to-date data are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates.
International Residential Markets
Inflation-Adjusted Home Prices
Global Real Estate Trends
400
1996=100
Ireland
U.K.
400
1996=100
300300
Spain
200200
France
100100
096
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Scotiabank Economics
096
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Scotiabank Economics
400
1996=100
400
1996=100
300
Sweden
300
200
Australia
100
200
Italy
100
Switzerland
096
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Scotiabank Economics
096
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Scotiabank Economics
400
1996=100
400
1996=100
300
Canada
300
200200
Germany
Japan
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
100
United States
100
096
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
Source: Scotiabank Economics
Source: Scotiabank Economics
Global Economics
September 11, 2013
International Residential Markets
International House Prices(Inflation-adjusted*, y/y % change)
2004
AustraliaCanadaFranceGermanyIrelandItalyJapanSpainSwedenSwitzerlandUnited KingdomUnited StatesRussiaBrazilChileColombiaMexicoPeruChinaIndiaIndonesiaSouth KoreaThailand
4.27.412.8-2.88.93.8-6.215.39.01.610.56.317.17.6 ..6.7 ..7.0 .. ..-2.1-2.42.6
2005-1.27.713.5-3.910.05.5-4.811.28.6-0.13.46.110.93.6-1.54.1 ..-6.1 .. ..-6.5-2.03.5
20064.29.210.1-2.811.83.6-3.66.510.81.44.0-2.038.48.7-5.23.33.0-4.1 .. ..-7.83.9-0.9
20079.08.65.0-1.25.62.9-1.12.68.21.38.6-5.035.314.1-2.110.83.62.4
20080.1-3.1-2.3-1.7-9.0-0.9-2.6-3.9-0.20.3-4.6-12.710.317.1-2.16.7-0.522.1
20091.74.7-7.2-0.2-16.6-1.3-2.4-7.31.95.5-10.0-9.3-12.419.10.45.50.114.1-1.0-5.9-2.6-2.65.2
20109.14.13.40.9-11.6-1.5-3.1-5.76.64.04.0-0.21.419.51.95.3-0.39.41.73.3-2.3-0.5-2.3
Global Real Estate Trends
2011-5.94.13.62.5-14.3-2.2-2.9-9.2-1.93.9-5.4-6.4-29.312.95.36.20.813.7-4.56.2-0.71.2-0.7
2012-2.5-1.2-2.63.6-14.7-5.9-2.7-11.3-2.34.4-1.23.19.96.42.77.60.718.1-4.8-2.20.40.7-1.8
12Q3-2.1-1.5-3.9 ..-14.0-7.1-2.2-12.4-1.94.1-0.65.010.35.32.37.9-0.816.8-4.1-3.5-0.20.30.1
12Q40.3-0.7-3.7 ..-7.9-7.8 ..-13.62.24.0-0.37.110.34.24.38.6-1.215.3-2.00.02.4-1.4-2.0
13Q10.80.2-2.6 ..-4.0-7.8-1.6-11.02.74.0-0.57.6-0.43.56.69.8-0.8
13Q22.72.5 ..-0.9 ..-10.03.35.90.28.0-2.22.95.5-0.5
.. .. ..-4.16.6-1.1
-0.7-7.3-0.7-6.6
3.82.75.7-1.91.5
10.2-1.66.5-1.93.8
* Nominal house prices deflated by national consumer price indices.
Source of nominal house price data:
Australia: Price index of established houses, weighted average of 8 capital cities. Australian Bureau of Statistics.Canada: National average price of existing home sales. Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).
France: Price index of second-hand dwellings. National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).Germany: Resale house price index. Bundesbank unpublished. Bank for International Settlements (BIS).
Ireland: Average price of second-hand houses (before 2006). Irish Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government. Residential Property Price Index, all dwellings (from 2006). Central Statistics Office.Italy: Resale house price index, average of 13 urban areas (before 2011). Bank of Italy. House Price Index, new and existing homes, all dwellings (from 2011). Eurostat/Istat.Japan: Residential urban land price index. Japan Real Estate Institute.Spain: Average price of second-hand houses. Bank of Spain.
Sweden: Real Estate Price Index, buildings for permanent living. Statistics Sweden.Switzerland: Price index for single-family homes. Swiss National Bank.
United Kingdom: Mix-adjusted house price index, all dwellings. U.K. Office for National Statistics.
United States: National average price of existing single-family home sales. National Association of Realtors.Russia: Average price per square metre, existing homes, all dwellings, urban areas. Federal State Statistics Office.Brazil: Residiential real estate collateral value index, all dwellings, urban areas. Central Bank of Brazil.Chile: New House Price Index (IRPV), Greater Santiago, all dwellings. Chilean Chamber of Construction.
Colombia: New House Price Index (IPVN), all dwellings, 23 municipalities. National Administrative Department of Statistics (DANE).Mexico: Housing Price Index (Indice SHF), new and existing homes, all dwellings. Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal.Peru: Price per square meter of apartments, Lima. Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP).
China: Sale price of second-hand residential buildings, Beijing. National Bureau of Statistics of China.
India: Housing Price Index (NHB Residex), new and used homes, all dwellings, 15 cities. National Housing Bank.Indonesia: Residential Property Price Index, new homes, all dwellings, 14 city composite. Central Bank of Indonesia.South Korea: House Price Index, new and existing homes, all dwellings. Bank of Korea.
Thailand: Housing Price Index, single-detached house (incl. land), Bangkok & vicinity, Government Housing Bank loans (before 2009). Bank of Thailand. Housing Price Index, single-detached house (incl. land), Bangkok & vicinity, Commercial Bank loans (from 2009). Bank of Thailand.
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