计量经济学报告英文版

IE REPORT

The analysis of the influence factors of traffic

consumption

Class 2 Name shyta Number 19

Contents

1.Introduction

2．model specification

(1) the analysis of the influencing factors (2) the choice of the data

(3) the model in the form of design

3．The collection of data

4 Establish model and test

T test F test

5. conclusion

1.Introduction

Since the reform and open policy, our country economy

development very fast , people's living standards is raising, traffic consumption is also growing . Along with the improvement of the urban transportation infrastructure and public

transportation industry's rapid development, make our country overall consumer spending on transportation increasing with the growth of population in our country. According to the national bureau of statistics recently released by the consumer price index, residents in terms of transportation cost rises a little higher than other ways.

In view of this, the traffic consumption spending more and more get the attention of social from all walks of life. So ,I made some investigation and research on this question.

2.model specification

As our regional traffic conditions in China, and there is many difference in all aspects of economic development level , so we want to study the main factors influencing the traffic of provinces and cities, and consider the factors as follows: (1) the analysis of the influencing factors

first of all, It is different from the total population, so traffic consumption is inevitable differences . So, with the increase of population, total spending on transportation is increase.

Secondly, because of people's consumption tendency changed little, so with the development of economy, people's income level rises ceaselessly, disposable income increase, and people consumption idea changed, the pursuit of high-grade consumption phenomenon is more and more, so people in traffic consumption will increase along with the development of the economy.

Finally, national spending on transportation industry, to strengthen the construction of transport infrastructure around , improved the traffic conditions , and also changed the people spending on transportation. (2) the choice of the data

In my analysis, we chose the cross-section data of many provinces and cities in 2005. Due to urban and rural traffic situation, there are big differences in people's consumption levels, and urban residents on transportation accounts for the national transportation spending most , so we chose the urban residents in traffic consumer spending is as explained variable, the various provinces and cities of urban population, the disposable income, and the country's transport business spending as explanatory variables. (3) the model in the form of design

Because we believe that the factors about traffic consumer spending has important influence, so we made explained variable (Y) and the urban population (X1), the per capita annual disposable income (X2),the country used for transportation of fiscal spending (X3) to regression, and will set the equation form as: Y i =β0+β1X 1i +β2X 2i +β3X 3i +u i

3. The collection of data

4.Establish model and test

-3.4056986 0.0209979 0.1014664 -263.58232 4.3337264 0.005906 0.0232113 60.35636 0.7233166 90.002794 #N/A #N/A 23.528159 27 #N/A #N/A 571769.75 218713.58 #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A Establish model and test Regression of data collected to establish a preliminary model, the regression results as follows

Y=-263.58232+ 0.1014664X1+0.0209979X2-3.4056986X3 60.35636 0.0232113 0.005906 4.3337264 N=31 R²=0.7233166 X1= the urban population

X2= per capita annual disposable income X3= the country used for transportation of fiscal spending

As the R²=0.7233166 ,so the three Independent variables together explain about 72.3 percent of variation in y for this sample.

The T test

1.Null hypothesis H0: β1=0 alternative hypothesie H1: β1>0

t β1(hat)=0.1014664/0.0232113=4.37142254>c=1.073

because we have 27 degrees of freedom,we can use the standard normal critical values.the 5% critical value is1.703. do reject H0.it is statistically significant

2.Null hypothesis H0: β1=0 alternative hypothesie H1: β1>0

t β2(hat)= 0.0209979/0.005906≈3.554989334>c

because we have 27 degrees of freedom,we can use the standard normal critical values.the 5% critical value is1.703. do reject H0.it is statistically significant

3、Null hypothesis H0: β1=0 alternative hypothesie H1: β1>0

t β3(hat)= 3.4056986 / 4.3337264=0.785859

because we have 27 degrees of freedom,we can use the standard normal critical values.the 5% critical value is1.703. do not reject H0. is not statistically significant

So we revised Establish model by T test

Y=-263.58232+ 0.1014664X1+0.0209979X2

The X1= the urban population and X2= per capita annual disposable income are statistically significant so we can abandon the X3= the country used for transportation of fiscal spending

The F test

As the excel calculate F=23.528159.>c

This number is above the 5% critical value in the F

distribution 27 degrees of freedom, and the critical value is 23.528159,then F>C.

We can reject that the hypothesis. the three variables are jointly significant

conclusion

1, population have impact on traffic consumer spending , the reason is various, mainly include: (1) the greater the population, the greater the traffic consumption in total; (2) the more population, people's consumption behavior also more diversified, increases the demand for all kinds of traffic tools.

2, disposable income consumer spending also has significant influence to the traffic. The higher level of economic development, people's income is higher, in order to improve the quality of life, people pay attention to the diversification of consumption, consumption is becoming more and more big, the scope of trans-regional transnational communication, tourism travel become more frequently, thereby increasing the corresponding traffic consumer spending. Raising the level of disposable income, on the other hand, represents the improvement of economic level, also reflects the business activities more frequently, people for the purpose of business activity, consumer spending will increase the traffic.

Of course, because of my knowledge and ability is limited, establishing the model, I can't included all the important factors, I also please the teacher put forward your valuable advice and guidance.